Cotton Prices In The New Year: Will The Trend Be Low?

In the year of 2015/16, autumn rain began to open.

In the harvest season, with the change of cotton planting pattern, there are few cotton planting provinces in China except Xinjiang.

All kinds of changes at the economic level make people dizzy and confused.

Oil collapse

Tragic, the real estate is in danger, the deflation forecast caused by the decline in the value of money, and so on, a storm, a cool thing, everything makes people feel uncertain about the economic prospect.

So far this year, the cotton factories in the package factories in Xinjiang are too cautious, and the number is lower than in previous years.

"The door is cold, the horse is thin", and the "waiting for the word boudoir" is the present.

Local cotton enterprises and the past mainland Xinjiang cotton enterprises face a true portrayal of the situation.

The changes in the economic level are very complicated. It is a relief for the economic circles not to take A shares as one thing.

Since the Shanghai composite index was launched at 2500 points, there is a foam Market with some "taste products".

Skyrocketing or plummeting, it is of no practical significance to take it as a vane for the actual level of China's economic development.

Besides, the RMB exchange rate.

The real cause of global economic panic is probably the depreciation of the renminbi.

This will create another hidden worry: the emerging economies are scrambling to imitate China's devaluation of the local currency, thus causing global deflation.

In fact, such worries are unnecessary.

Exchange rate decline, the biggest benefit should be export oriented industries.

Trade in commodities is active, and economic development still has solid support.

Since the reform in 2005, the RMB has been rising to the US dollar.

For many years, the measure of RMB appreciation is to get in the SDR and gain the status of market economy.

But China's sacrifice of part of the export trade's voluntary blood donation has not received even the sparse applause. Instead, it has been aggravated by some economies, and has been wildly plundering the market share that originally belonged to China.

In order to change these passive situations, we should restore the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar.

Trade and exchange rate fall are both reasonable and reasonable.

This move plus the two quarter of the quasi cut interest rate, the release of liquidity and the effect should be gradually revealed.

There are always striking similarities in history.

So that the global economic and financial circles spread such a view that it is called the financial crisis 7 years, namely the so-called "seven year curse."

Cotton,

The market also has a similar cycle.

In the 2008 financial crisis, the domestic and foreign economies, including the cotton textile market, were almost the same as what happened at the moment.

The difference is that this big economic environment has not formed a real crisis; for the cotton textile industry, the difference is that there was not so much reserve cotton in the Treasury at that time.

In the case of 2008, after the use of several means such as lowering interest rates and cutting interest rates, the liquidity of the market was greatly draining.

After the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies, the cumulative effect will be lagging behind, making the real market reaction of the real economy at least in the 1-2 quarter.

Today, the market has also put in place a heavy measure, namely, lowering the foreign exchange rate, showing the positive effects on the export oriented economic market.

Relying on the strong development of the real economy has made the national economy strong and solid. It is the basis for the great success of the "China model" since the reform and opening up.

China, which is at the initial stage of the financial economy, is still not mature enough compared with the world's financial powers.

A wave of "crisis" kept secret in the minds of the economic people has been quietly "spent".

The valley is surrounded by peaks, or Tailai.

The economic situation, including the cotton textile industry, is still an economic revival brought about by export processing trade in the near future.

Judging from the market outlook of cotton market, most of the people in charge of a well-known industry director said: "cotton prices in the new year will show a trend of low and high.

In the spring of 2016, the market price of new cotton will rise to the price target of 13700-14500 yuan / ton.

Is this really the case? Let's wait and see.