What Are The Investment Opportunities And Ideas Of The Textile And Garment Industry Next Year?

2015 is coming to an end. From the beginning of the year to now, the textile and garment sector has gained top growth. It has won nearly 70 percentage points in the market, and the reasons for the rise in textile and garment sector ranking. Has the demand side been improved? What are the investment opportunities and ideas for next year? There are two main reasons for the rise of the textile and garment sector this year. The first is related to the whole macro-economic background, and the competition for brand resources brought by the diversification of the channel expansion; the second is the whole.

There are some structural changes in the middle of the plate; the third is the downward trend of the main sector, but the cash flow is good, and the market value is small.

We are concerned about some changes in population structure. There are three ideas for reference: 1) the demand for health, tourism, sports and fitness brought about by aging; 2) the economic needs brought by the increase of women's income; 3) the development of fan economy and brand electric business brought about by the increase of average consumption tendency after 90 years.

We are very optimistic about the sports industry. We think that sports consumer goods are rising again in China. In 2008, they were at the top of the sales volume, and the recovery is still hoping for a new high.

Her economy, including

Accessories, women's wear, jewelry, cosmetics, cosmetic surgery, children's consumption, etc., are all more likely to achieve better market performance.

We also need to see opportunities for business pformation, on the one hand, slow turnover, high price conversion to fast turnaround and low price. On the other hand, there is also an opportunity to pform the electricity supplier mode.

We also see that some brands are directly online, there are no stores on the line, but they can be very high.

It has been recognized by consumers.

There are still a lot of risks. The first is cotton prices.

Cotton prices directly affect the performance of upstream enterprises. At present, cotton prices have fallen below the 13 thousand expected bottom of the market. We think there are two reasons. First, the pformation of cotton from purchase and storage to direct subsidy. First, there is still 11 million tonnes of inventory pressure on state-owned cotton, so there is limited space even for anti ballistic missiles.

We have made systematic historical data analysis, and some market points of view believe that cotton prices fall well, and the gross profit margin of cotton spinning enterprises is improved. However, most cotton spinning enterprises have low bargaining power. Once the price of cotton falls, the order price will drop correspondingly. At the same time, the cotton flower inventory that has been stocked for 3 months in advance will also damage the gross profit margin.

Therefore, we regard this industry as a typical "Pro cyclical" industry, that is, cotton prices rise, profits are good, cotton prices fall and profits are poor.

Another is the long-term impact of the TPP agreement on China's textile and clothing exports.

The cost of labor, water and electricity in China is higher than that in Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam and Kampuchea.

In the medium to long term, the tariff cost between TPP countries will also be greatly reduced, and the long-term goal is zero tariff.

At present, due to the lack of skilled labor and supporting facilities, Southeast Asian countries are still mainly engaged in simple garment processing, such as printing and dyeing, high-end dyed fabrics and so on. However, the overseas pfer of textile enterprises' capacity and the replacement of Southeast Asia are the major trends.