More Than 100 Thousand Volume Shopping Center Investment Difficulty

At present, there are more than 80 thousand cities in the first tier cities, and more than 100 thousand of the investors should choose carefully. But on the other hand, commercial real estate (shopping center) has slowed down, reduced volume and increased investment pressure. It is estimated that the number of new shopping centers will be reduced by at least 20 this year compared with the beginning of the year. More than 100 thousand of the projects have been carefully chosen by investors. At present, most of the first tier cities are around 80 thousand square meters.

According to Liu Zhifeng, President of the real estate association of China, commercial real estate investment has declined since last year. But according to the economic data of the first half of this year, consumption has surpassed investment for the first time in the traditional business and the two major consumption formats of the Internet economy, and has become the first driving force for economic growth. In the first half of this year, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth reached 60%, which was 5.7 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

But it can not be overlooked that commercial real estate growth is slowing down. Ouyang Jie, vice president of Xincheng holding group, has been studying this problem for the past one or two years. "Taking Shanghai as an example, the shopping center in Shanghai now has an average per capita building area of 0 .1 square meters per year and an increase of 1 square meters in 10 years, and in the past Shanghai has opened 160 shopping centers. According to a shopping mall covering 200 thousand people with static population, it can cover 32 million people, while Shanghai has only 24 million people, so Shanghai's shopping center has been overloaded."

According to Ouyang Jie, this year's project has entered 21 large and medium-sized cities, of which more than 10 are provincial capitals, but he believes that the future three or four tier cities will be the opportunities for commercial real estate. According to statistics, the three or four tier cities now account for 53% of the total urban population of the country, but the shopping centers in the three or four tier cities only occupy the national cities. Shopping Mall The 16 .5%, so it faces great opportunities.

"From my point of view, I think it is the winter of commercial real estate now. This is the beginning of winter." Liu Jia, general manager of cloud Plaza, Cade Plaza, Guangzhou, said: "we have more than 50 projects under operation, no matter passenger flow, sales or lease renewal expires. But in the past year, there have also been some major challenges, and some data have slipped. " He said that if the shopping center is more than 100 thousand square meters of volume, its investment business challenges will increase. Based on this, enterprises will be more cautious when investing in a shopping center. "When we make shopping centers in the first tier cities, we choose 80 thousand to 100 thousand volumes. I think this is representative. Commercial real estate The beginning of contraction. "

"We also studied that the average population of a three line city is 50 9, and that of a four line population is 4 million 110 thousand. According to the coverage rate of 200 thousand of the population of a shopping center, the urbanization rate is 50% (50% of the people live in three or four line cities, and the remaining 50% live in counties, towns or rural areas), so that they can accommodate more than 1600 shopping centers. He said that if the number of shopping centers covered by 12 .9 people was calculated according to the American Standard, the volume of shopping centers could also rise to 270 0. "So Shopping Mall The opportunity for the future is in 10 years. After the 10 years, the three or four line cities will have no chance.

But he also reminds us that there are risks and pitfalls in commercial real estate in the three or four tier cities, especially in the "new city business district". He believes that it is hard for the new city business to have spring again: "the government has built a large number of industrial parks and a large number of new urban areas, but the introduction of urban population has completely slowed down." He said that at present, China has entered the post industrial era. Even thousands of large factories in a city are rare, let alone "big factories". Under such circumstances, the new urban area is sparsely populated. It is not only difficult for shopping centers and street shops to survive.

In fact, there are lots of vacant projects in industrial parks and industrial parks. According to the good rental C E O Qu Xian Yang introduced, take Beijing as an example, the commercial real estate vacancy rate is 4%, this is still a reasonable level. However, if the new forms of Industrial Park, industrial park and factory spanformation are included, the vacancy rate in Beijing will exceed 10%.. "Going to stock" may be a problem to be solved in most cities in the next three years.