Cotton Price Rebound Potential Is Not Optimistic.

Although the situation of cotton is not optimistic, its positive factors also have two positive advantages: first, the US Department of agriculture's supply and demand report is positive. Recently, the US Department of agriculture cut production expectations and cotton prices soared. According to the US Department of agriculture's global production and demand forecast for August, global cotton in 2015/16 Stock A reduction of 653 thousand tons is mainly due to a decline in cotton production in the main producing countries. Among them, the output of US cotton has been reduced by 10% to 2 million 852 thousand tons, due to the reduction of the actual broadcasting area, the increase in the rate of abandoned cultivation and the decrease in yield per unit area.

　　 Cotton price Or 5%~15% rebound space, and the rebound window may be from the end of August to the middle of September, from September to the end of 10, the probability of concussion finishing is larger, in November, or hitting 13800~14000 yuan / ton price range, the possibility of entering the bottom shock will be greater in the middle and late 11.

China's cotton output has been cut by 218 thousand tons. India Down 109 thousand tons, Uzbekistan has also been reduced; two, the cotton market supply side pressure will be reduced, from the 13 cotton producing provinces in the main cotton producing county sampling survey shows that in 2015 the actual cotton planting area is expected to be 52 million 640 thousand mu, compared with 2014, 13 million 450 thousand Mu reduction, 20% reduction; the total output of cotton 5 million 500 thousand tons, a decrease of 14% over the same period. In terms of imports, according to the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2015, 105 thousand and 700 tons of cotton imported from China decreased by 56 thousand and 100 tons, or 34.67%. From September 2014 to July 2015, China imported 1 million 600 thousand and 900 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1 million 197 thousand and 700 tons compared with that of the previous year, a decrease of 42.80%.

In this week, other commodities have low innovation, cotton main contract trend is relatively stable, ready to go, looking for a breakthrough opportunity.

Liu Xintian, the core editor of China business development center and China Commodity Development Research Center, said in an interview with reporters that cotton will become the "pioneer" of the first big rebound in commodity decline. There are three reasons: first, the recent bad profits have been basically digested, while the good ones have not yet been worked out. The coming golden nine silver ten will stimulate the concentrated outbreak of cotton potential. Two, this year's El Nino phenomenon may be the strongest since records. The influence of climatic conditions will lead to the decline of cotton production and the increase of cotton demand. Three, from the price point of view, the domestic yarn and imported yarn begin to be competitive because of the long term bottom of cotton prices, and from the substitution point of view, the price of viscose begins to be higher than that of cotton, which also has a positive effect on cotton demand.