PTA Market Or Re Entering The Increase In Inventory Cycle

It is understood that in September, the average operating rate of domestic PTA plants was maintained at around 56%.

The market expects that by the end of September, PTA social inventory will consume 350 thousand tons to 1 million 600 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio will drop to 64%.

This is the main reason for the strong performance of the PTA futures market in the near future.

However, at present, there is no fundamental change in PTA overcapacity and fierce competition. The PTA plant is still cashflow oriented.

In August, the newly built 1 million 600 thousand ton PX plant in CICC started to operate. In early September, Hengli petrochemical and Yisheng Petrochemical two large installations were still overhauled. In addition to the maintenance plans of other PTA factories, the domestic PTA plant operation rate was low near 56% in recent years.

As a result, PX consumption has shrunk dramatically. By the end of September, PX's domestic inventories and inventories will rise to 1 million 570 thousand tons and 110% respectively.

Therefore, considering the limited space of crude oil prices and the squeezing profit brought by the loose supply and demand of PX, it is expected that the price of PX will be weak in the later stage.

On the one hand, by the end of August, international crude oil prices rebounded by more than 25% within 3 days. The driving factors were the market expected OPEC to take measures to reduce production and stabilize oil prices.

But in September 4th, Russian energy minister Novak announced no agreement with Venezuela to support international oil prices, while Saudi Arabia fully lowered the official selling price of light crude oil in Arabia in October.

This means that the possibility of a stable oil price agreement within OPEC has been greatly reduced.

On the other hand, the operating rate of the global refinery will decrease by 4% in the period from 9 to October. The crude oil consumption will be 90 million barrels per day in September and the crude oil consumption in October will fall to 80 million barrels / day based on the average crude oil processing volume of 90 million barrels per day.

In addition, Goldman Sachs, Moodie, IMF and other international investment banks and institutions have also reduced the growth of the global economy, the trend of demand for crude oil market demand is expected to gradually decrease.

From this, we can see that despite the sharp fluctuations in the international crude oil market from the end of August to the beginning of September, the international crude oil still faces substantial pressure of supply and demand, and it is hard to go up sharply.

The market predicts that the late US crude oil price will be between 40 and 50 US dollars per barrel, and the probability of Brent crude oil will be weak in 45 to 55 US dollars / barrel interval.

As cash flow rebounded to the cost of production at the PTA plant, the PTA plant of the pre parking inspection service is expected to restart from the end of September to the beginning of October. In addition, with the release of the newly released PTA capacity after October, it is expected that PTA will reenter the increase in inventory cycle by the end of this year.

As of September 18th, the polyester link inventory remained at a low level for about 14 days, and the cash flow fell by 200 yuan / ton to 80 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of September, and the polyester operating rate remained near 79.1%.

In short, constrained by the macro economic weakness and poor terminal demand, although the polyester production and operation indicators are all well performed, the start-up load of polyester plant is limited.

Overall, the PTA plant shut down maintenance makes PTA futures performance decline, but before November, crude oil prices still have downward pressure, and the pre maintenance PTA device has a driving expectation, so PTA futures is expected to launch a gradual adjustment of the market.