How Is The Supply And Demand Of Cotton In India?

In 2015, the export of cotton in India has been restored. As a result of the increase in imports from Pakistan in some areas, the imports of Bangladesh and Burma in other pure import countries also increased. By the end of 11, the registered export volume of India cotton was 540 thousand tons, an increase of 44% over the same period last year.

In 2015, India continued to carry out the minimum cotton protection price. The new year's storage price of India CCI was 63-65 cents, which was directly converted into India's domestic 8800-9100 RMB (1 yuan =6.34 yuan) at the exchange rate.

Slightly higher than last year, but due to the depreciation of the rupee, the actual purchase price declined 2014 years ago, and the farmers' income was low, and the enthusiasm for planting in the new year was still not high.

On the other hand, the depreciation of the rupee in India has led to a relatively smooth export of its textile products. This year, its export of cotton yarn is strong, especially for China's cotton yarn exports. However, with the decline of cotton prices in China, the advantage of imported cotton yarn may be reduced. In 2016, India's cotton yarn exports should not be overly optimistic.

Overall, India cotton is expected to further inventory in the 2016 year, but demand kinetic energy is not overly expected.

Since 2011, the sowing area of cotton in India has not increased further, relatively stable, the output has fluctuated with the yield per unit area, maintained at 620-650 million tons overall, and the output in 2015 dropped to 620 tons.

In recent years, domestic demand in India has basically maintained a steady growth of around 7%. On the one hand, the development of domestic cotton spinning is also due to the increase in China's cotton yarn imports in recent years. However, in 2015, it slowed down to 3%.

Increasing the cost of cotton spinning restricts demand.

The demand for cotton exports in India also declined 2013 years later, mainly due to the implementation of the India government's purchase and storage, raising its domestic cotton prices, and its main export country China began to control import share.

With stable output and severe challenges facing demand, India's cotton stocks have accumulated, and 2014 year old stocks have reached a high level this year.

By comparing the relationship between the US cotton price and the global cotton consumption and consumption ratio, we find that the global stock consumption is more important than the peak price. The general price decline starts when the stock consumption ratio rises to a certain extent, and when the price declines will drop to a certain extent when the inventory consumption ratio drops to a certain level, the stock consumption is hard to stop effectively than the first year of the decline.

Look at the relationship between the US cotton inventory consumption ratio and the futures price.

The inventory consumption ratio is more closely related to the US cotton price trend. When the inventory consumption rises from the low level, it shows that the supply and demand change to loose, often accompanied by the fall in prices. When the stock consumption ratio rises to a certain height, the price starts to pick up and fall, and we can see that the price change is lagging behind the inventory consumption ratio. The stock consumption is higher than the first year of the high falling price, but the price is not rising, but it continues to run weak.

The party is on the rise.

So we can see that the global consumption of cotton supply and demand has dropped from high to high inventory in the 2015 year, but the stock price is still relatively high and the price has not stopped yet.

Zheng cotton and the United States cotton stage differentiation, but in the long run, the general trend is the same, which has reference significance for the trend of Zheng cotton.