Data Analysis Of Global Cotton Market Outlook

Ray Butler attended the meeting of China Cotton Association and made a speech. Global Cotton industry Cotton supply is adequate, except for the United States in 2014/15, because most of the US cotton has been signed for sale. Now China's cotton industry has encountered many problems, and consumption in general is only a very mild growth. We have seen that in recent years. But in China, the traditional self-sufficiency of cotton targets in the past is a distant memory.

We put forward such a problem. Now China has many. chemical fiber And you can import a lot at low prices. Cotton yarn 。 In the past more than 100 years, China has continuously developed the cotton industry and cotton trade, and the development of China's cotton market and industry is very huge. In the past, you may not see this development for a lifetime.

According to our estimate, China's cotton imports this year are 1 million 700 thousand tons. This is a past figure. Many industry personnel have been looking forward to such a level. In 2015, the quota of some textile factories has not been used up. I think the import of cotton will be further reduced in 2015/16, and there are still some limitations in the quota.

The competition of raw materials in China's cotton industry is mainly the competition between chemical fiber and raw materials. In China, chemical fiber prices are relatively stable, and even lower than cotton prices, prices are very competitive. Although chemical fiber is not a renewable resource, its supply is still very abundant, because chemical fiber products have technological innovation and have many uses. But at the same time, the further increase in the use of chemical fiber has also caused some comments in the market recently.

In the global consumption process, the share of cotton has been declining. Judging from the use of fiber, cotton accounts for about 70% years ago, but it has dropped by nearly 50% from 50 years ago to 60 years ago.

Global cotton consumption reached a peak before the economic crisis in 2008, and then declined, but the Chinese market remained stable during that period. In 2011/12, cotton consumption in China dropped by about 15%.

Statistics tell us that China's cotton Imported The main source countries are still more cotton picking countries, mainly the United States, Australia and Brazil.

Although the market situation is not very good now, compared with 2013/14 in 2014/15, the US cotton export contract did increase by 10%, but the volume of exports to China is basically the same. The US cotton export volume is indeed a lot, and it exceeds the US Department of agriculture's forecast value for us cotton exports. There are also many other places where there is a lot of growth that can be found elsewhere.

I would like to say that the biggest country that has suffered setbacks in export demand is India. India The export volume has reached a relatively low level, so the India government has to intervene directly to help cotton farmers. India's state-run institutions did give a lot of support. India's Cotton Corp bought nearly 9 million bales of cotton, about 1 million 600 thousand tons, and reached 1/4 of India's total output in 2014/15. Of course, India Cotton Corp CCI acquisition of cotton is not an unprecedented situation, India Cotton Corp has repeatedly intervened to support the market, but this year this level of intervention is very rare. Although the situation in India is somewhat similar to that of China's cotton purchase and storage policy, India is not a government purchase, but a Cotton Corp in India. If they want to clear the warehouse, they must sell it, so that they can get funds for the next season. Last week, about 18% of India's cotton stocks were sold in the market. But the remaining inventory is still quite high, at least millions of packages. To get rid of all this inventory, India Cotton Corp needs to sell 13000 tons a day. But this is hard to achieve. There is a more realistic fact that in the new season, the India Cotton Corp may increase its inventory further or will not change. In March, we can see that now India's exports are less than 770 thousand tons, but we can see that it may still be lower than the previous quarter. In addition, the proportion of China's imports of cotton in India is also declining. If China does not buy India cotton, it will be a challenge for India to find another buyer to sell cotton. Judging from the global forecast, the current carry over inventory may be 2 million tons, which may be the fifth consecutive season. Before and after 2012, especially in China, stocks continued to increase, and some other countries were also increasing inventories. Let's look at the output changes in 2015/16, and the possibility of further reduction in cotton production worldwide. At present, a large reduction in cotton in China and the United States. The three largest producers of cotton, China, the United States and India, will have a major impact. The rate of decline in India may be the smallest, which is mainly determined by the rainfall in India during the coming rainy season. According to the data of cotton outlook in Beijing, China's output may be lower than the original 5 million 700 thousand tons, and the output of the United States will also drop.

We need to wait and see whether the growth of demand outside China can really offset the market changes in China.

In addition, chemical fiber will not reduce its price competitiveness in the foreseeable future. China has a great demand for overseas cotton yarn, especially for Southeast Asia.

Ray Butler said it is a great honor to have the opportunity to speak from the meeting you held in 1999. Besides, I am very grateful to the China Cotton Association. I have seen the changes in China's cotton industry and the whole society in the past 16 years. So finally, I want to say that I hope that China's Cotton Association and China's cotton industry will continue to develop successfully, especially in the new cotton future world.