Vip.Com'S Earnings Are Not In Doubt.

For three and a half years, vip.com has been enjoying the eyes of the US capital market through its high gloss performance.

However, China's stock market has returned to A shares this year, but has become vip.com's "crossing robbery" year by accident.

Like many predecessors of the Chinese stock market, in May this year, vip.com ushered in the "rite of passage" organized by the US shorting agency.

In early May, MFR, a short research company, published a research report titled "vip.com: we didn't buy the money you sent," and the research paper used the revenue recognition method to question the existence of vip.com's financial data.

Facing the challenge, vip.com responded very sensitively, and immediately produced the financial statements.

However, in May 29th, MFR released the information again, and raised a new question, that is, whether vip.com should adopt the net method or the full amount method to calculate the revenue recognition.

In MFR's view, different calculation methods will directly affect the valuation of stocks. Under the full scale calculation, vip.com's revenue in 2014 will be close to US $3 billion 800 million, while under the net method, vip.com's revenue will be less than US $1 billion.

However, vip.com's troubles are not over.

As of June 21st, more than five lawyers have initiated class action lawsuits against vip.com, and these five law firms are almost frequent customers who initiated securities class action in the short selling stocks, such as Milberg LLP of the US law firm, Law Offices of Howard G. Smith of the United States of America, and so on in June 21st.

The five law firms have almost one common point, that is, whether vip.com should confirm the income in accordance with the full or net method. The root of the problem is almost uniformly derived from the short report of MFR in May 29th.

According to the data released, as of the end of the two quarter of this year, the apparel industry finished product capital was 90 billion 450 million yuan, an increase of 4.5% over the previous year, down 2 percentage points from the previous quarter, and maintained a downward trend for the 3 consecutive quarter, and the inventory growth rate for 2 consecutive quarters was lower than the main business revenue growth.

The whole industry's inventory growth rate has been declining, and the days of vip.com can be imagined.

Speaking of vip.com

The most direct suspect must be the three quarterly report.

In November 13th, vip.com issued an early warning of its performance. It is estimated that the third quarter revenue will be between 8 billion 600 million and 8 billion 700 million yuan, an increase of 62% in the middle value.

Vip.com's previous expectations were between 9 billion 100 million and 9 billion 300 million yuan.

What is more representative is that vip.com's first round of performance decline has broken its record of 14 quarter revenue growth.

As soon as the data came out, vip.com's share price fell.

On that day, vip.com's stock price closed at $13.60, or 26.96%.

You know, only 7 trading days ago, vip.com's disk opened a high price of $22.31.

In November 16th, vip.com's share price continued to decline, closing at 12.50 US dollars, or 8.09%, and making a preliminary low price of $12.02.

In other words, in just 9 trading days, from the highest to the lowest price, vip.com's market value evaporated about $5 billion 780 million (about 37 billion).

In November 19th, vip.com officially released the three quarter results announcement: revenue of $1 billion 363 million, an increase of 54% over the same period last year, continuing the downward trend of year-on-year growth.

The official explanation of vip.com is that because of the relatively high temperature in autumn this year, sales of seasonal garments are down.

Observer Lu Zhenwang believes that vip.com's argument is reasonable.

"Since the autumn of this year, the warm winter weather in the South has really made vip.com's performance worse. Unlike the Jingdong audience, vip.com's main consumers are concentrated in the south."

Who killed flash buying myth?

However, vip.com's claim has been attacked by peers.

As soon as the 10th decade is over, the major e-commerce platforms have announced their achievements. Ali and Jingdong have refreshed their historical records in the field of clothing.

Although the three quarterly report data is not very ideal, but Jingdong mall CEO Shen Haoyu said that sales of clothing category were not affected by the weather.

So what killed?

Once created flash buying myth?

As we all know, vip.com's flash buying mode is a sharp weapon to inventory, and this is the mode that vip.com has been invincible in the past two years.

The high inventory of garment industry provides support for vip.com's performance explosion objectively.

Cao Lei, director of the China Electronic Commerce Research Center, once said that in the past 2012-2013 years, the domestic garment industry has been seriously overloaded. Both domestic brands and popular brands in China have seen a large number of clearance due to the high inventory.