Our Country'S Financial Capital Shows The Debt Ratio Of The Country.

China's "national account" comes out: it can cope with the 1.5 financial crisis.

Before the release of the economic data for half a year, Premier Li Keqiang at the economic forum discussed more than once the issue of "deleveraging".

What's going on?

Recently, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the report on China's national balance sheet 2015. In 2007~2013, the total assets of the state increased from 284 trillion and 700 billion yuan to 691 trillion and 300 billion yuan, an increase of 406 trillion and 600 billion yuan, an average annual growth of 67 trillion and 800 billion yuan. During the same period, the total national liabilities increased from 118 trillion and 900 billion yuan to 339 trillion and 100 billion yuan, an increase of 220 trillion and 200 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 36 trillion and 700 billion yuan.

According to the data, the national debt rate increased from 41.8% to 49%, an increase of 7.2 percentage points, with an average annual increase of 1.2 percentage points.

But this is still a thick "national account book".

One of the report authors, Zhang Xiaojing, deputy director of the national finance and Development Laboratory of the Academy of Social Sciences, said at the press conference that assuming a financial crisis caused GDP to fall by 30%, China's 352 trillion and 200 billion yuan net assets capacity should cope with the 1.5 financial crisis.

The probability of a sovereign debt crisis is small.

The total assets of the state are non-financial assets such as housing, land and enterprises plus net external assets (external investment).

In China's 352 trillion and 200 billion yuan net assets, land net assets accounted for 20%, household net assets accounted for 30%, enterprise net assets accounted for 40%, and external net assets accounted for 5%.

According to the report, the total assets of China in 2013 amounted to 691 trillion and 300 billion yuan, with a total liabilities of 339 trillion and 100 billion yuan and a corresponding net asset of 352 trillion and 200 billion yuan, of which net financial assets were 16 trillion yuan.

In 2007~2013, the national debt ratio increased from 41.8% to 49%, and the overall debt rate increased rapidly. 2009, 2012 and 2013 increased significantly.

Finance and taxation expert Li Wenhai told reporters that the total assets of the state are one of the main indicators of a country's comprehensive national strength, but it has little inspiration on the economic status quo and future policy recommendations, because it can not clearly respond to structural problems.

Different types of balance sheets are more meaningful for monitoring and controlling economic operation.

In the subdivision project, the sovereign debt situation is undoubtedly the first concern.

Sovereign assets in sovereign balance sheets refer to assets owned or controlled by the government, including other available resources; sovereign liabilities are direct liabilities of the government and contingent liabilities arising from implicit guarantees.

The report shows that in 2000~2014, China's sovereign assets increased from 35 trillion and 900 billion yuan to 227 trillion and 300 billion yuan, an increase of 191 trillion and 400 billion yuan, with an average annual growth of 13 trillion and 700 billion yuan.

Over the past 14 years, the assets of state-owned enterprises, especially the assets of non-state-owned enterprises and land and resources assets, have grown most rapidly.

Among them, the assets of state-owned enterprises increased by 126 trillion and 400 billion yuan, an average annual growth rate of 9 trillion yuan, and the contribution rate to the growth of sovereign assets was 66%.

In the same period, China's

Increased from 21 trillion and 400 billion yuan to 124 trillion yuan, an increase of 102 trillion and 600 billion yuan, an average annual growth of 7 trillion and 300 billion yuan.

Among them, the debt growth of state-owned enterprises increased by 55 trillion and 200 billion yuan, an average annual growth rate of 3 trillion and 900 billion yuan, and the local government debt grew by 26 trillion and 400 billion yuan, with an average annual growth of 1 trillion and 900 billion yuan.

The contribution rate of state-owned enterprises' debt and local government debt to sovereign debt growth is 53.8% and 25.7% respectively.

According to the report, China's sovereign asset net value is positive whether it is based on broad caliber or narrow gauge. This indicates that the Chinese government has enough sovereign assets to cover its sovereign debt.

Therefore, in a long period of time, China's sovereign debt crisis should be a small probability event.

In addition, on the basis of estimating the four levels of leverage of residents, non-financial enterprises, government and financial institutions, the report has gained the total leverage ratio of the whole society.

By the end of 2014, the scale of debt in China's entities (excluding financial institutions) was 138 trillion and 330 billion yuan, and the leverage rate of the entity sector was 217.3%.

At the end of 2014, the debt scale of the Chinese economy as a whole (including financial institutions) was 150 trillion and 30 billion yuan, and the social leverage ratio was 235.7%.

Net assets of local governments 78 trillion

In the government debt, the hidden danger of local debt is still the most concerned content.

By the end of 2014, the total assets of local governments were 108 trillion and 200 billion yuan, 30 trillion and 280 billion yuan in total liabilities and 77 trillion and 920 billion yuan in net assets.

Among them, the debt side accounted for a relatively large proportion of the two are loans and

Bank loans, city investment bonds and capital construction trust, which are related to local financing platforms, still occupy a large proportion.

Chang Xin, director of the national balance sheet Research Center, believes that local debt risk is generally controllable, and local governments basically do not have the solvency risk of insolvency.

"But at the same time, the risks we need to pay attention to are: the growth rate of local government debt is still high; the financing structure tends to be complicated; the liquidity risk of debt maturity payment can not be ignored; the regional and departmental risks should be paid attention to; the existing debt paying basis has certain unsustainability; and the risk exposure of contending debts is expanding."

Chang Xin said.

At the summer forum of the 2015 annual meeting of NetEase economists, Li Ruogu, former chairman of the China Import and export bank, said that the problem of local debt and shadow banking was overheated.

However, the total liabilities of China's government, including the government platform, are far lower than that of developed countries.

"From the operational mode, China's shadow banking and local platforms mainly use infrastructure and real economy, and do not use social welfare."

Li Ruogu said, in the long run, it should be beneficial to increase the growth of economic growth. The specific situation should be analyzed concretely. The local debt is indeed a problem and needs to be solved, but it should not be hyped.

In March and June of this year, the two batch of the financial sector was issued to local governments.

The stock debt amount is 1 trillion yuan each.

The replacement uses are: repayment of the principal debt payable in 2015, which is due to be repaid by the government as at June 30, 2013, with a total amount of 1 trillion and 860 billion yuan.

Premier Li Keqiang also strongly supported this practice. He clearly pointed out: "in China, the debt of local governments has not been directly distributed to welfare, and the investment mainly in infrastructure construction is rewarded.

Every debt we replace is issued by the central government. It can be said that behind the central government's credit and capability.

"Local debt replacement is of great benefit to solving the short-term local government's economic and financial burden. It is" hasty chapter "and also shows the strong financial resources of the state.

Li Wenhai said that debt replacement delayed the repayment pressure of local governments in the short term, and reduced the interest burden of local governments.

The term of local debt issued by replacement is generally 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. The interest rate of issuance is mostly the same as that of treasury bonds in the same period, far lower than that of banks and trust loans.