Ma Guangyuan: Lowering The Standard And Curing The Symptoms Is Not Effective.

It is necessary to reduce interest rates. However, lowering interest rates can not solve the problem of sustained economic power. Therefore, it can not curb the slowdown in economic growth, but only quench thirst, only through policy guidance and change of expectations, but it can not complete the transformation of power for the Chinese economy. The problem of excess capacity in manufacturing and export problems can not be effectively solved through loose money. That is, loose money can not save China's economic life. Lowering interest rates only adds moisture to the Chinese economy, avoiding dehydration shock, and curing the disease.

This reduction is not unexpected, but the intensity of a one-off one percentage point release of nearly 1 trillion and 500 billion of the huge liquidity is indeed a strong drug. Behind the fierce drugs, of course, is the bleak data in the first quarter, and the bleak economic reality than the bleak data. Every time we have cut interest rates sharply, there are many commentators. It is a gluttonous feast for financial professionals. As a member of China who warned China from the end of 2013, the author has been calling on China's monetary policy to face reality. Therefore, the necessity and rationality of reducing accuracy are no longer expounded. In this little article, I want to talk about two points: what can be done to reduce interest rates and what can not be done.

First of all, we should talk about the role of reducing the rate of quasi - interest reduction. The quasi - Fire fuse seems to be bad in the first quarter, but it is not limited to this. The bad macroeconomic data can be solved by adjusting monetary policy. The author has always stressed that in the final stage of the global financial crisis, the emerging markets, including China, will face double predicament: first, the real economy has entered a painful adjustment, which is inevitable. The two reason is that international capital is flowing back to the developed economies. There is a shortage of liquidity in 2013. The shortage of liquidity caused by the shortage of liquidity has become the biggest "new normal" of China's economy. Financing is difficult and financing is outstanding. The root lies in the shortage of liquidity and the only way to solve the liquidity shortage is loose money. Therefore, this pine currency is obviously different from 08 years.

　　 Loose currency After that, one can solve the normal liquidity tension. First, it can prevent. China's economy The risk of deflation will, of course, reduce the financing cost of enterprises to a certain extent, which can be expected.

But loose money can not reverse the downward trend of the macro economy. This must be clear. The author has pointed out that the decline of economic growth is rooted in the fact that the engine of old economic growth is out of order. The past pillars of manufacturing, investment, real estate and export are all exhausted. The engine must be replaced instead of relying on the lubricants of currency to maintain a certain speed. policy Consider the problem. When the engine goes wrong, it is impossible to keep track by lubrication. Therefore, I am looking forward to steady growth through loose currency.

At the same time, loose money can not solve the problem that capital flows into the real industries, such as ensuring that capital flows into small and medium-sized enterprises and flows into the real economy. Because this is not a problem that monetary policy can solve. For a long time, the media and some experts have been clamoring for the release of liquidity to enter the real economy through "orientation". This is just a wishful thinking contrary to basic common sense. In any country, monetary policy is only a policy of total quantity, only if there is water in the pool, it will never manage where the water flows. The author also noted that in the past those who boasted "orientation policy" now quietly gave up their views, which is an improvement. Solving the problem of liquidity of small and medium enterprises and solving the problem of money flow is a topic of financial reform and institutional improvement, which surpasses the original meaning of monetary policy.

Speaking of this, the second question is very good answer. What role can pine currency play? First of all, it will surely pry investment through multiplier effect, and local governments can get cheap funds based on tacit approval from the high level. Secondly, in the case of the stock market's current high sentiment, a large amount of liquidity flows to the stock market is almost inevitable. Third, lowering the real interest rate will stimulate the real estate market. Those cities with a basically balanced supply and demand market and a stock less serious city can borrow the water of money to irrigate the love houses that are hard to cut off. In this way, the biggest beneficiaries of lowering interest rates are clear: local government, stock market and real estate.