Mike Wu: Is Bear Market Going Down?

From the two big bull markets and two big bear cities, the bear market's capital line is usually in the bull market conversion area.

Optimistic estimate, at present, there are still more than 30% decline in the capital line, which means that a certain stock market will continue to fall, so that we can make the capital line complete more than 30% of the drop in space, and a number of high-quality stocks may have bottomed out ahead of time, this is an optimistic estimate.

Secondly, we see that there are some good things.

The bull bear cycle has already been completed, and has fallen to the level of 2000 points.

Bottom up is a process. It is suggested that we should study more potential stocks and operate less.

In the current stock market crash, the futures index has caused a great deal of controversy. Some people in the industry believe that the index is the main culprit of the current stock market crash.

In the evening of September 2nd, CICC announced the new rules for the futures market. What is the interpretation of the market participants? Where do we see the bottom of the stock market in the future?

The index has been in the mature stock market for many years.

China's 300 index futures officially went public in April 19, 2010, and it plummeted on the day of listing. In July 2, 2010, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 2319 points, and there was no significant rebound in the midway.

Insiders pointed out that some stock market funds were diverted from the futures index, and the effect of diverting funds in the weak market was more obvious, which made the funds tighter even when the market funds had dried up. In 2010, the 300 index refers to listing as a case. However, after 300 years of listing, it was found that the index could not change the market trend.

For 2013

Structural market, a very important reason is that the market bottomed out at the time, the second reason is that the stock capital game pattern under the market preference for small cap stocks, the third reason may be the set of insurance institutions in the 300 index above the empty list to suppress the rise of the 300 index.

There are also insiders pointed out that the management strictly stipulates that some institutions must hedge against the use of the index, making the institution the largest bear in the index market in the declining market, and at the same time, because there is no coupon on the spot to hedge the risk, those quantified hedging products can not make up the margin in the spot and do much more on the index to repair the large discount of the index, which makes the discount rate very exaggerated, resulting in the imbalance of power in the spot and the index, which exacerbates the market decline.

For the two fusion of long and short balance, the industry is the biggest bear. The trampling of the financing disk has led to the rapid collapse of the bull market bubble.

Unilateral financing for development, no development of securities lending, and imbalance of power in many places, in the declining market, financing can only cut meat and aggravate the trampling of the stock market.

Therefore, insiders suggested that the two fusion should be closed.

Another aspect is that the market is unfair, such as institutions can hedge risks through index futures, while small retail investors do not have this authority. Secondly, the futures and spot trading systems do not match, the index T+0, and spot T+1.

After the stock market is changed to T+0, it is beneficial to improve

Trample, because this improves the efficiency of the pfer of financing.

For the new rules of the CICC in September 2nd, some big V pointed out that this would allow the index to be closed, and some pointed out that the short selling would make the market fall further. It was also held that in September 18th, the futures index was about to be delivered, and the new rule was intended to avoid the repayment difficulties of the index futures.

According to the insiders, after the new rules, institutions will have difficulties in hedging their futures, which may result in a sell-off in the spot market.