The Pformation Of Emerging Markets Is Very Beneficial To World Trade.

The OECD said that changes in China and other emerging markets have led to a sharp slowdown in World Trade and may drag the global economic recovery.

The group, which is headquartered in Paris and mainly in developed economies, has lowered its forecast of economic growth. It is expected that the world economy will expand 2.9% this year and expand by 3.3% in 2016.

In contrast, the previous forecasts were 3% and 3.6%, respectively.

OECD has made such a reduction in its annual Economic Outlook.

Just a few weeks ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the world economy would grow at its slowest pace since the crisis.

The euro zone is expected to grow by 1.5% this year, up 1.8% in 2016, slightly below the September forecast.

Germany's forecast has been slightly downgraded, while Italy's forecast has been slightly raised.

The US economy is expected to expand by 2.5% in 2016, slightly below the September forecast of 2.6% growth.

The OECD warned that the normalization of monetary policy should be "prudent".

Since the summer, worries about China's economic situation have affected the market trend, prompting the Bank of England to postpone the long-awaited increase in interest rates.

The Federal Reserve also postponed the first rate hike since the outbreak of the crisis, but is expected to raise interest rates next month.

"The prospect of global economic growth is clouded this year," the OECD said.

The group added that many countries may need to reassess monetary and fiscal policies because there are growing indications that potential growth will not be as strong as expected.

In particular, the OECD stressed the "significant slowdown in Global trade growth". This year, Global trade growth is expected to be only 2%, compared with 3.4% in 2014, and the growth rate in the first ten years of this year is much higher.

Generally speaking, the growth rate of trade will be so low only if economic growth is disappointing.

"World trade has always been a weathervane of global output," said Catherine Mann, chief economist of OECD.

"The global trade growth observed so far in 2015 is in the past and in the world.

It's related. "

The OECD said

And the low outlook for output reflects to a large extent that emerging markets are still weak.

In particular, China is committed to changing the growth pattern, shifting from the growth pattern based on investment expenditure to the focus of consumption, which leads to a sharp decline in commodity prices and may reduce China's role in world trade.

It points out that from 2014 to 2015, about 1/3 of the slowdown in import growth of non OECD countries was caused by the decline in China's imports, which inhibited overseas demand for other Asian economies.

But OECD still expects China's economy to grow by 6.8% in 2015, 0.1 percentage points higher than two months ago.

China's economic growth will then slow down to 6.5% in 2016, the same as previous forecasts.