Lang Xianping'S Investment In "Normalization Of Real Estate"

Recently, it is reported that the real estate tax in the future will be merged by the existing property tax and the urban land use tax, and will be collected and collected by the local tax system. All the income will belong to the local area and become an important supplement to the local tax source.

Will the merger of real estate tax lead the future development of real estate? With the end of the era of violence, is it necessary to invest in "normalization of real estate"? I am going to have a detailed analysis of the future development of real estate in the latest Lang Xianping, "where is your investment opportunity?"

The reason is very simple.

I want to ask all female friends, you go shopping to buy clothes.

When did the price fall? We must know that the overcapacity of the garment industry is much more serious. According to the latest data of the textile network, the output of clothing in China in 2014 years is 29 billion 900 million, and the real consumption is only 9 billion.

In addition to exports, every year, 20% of the garments are kept in stock. If the production is stopped, the total stock will be sufficient for five years. The excess capacity will be several hundred, while the real estate overcapacity will be 23%.

Why don't the price of clothes fall? As long as you are willing to spend money on clothes, it will meet the requirements of good quality, good brand, fashion and so on, otherwise you will not buy it.

And clothes like this must conform to the principles of economics. As long as prices fall, demand will surely skyrocket.

The same is true for real estate.

The real estate industry has entered normal development since the beginning of 2014 years.

As long as the normalization of real estate, it will be consistent with the laws of economics. When prices rise, demand will fall and demand will rise when prices fall.

What is the normalization of real estate? Take housing as an example, first, whether it has local characteristics, such as close to the city center, railway station, temporary lake and so on; second, is it a school district room; third, is it a subway room; fourth, is it just needed housing?

The more the four conditions are satisfied, the more normalized they become, and the more normalization is, the more consistent with the laws of economics.

Very real estate, such as "ghost city", no school, no subway, nor just needed housing, just like the clothes in stock, no one wants.

We have counted the average inventory of real estate in major cities of the country and the growth rate of development and investment. We found a rule that the real estate market gradually returned to reason and the house returned to its original attribute.

Please look at the picture below.

If the inventory of 2014 year January was 1, then by January 2015, the inventory would be 1.38, that is, the inventory increased by 38%, and the inventory backlog was relatively serious.

Because of high inventory, real estate development investment growth slowed from 1 in 2014 to 20% in 2015, and 6% in 2015.

Here we can see that when the stock increase, investment began to slow down, the property market gradually returned to the common sense of economics.

As a result of widespread price reduction, by 5 months in 2015, the stock had dropped to 1.32, indicating that the price was reduced.

It works.

At the same time, we see that even if the policy is relaxed, the lever of buying houses has been very high, but the price of houses has not risen sharply.

2015 in March 30th, the central bank issued the notice on the issues related to the policy of individual housing loans, which stipulates that the down payment ratio of the first suite of the provident fund loans needs only 20%; the purchase of two suites, the down payment ratio of the first suite loan has been settled 30%, and the unpaid down payment ratio is 40%.

Compared to the previous two suites 60% of the down payment, has been greatly reduced, but the price of housing in all parts of the country did not appear before that skyrocketing, the property market gradually returned to reason.

According to our judgement, it is difficult to get a price rise after the 2008 year old house price rise.

The new urban population is slowing sharply.

In 2010, the number of new urban migrant workers was 8 million 20 thousand, reduced to 4 million 730 thousand in 2012, and only 211 in 2014, equivalent to 1/4 in 2010.

Serious shortage.

Of course, the first tier cities in the north, the upper, the deep and the deep are still very attractive, and the labor shortage is mainly three cities.

The latest research report of Founder Securities also shows that after 2015 years, China's 20~64 year old labor force began to grow negatively, and the rate of decline would exceed Japan's.

Next I take Shenzhen and Shanghai's property market as an example to make specific instructions.

2015 in May 18th, the National Bureau of statistics released 70 residential sales price changes in large and medium cities. The new residential prices in Shenzhen increased by 0.7% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 1.8%.

Regardless of the link or year-on-year, Shenzhen's property market is at the top of the national market.

"Today morning post" reported on 6 December 2015, 2, "the Shenzhen property market is booming, and the real estate registration center is hard to find."

A financial network reported on June 4th, "Shenzhen property market to the north, the upper and the broad throw a street."

When we read these news headlines, we will assume that the 2008 year old property market boom started again.

But through analysis, you will find that this is not the whole skyrocketing we imagined. Only a few areas are rising, most of them are not increasing much. The overall 5 month month housing price is up 1.67%, and the second-hand housing price has dropped by 10.71%.

First of all, we will analyze the growth of Shenzhen's various regions, and the four sections of Longhua new area, Baoan District, Nanshan District and Dapeng district have led to the rise of Shenzhen property market.

Other places are flat and there are regional drops, such as Guangming New District.

Among them, the largest ROC area, the 2015 year of the 1 month, the Shenzhen municipal Party committee adopted the general plan (2014 to 2020) of the ecological civilization system reform in Dapeng New District and five special reform programs, which stimulated the housing price rise in this area.

The price increase in Nanshan District is due to the listing of Qianhai Shekou free trade zone.

The reason for the rise of Longhua new area and Baoan District is more direct. The port of Guangzhou Shenzhen Hong Kong high speed rail will be designed here, and the 30 minutes will reach Hongkong West Kowloon.

From the specific analysis, it can be seen that as long as I meet the four conditions of normalization of real estate, the area will rise faster, and the areas that do not conform to the bright new area will fall.

Look at Shanghai again.

Our research found that the price increase mainly concentrated in the subway and the area to be opened to the subway, which is in line with the third conditions, the concept of the MTR room.

The construction of the metro line 14 was launched at the end of 2014, so the housing prices along the way are rising, and the area with higher gains is the future pfer center station of the subway.

For example, the new town of Jiading, Jiading District, increased by 2.47% in May than in the 4 month, 4.99% in Changning District Wuning Road, 2.86% in Jingan District Cao Jia Du, 3.06% in Dong Jia Du in Huangpu District, 3.95% in Huangpu District Yu Garden, all because of the 14 14 subway line.

There is also the Chongming District, because before the traffic is inconvenient, the second-hand housing price is less than 8000 yuan per square meter, in October 29, 2014, after the subway 19, 20, 21 21 line plan has been promulgated, the three islands will be connected to the subway, so the house price has begun to rise.

Jinshan District's housing prices also began to rise from the end of 2014. The reason is that in December 2014, 15 days and a day, the urban design scheme of Jinshan coastal area began to be collected from the whole world, and the petrochemical pollution should be pformed into a beautiful coastal city.

Therefore, I suggest that you can purchase normal estate according to the four conditions I mentioned.

There will be no huge profits in the future. In the long run, the price increase should be about the same as inflation. It is probably one percentage point higher than inflation. The United States has been doing this for the past one hundred years.

So if you want to keep a conservative investment, buy the property of normalization and keep it under a long term.