China'S More Than 400 Robotics Enterprises Become Bubble? Machine Substitutions Take Time.

Not long ago, China's top leaders said that we should not only raise the level of robots, but also occupy the market as much as possible.

The direction of this sentence is accurate, and at the same time, it represents a great ardent hope for the industry. As a result, the robotics industry has been rapidly warming up in China. Land grant, allocation and construction of industrial parks have been eating up a huge Viagra in the relevant departments. They are passionate and consulting all over the world. The advanced motor center of University of Florida has a deep feeling of this phenomenon, the official told reporters: in recent months, he received several times the technical consulting volume of Chinese enterprises.

Chinese entrepreneurs are always crazy. There are two reasons why they tend to be irrational. One is to see others making money, the other is to speak by leaders. In essence, it is also a matter of money. After all, leadership is basically equivalent to subsidies.

In just two years, China

Enterprises have reached more than 400, but few of them can make high-quality products. More people just buy and design, buy parts, and then assemble robots. This is a relatively regular enterprise. The industry is full of large numbers of machine people. They have been hot in the market but have no technical contribution, and there is a big tendency to deceive a subsidy. So, the fervent robot market is bound to form a bubble quickly, like group buying, like the Internet in 90s, like real estate in twenty-first Century.

When the bubble burst, this group of machine owners can move to other industries, and the relevant departments will also have new achievement targets. They are never short of money, but the bubbles consume social resources over and over again, leaving behind only a pile of garbage and semi-finished products and nowhere to be placed.

Robots are so complex that they need technology to precipitate.

Robot villain: why does steel become foam?

In fact, people who know a bit about robotics will know that this is a very complex field. Even if it is simply assembled, it will be 60 times more difficult than iPhone6s, not to mention those highly precise components.

Now, Chinese enterprises use robots to make mobile phones.

Reducer, induction device and other core components, and then according to the instructions to assemble a machine villain, but the problem is that the robot is so complex, there are not enough mature enterprises in the world, can provide a robot turnkey program as "MediaTek provides mobile phone chips", and the demand for machine replacement is not clear, which is very easy to cause the machine's steel to become a huge bubble, the wind blow, it will collapse!

Now, the application of robots in the industrial field is concentrated on the automobile manufacturing industry, and only the rough procedures such as spraying and welding are completed. Some precise assembly still depends on human hands. At present, there are not enough sensitive mechanical arms to simulate human neurons. The managers of the manufacturing industry in China still need to recruit millions of natural persons to meet the production needs every year. In addition, service robots are rapidly warming up, such as robot attendants, their attitude is amiable, entertainment robot beauty, romantic styles, and medical robots.

These robots seem to be very loose, but the specific environment to China is far from meeting the needs of mass production. Moreover, the maturity of home robots should be accompanied by the coordinated development of hardware and software, including induction sensitivity, big data analysis or cloud computing. In other words, robots need to have the body of steel and the need for soft souls if they want to really walk into the homes of ordinary people. Therefore, these high-end robots should not exist in public posters. They should stay in the laboratory quietly and grow slowly. They are eager to get rid of the constraints of the uterus and turn themselves into premature babies. The main purpose is not to earn money and to cater for political achievements.

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Machine bubble, the bubble of steel will consume a lot of energy in society. This kind of energy not only refers to money, but also the training of sophisticated talents. In fact, once the society is full of quick success and instant benefits, few people can do basic research. After all, the success of others and the enjoyment of others will easily stimulate those who are willing to take the technical route. The end result is that all of us are engaged in investment, propaganda and speech, but no one has thoroughly studied the core servers and decelerator parts, resulting in low value-added of the whole industry, and the future can only do some shallow work.

If the author is rich, he will never build a big building. To build a vast industrial park, he only needs to find a few cottages that are warm in winter and cool in summer. He will pull up a wave of technical people to do research, give money to them by saving money from big projects and propaganda, so that technicians can get enough respect and let knowledge, patents and experience become the value icon of the whole society.

Walk slowly. Machines need time to change.

There are no robots in China. At best, there are only robots. If they want to grow up, they must respect the basic laws of the development of things. This is about system, culture and human nature.

Now, the Chinese robot industry has been overheating, and the scale of the more than 400 enterprises is very large. But as mentioned above, these are all bubbles, and the wind blew up. Experts say that according to the needs of the current Chinese society, the 4~5 quality enterprises can be left. Moreover, from the perspective of social harmony, we are not likely to have the chance to implement machine replacement strategy in a short time.

In many comments, the author mentions the matter of personnel training. Ultimately, the development of society should be attributed to human development. Without talent, there is nothing. The ultimate goal of development is to let people live a good life. Human beings are unhappy. Any GDP, technology and index are all floating clouds.

As we all know, China is a large populous country, and because of this seemingly unlimited labor force, it is with this infinite resource that we have the myth made in China.

Now, with the increase of labor costs, some leading eyes have begun to pform and take a strategy of machine substitution, but at the same time, they should take into account the employment rate.

It is true that in order to obtain employment, deliberately reservations of low-end manufacturing, which sounds like a paradox, can only be slowly digested, and experts say that the development of robots can provide new jobs, but the problem is that the vocational education of this generation of workers in China is generally not high, and it is difficult to upgrade from pipelining workers to R & D posts in a short time. Machine turnover is too fast, which may lead to mass unemployment and cause social problems. Perhaps we can only wait for this group of workers to retire, and at the same time, train a generation of workers.

The most sensible way for China to be a robot is not to be led by the government or the new entrepreneurs, but also by enterprises. They understand the demand of the process and the employment situation. They can easily grasp the rhythm of the machine replacement. The government and its subsidies are given to those entrepreneurs. It is better to give some frontier enterprises the money for robot research and development. After all, the cost of a robot is equivalent to the annual income of 5~6 employees, so it is not easy to import smoothly.

Maybe the robot strategy in front of China should be changed to automation.

The first thing we need to do is not to replace machines, but to combine human and machine, to liberate human beings from heavy, boring and monotonous work, so that they can have time and energy to grow up. This is the right way.