Polyester Price Is Expected To Have Inflection Point

Since the beginning of November, the international crude oil futures have launched a new round of decline. The focus has shifted down the cost of chemical products, and plastics, PP and methanol have been hit hard and prices have been falling. PTA is unique and its resilience is obvious.

Although the downstream demand is weak, the raw material PX market has not been able to effectively boost prices, but the low inventory and low load in the PTA industry has provided certain support for the market.

Late downstream polyester enterprises or start the end of the stock market, PTA center of gravity or slightly improved.

Although the PTA industry chain is still weak, but in view of the long-term parking devices, the pressure of PTA supply has eased, and the commissioning of new devices will be delayed. The tight spot in the industry has become a major support for the market. At the same time, the stocking of polyester at the end of the year is still worth looking forward to.

In the post market situation, there is no room for significant price loss, and there is still limited room for further price declines.

At the beginning of the year, the Far East petrochemical company went bankrupt. After the Tenglong aromatics explosion occurred in early April, the PTA device of the Xiang Lu petrochemical company was jointly and severally affected. The installation of the company has been in a state of shutdown for half a year.

In the near future, the 6 million 150 thousand ton PTA capacity of Xiang Lu is facing restructuring. It is impossible for us to restart in a short time.

In addition, several small idle PTA production capacity in the industry has been removed.

The effective available capacity is only about 33 million tons, accounting for 75% of the total capacity, so that the average 65% operating rate in the current industry means that the current start-up capacity accounts for more than 86% of the actual capacity.

It is understood that Jiangyin Hon Bang petrochemical and Sichuan Shengda Petrochemical total 3 million 200 thousand tons / year PTA new capacity, the earliest in the two quarter of 2016 will be put into operation.

Before the end of this year, the overcapacity of the PTA industry has been alleviated step by step, and the large-scale expansion of the latter industry is drawing to a close.

At present, the load is still at a high level.

A sharp fall will result in more companies cutting production to support prices.

Thanks to the PTA spot market.

PTA manufacturers are generally profitable since late October because of the low load of manufacturers and the calculation of 800 yuan / ton processing fee in the industry.

Under good production conditions, the spot price in East China has been hovering around 4720 yuan / ton in nearly a month, and the futures discount rate has reached a new high in the year.

In contrast, downstream polyester enterprises are rather bleak.

After "golden nine silver ten", polyester demand weakened, the main polyester products prices were at a historical low, the average production and marketing was only 75%, and the average production loss was around 200 yuan / ton.

However, from the perspective of traditional demand, near the end of the year, the climax of winter clothing sales is coming.

Especially in the PTA manufacturer's price intention, downstream or replenishment, polyester polyester prices are expected to come to an end.