Where Will PTA Go In The Off-Season?

From a healthy point of view, this year futures have been in the price structure of premium, and there are more opportunities for relative price difference trading. The main trend is arbitrage. In fact, it is also positive arbitrage and positive arbitrage.

"Spot price and 1509 contract price difference to 200 yuan / ton, then many spot empty 1509 contract is a very good opportunity.

In addition, at this time and price level, PTA still has a certain potential to go up. Prudent investors can leave the field and wait until the end of May and the beginning of June, and the PTA fundamentals will be weakened, making a wave of callbacks.

Wu Wenhai said.

Focusing on April this year, "shortage" seems to be the most important force in the PTA market.

First, the collapse of the Far East Petrochemical Company, and then the overall shutdown of the Xiang Lu petrochemical plant due to the explosion, and the overall supply of PTA has fallen into a tight pattern.

The continuing tension of upstream raw materials makes the downstream purchasing madly, and the downstream prices also rise steadily.

Turning to this change, Hangzhou Youdao Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. responsible person Wang Yong deeply understand.

"In April, following the explosion of Gure, the MEG of Yangzi Petrochemical Company also exploded, followed by the price limit of PTA futures, and the PTA of raw materials continued to rise three times.

Affected by this, our slice rose by 1200 yuan / ton a month, and the goods were moved downstream. "

Wang Yong, frankly speaking, said that under the market sentiment of "buying up or not buying down", the downstream purchasing madly may buy more than forty or fifty days, which will eventually lead to a little bit of tension in the hands of manufacturers.

The start-up of the polyester industry in the downstream seems to confirm this.

At present, the operation rate of polyester bottles, polyester filament and other industries has reached a new high of nearly three years, and the highest operating rate is around 92%.

"In the short run,

The industry has a higher operating rate, which seems to be one.

Right.

The price has certain support.

But far from it, I think it is bad because it has no room for improvement.

Shanghai east Wu nine surplus Cci Capital Ltd energy project manager Wu Wenhai explained that in May polyester and downstream weaving industry has the highest operating rate, that is, the highest output, and the highest output means that the demand for PTA is the largest. After the demand reaches the maximum, it may be faced with the pressure of demand than the return.

Once the space for future operation starts to decline, the demand for PTA will be obviously bad.

For the next PTA trend, Wu Wenhai believes that although the space has been achieved, but time does not fully meet the conditions of short selling, the price may oscillate for some time at the top.

"In particular, we should pay close attention to around June. At this point in time, PTA is more vulnerable to the weakening of traditional off-season."

He said that if the market remained strong in June, then by July, the price will continue to rise kinetic energy will be completely released.