The Impact Of Consumption Off-Season On PTA Is Not Large.

With the reduction of load by PTA production enterprises, the start-up load of PTA industry in October is expected to be further low.

In the context of tight supply, PTA is hard to fall again.

Under normal circumstances, October is winter clothing production, downstream.

The stocking of PTA is basically over, and PTA begins to enter the low consumption season.

However, due to the domestic economic pformation, the performance of external demand and domestic demand is weaker than in previous years.

Therefore, downstream demand is in a weak position.

Theoretically, lower PTA prices will boost demand, but demand is unlikely to increase significantly, driven by terminal demand bottlenecks and PTA price declines.

In reality, as the price of PTA continues to fall, enterprises are pessimistic towards the latter stage, and the inventory basically meets the needs of rigid demand, and there will not be a lot of stocking.

This means that the low consumption season has little impact on PTA.

At present, the consumption of crude oil is low.

It is difficult for crude oil to break through the 60 day moving average.

But after the fall from 7 to August, crude oil prices have responded more fully to recent negative factors.

In addition, considering that the US dollar's stagflation and the continuous decline in crude oil commercial inventories, crude oil may stabilize at $45 / barrel in the near future, which determines that PTA does not have the conditions to fall.

Secondly, under the background of excess capacity in the chemical fiber industry, due to the environmental pollution problem, the domestic PX productivity growth has lagged behind the growth rate of PTA capacity. This leads to a very high degree of import dependence of PX. Foreign PX enterprises are relatively active in pricing, and the chemical fiber industry depends more on PX's "face".

From the current operation of the PX plant, the PX load of South Korea's GS in Lishui and the PX load of Ulsan aromatics in South Korea have dropped to about 80%, while the Japanese new Japan's PX device is scheduled to stop in mid November.

In addition, 870 thousand tons of Sinopec.

The device also stopped in the near future due to the impact of flash explosion.

Taking into account the tight supply of late PX, the price of PX is expected to rebound steadily, which determines that PTA prices will rise and fall.

Finally, Yisheng Petrochemical's 5 million 500 thousand ton capacity in Ningbo has been partially stopped, while Dalian's 5 million 200 thousand ton capacity and Hainan's 2 million 200 thousand tons all plan to stop in October. The two is Hengli petrochemical, which will reduce the load in October, and the about 6000000 ton capacity of Xiang Lu petrochemical company has already been shut down on the whole line. The three small and medium sized PTA production enterprises such as Yangzi Petrochemical, Jiangyin Hwang Bang chemical, Tianjin petrochemical and Luoyang Petrochemical have parking plans in October.

In short, taking into account the possibility of crude oil stabilization, while the supply of PX and PTA will drop, the support role of cost support for PTA is beginning to appear, so PTA does not have the conditions to fall sharply.

Through the above discussion, the author believes that although PTA technology tends to be weak, but with regard to the stabilization of crude oil prices and the reduction of PX and PTA load, PTA does not have the conditions to fall sharply.

In addition, in the off-season, PTA consumption is generally in a weak state, and demand will not decrease significantly.

Therefore, PTA prices are showing signs of stabilization in the short term. We should guard against PTA's "diving".