Short Term Impact Of TPP Implementation On China'S Textile And Garment Exports

TPP Member States currently include the United States, Japan, Canada, Chile, Mexico, Peru, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Brunei.

Among them, China has signed FTA agreements: Australia, New Zealand, Peru, Chile, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei.

Most of the tariff on textiles and clothing in China and those countries have been reduced to zero tariff, and a few have been gradually reduced to zero tariff (see Appendix).

Therefore, in terms of tariff treatment, TPP is mainly a barrier to China's textile and clothing exports by the United States, Japan, Canada and Mexico.

In 2014, China exported textiles and clothing to TPP12 countries for 114 billion 371 million dollars, of which 37 billion 764 million were textiles and 76 billion 610 million were garments.

They account for 37.26% of China's textile and clothing exports, 31.70% of textile exports and 40.79% of clothing exports.

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Among the Member States, the United States, Japan, Canada and Mexico have not yet established FTA agreements with China. In 2014, China's total exports of textiles and clothing to 4 countries amounted to US $80 billion 268 million, accounting for 26.15% of the total export volume of textiles and clothing in the same period.

As TPP and WTO are parallel, under the WTO rules, the developed countries such as the United States and Japan now import tariffs on China's textiles and clothing about 10%.

That is to say, once the internal tariff of TPP is implemented, China's textile industry will still export according to the WTO rules, which will be about 10% higher than the internal trade of TPP.

TPP Member States and China

Similarly, Mexico and Vietnam have similar competitiveness.

Since Mexico has signed a free trade agreement with the United States, Japan and Canada, Mexico now has 80% of its exports in the TPP area. After the implementation of TPP, there is little room for release. Vietnam has also signed a FTA with ASEAN, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Chile, but its exports to the United States and Canada are expected to achieve rapid growth through zero tariff.

According to statistics, Vietnam's textile and apparel exports to the world amounted to US $20 billion 950 million in 2014, of which US $9 billion 820 million exports to the US and US $493 million to Canada.

They are China's exports of textiles and clothing, 6.83%, 20.87% and 11.34% of exports to the United States and Canada respectively.

To investigate the impact of Vietnam's exports to the US and Canada on China's exports after the implementation of the TPP tariff, first look at the situation of Japan and Vietnam signing the FTA and implementing zero tariff.

Japan and Vietnam signed a free trade agreement at the end of 2008, which was formally implemented in July 2009, and gradually implemented Vietnamese textile and clothing imports.

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From 2011 onwards, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports to Japan began to grow significantly.

In 2014, the amount reached 340 billion 100 million yen, an increase of 1.98 times compared with 2009.

The stimulative effect of zero tariff is obvious.

At present, Japan has imposed about 10% tariffs on textiles and clothing imported from China. Under the background of 10% tariff differences, Vietnam exported about about 3000000000 of its textile and apparel products to Japan in 2014, which is 12% of the total volume of textile and clothing exported to Japan in the same period (25 billion 600 million US dollars).

This is mainly determined by the comprehensive competitiveness of the textile industry in China and Vietnam, such as capacity, product mix and grades.

Similarly, the zero tariff in the future will stimulate the rapid growth of Vietnam's exports to the United States and Canada. However, compared to the comprehensive competitiveness of China's textile industry, it can only have a certain substitution effect on China's similar products in the low-end clothing products. TPP

According to media reports, Fan Chunhong, vice chairman of the Vietnam textile and Garment Association, said Vietnam's textile and garment industry will grow by more than 20% after the TPP tax rate is effective.

Assuming that Vietnam's textile and garment exports doubled in the next 3 to 5 years, it will account for 13.65% of China's total textile and clothing exports in 2014, and the overall impact on China's textile industry is not significant.

According to the principle of origin of TPP, "starting from yarn" must be produced in TPP area.

At present, Vietnam's advantages are mainly in the manufacturing links of the industrial chain, the overall industry supporting ability is very poor, and most of the surface accessories need to be imported from China.

In 2014, Vietnam imported textiles and clothing from China to US $15 billion 834 million, of which $9 billion 478 million was imported from textiles.

Therefore, in the short term, the rule of origin of TPP is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it will restrain our export to Vietnam. On the other hand, it also inhibits the replacement of Vietnamese clothing capacity in the US and Canada market.

The United States and Mexico in the TPP member states are major producers of textile materials and fabrics. The purpose of their rules of origin is to help Vietnam reduce the import of clothing and accessories from China, thereby increasing imports from similar products in the United States and Mexico.

According to statistics, in 2014, Mexico's textile and clothing exports totaled 7 billion 167 million US dollars (no export data to Vietnam); US textile and clothing exports amounted to US $24 billion 419 million, of which only 101 million US dollars were exported to Vietnam, while China exported only 9 billion 478 million US dollars to Vietnam.