PTA Supply And Demand Side No Change Crude Oil Rebound Is Highly Limited During The Year

In 2015, 4 new PTA installations were planned to go into operation, with a total capacity of nearly 7 million tons. If the production capacity of long-term parking facilities is not considered, the total capacity of PTA will reach 50 million 270 thousand tons / year by the end of 2015.

According to the production of 1 tons of polyester PET requires 0.85 to 0.86 tons of PTA calculation, 50 million 270 thousand tons of PTA enough to produce 59 million 140 thousand tons of polyester.

It can be seen that the capacity of PTA is far beyond the capacity demand of 50 million tons of downstream polyester (the expected capacity in the end of 2015).

In the excess capacity cycle, PTA plant operating rate continued low.

Data show that as of October 12th, the PTA factory's latest operating rate was only 56%, and the average operating rate since the beginning of this year is 67%, which is 2 percentage points lower than the 2014 average.

In addition, current PTA operating rate is lower than downstream.

76%, as well as the operating rate of 72% of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, under this background, the pressure of PTA inventory is not large at present.

Data show that the current number of PTA stocks in China is 2 days, lower than the stock average of 4 days from the beginning of this year, and the futures warehouse receipt inventory also exceeds half of the peak value of 880 thousand tons in the year.

The device reboot time is basically in the middle of 10 months, which means that the repair phase of the PTA will disappear.

From the spot price point of view, at the end of September, the PTA price of the China textile net was quoted at 4440 yuan / ton, and the spot price of PTA rose to 4680 yuan / ton in October 12th, up 240 yuan / ton, or 5.41%.

In the same period,

Futures rose from 4526 yuan / ton to 4810/ tons, up 284 yuan / ton, or 6.27%.

PTA spot price has changed from 62 yuan / ton to 130 yuan / ton for premium price.

Crude oil rebound is one of the main reasons for the rise of PTA.

Although PTA rose only half of the crude oil price rise, the two fell low and rebounded high.

At the same time, data show that the correlation coefficient between the beginning and the present is 0.82, and there is a strong positive correlation.

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The oversupply of crude oil is still a sharp sword hanging over oil prices.

Although the EIA report showed that crude oil production in the United States dropped to 9 million barrels per day in September, the total inventory volume in EIA9 months was 7 million 300 thousand barrels higher than that in the quarterly average. More importantly, in September, OPEC crude oil output remained at a historical high of 31 million 720 thousand barrels per day.

The International Energy Agency said that the global crude oil supply remained stable at 96 million 600 thousand barrels per day in September, and the oil output in non OPEC countries was offset by the increase in OPEC countries' output.

It can be seen that the abundant supply of crude oil has not changed, which will directly restrict the height of crude oil rebound.

Of course, there are also some potential positive factors in the crude oil market. First, the US dollar rate hike is expected to decrease, and the US dollar index has dropped markedly. The two is geopolitical factors, the conflict between Russia and the Middle East countries or the fear of market supply.

What's more, what we need to mention is that oil companies are beginning to actively hedge against the sharp rebound in oil prices in recent years, pushing the US weekly crude oil volume delivered in December 2016 to a new high.

Crude oil producers will continue to produce large quantities of profits if they have a guaranteed profit after hedging, which will restrict the rebound of oil prices.