Pi Haizhou'S Important Criteria For Measuring The Success Or Failure Of The Bailout Market

From June 15th to July 9th this year, the A share market went through an unprecedented stock market crash.

The Shanghai composite index plunged more than 1800 points in the 18 trading day, down by 34.85%.

The stock price of a large number of stocks has been cut off. Many small and medium-sized stock prices have been cut more than 60%, and investors' confidence has been severely damaged.

It is irresponsible to say that saving the market is not a rescue index.

For the rescue market, there is no rescue index to rescue the market is the failure to rescue the market.

If the management of China's stock market does not want to see the outcome of the bailout failure, it must save the index.

Otherwise, this is the incompetence of the management and the irresponsible performance of the stock market.

Of course, the rescue index does not exclude the phased fall of the index, but eventually the stock index returns to the upside, which is still a manifestation of the success of the rescue market, such as the US rescue in 2008.

It is against this background that the management with repeated hesitation finally extended a helping hand to the stock market.

The regulatory authorities began to stop the issue of new shares since July 4th, and since July 6th, the certificate company as a representative of the national team has officially entered the rescue market and opened the prelude to the A round market rescue.

This is the first time in the history of A share market that the national team has invested in real gold and silver to save the market.

The stock market's unilateral collapse has come to an end.

However, this round began in July 6th, led by the certification company.

After 30 trading days, it came to an end in August 14th.

After the stock market closed in August 14th, the spokesman of the securities and Futures Commission, Deng Ge, said that as the market gradually moved towards normal fluctuations, the market should play a more role in regulating itself.

In the next few years, the certification company will not withdraw, but generally will not enter the market.

This means that the card company, which had previously taken the lead in the bailout, will be "retired from the second tier" from now on.

However, the withdrawal of the company is obviously hard to say "to retire". After all, it is difficult to make a good impression from the effect of the Baishi company's bailout.

The only success of the current round of certification is to ease the liquidity crisis of the stock market.

But the effect of the bailout is difficult, and most obviously in the stock market index.

In July 6th, the starting point of the certification fund was the Shanghai Composite Index 3686.92, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.33 points in August 14th, with the index rising by only 8%.

Judging from the trend of the next trading week, as of August 21st, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3500 points and the closing index was only 3507.74 points.

For the unsuccessful rescue of the certification company, there are also many people in the industry to justify it.

This includes a lot of "official mouth", "red mouth" and the "mouth" who represent all kinds of interests. They believe that the rescue market is not a hero in terms of index rise or fall.

Making money.

In the eyes of these "lips", as long as the problem of liquidity in the stock market was eliminated, the rescue market was successful.

As for the index's rise and fall, it is not the category of card companies to save the market.

It should be said that liquidity is a very important issue for the bailout market.

Because only the index has risen, investors' confidence can be restored, and only the index has risen, bringing the money making effect to attract more off site funds.

On the contrary, even if the bailout market alleviates the liquidity crisis in the short term, the index still falls, and the market has no money effect. In this case, it is hard for investors to recover their confidence. Not to mention the entry of off the field funds, that is, the funds in the field will also drain and form a new liquidity crisis in the stock market.

In August 18th, the stock market reappeared in the situation of 1000 shares. This is the best proof.

Another fact is that, according to media reports, in the context of the release of liquidity in the certification company, from July 27th to August 19th, in the three weeks or so, the scale of public fund holdings reduced to 145 billion 856 million yuan.

Including the public funds, which are the backbone of the stock market, are choosing to reduce their positions or even run away from capital. Is this the result that the company can alleviate the liquidity problem? Therefore, if the index can not be raised, the confidence of investors can not be saved. Such a bailout can not be called a success.

In fact, in view of the world stock market, any country or region's stock market bailout is ultimately not a sign of success as an index rise.

For example, in 1998, the financial security war happened in Hongkong. In August 14th of that year, Hongkong government funds officially entered the rescue market, triggering a bull market in Hongkong market.

The index rose from a low of 6544.79 in August 13, 1998 to 18397.57 in March 28, 2000, and the Hang Seng Index rose 182% in about one year and seven months.

Another example is the US financial crisis in 2008.

The government also carried out the bailout.

Although the market failed to stop the decline of US stocks at the beginning of the bailout, it was out of a bull market after it bottomed out in March 2009.

Further, few countries and regional governments have failed to rescue the market, and this success is marked by an exponential rise.

Therefore, the so-called rescue market is not a rescue index, which is obviously untenable.

Such a claim is not enough to save the market from the surface, but in fact, it is a shake of investor confidence.

In the case that the bail company's bailout market does not save the index, how can investors have confidence in the stock market's future? This way, some people who have ulterior motives can not be excluded from taking advantage of the stock market and stock index futures to make money, and this does not exclude certain collusion between Chinese and foreign organizations to short the Chinese stock market.

Moreover, the bailout index is also irresponsible for the rescue coalition forces.

For example, at the beginning of this round of rescue, 21 brokerages jointly rescue the market, claiming that the Shanghai composite index is below 4500, and that the 21 brokerages only increase their holdings.

If the bailout market does not save the index, letting the stock index fall to 3000 points or even lower, is it not necessary to put the 21 brokerages in a tight position? Similarly, there are also those listed companies who are actively involved in maintaining stability. They are also shareholders or executives and are also employee stock ownership plans. If the bailout market really does not save the index, these allies will only get their share.

In this way, who will be desperate to save the market?