Explain Why Investors In The Us Do Not Scold The Government.

Why do Chinese investors like to curse? The reason is that the market capitalization of retail investors accounts for 15% of the market value of the market, but the paction volume accounts for 85%. Therefore, retail investors are the main force in the market. Everyone in the stock market is a trading expert.

So why do American investors not scold the government? The apparent reason is probably very few retail investors. The paction accounts for only 20% of the total market.

The remaining 80% are institutions. They are more rational.

The underlying reason is that the US government has little influence on the stock market.

I have been thinking about the central point of the Third Plenary Session: let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources, and the government will play an important role.

Therefore,

In the market, the government plays an important role, even though retail investors play a decisive role in the fluctuation of stock prices.

Since the government plays an important role, it is easy to understand when the stock price falls sharply and the investors lose heavily.

So what role does the national government play in the stock market? It should be a lot.

For example, issuance is controlled, not only is the amount restricted, but also the issue price is controlled.

For example, the government can carry out "window guidance" in a big way when the stock market changes. Securities firms, public offering funds, venture capital and social security institutions should be guided. The listed companies under the state owned assets system also have high awareness.

Again, the "national team" can also directly enter the market to save the market. If the rescue fund reaches 2 trillion, it is equivalent to 10% of the market value of free circulation.

In addition, the official media can influence investors' expectations through the guidance of public opinion; local governments can influence stock prices by guiding listed companies to take M & A, backdoor listing and policy support, etc.

Now that the government is in

There are so many roles and influence that investors can criticize.

The marginal benefit of "government's role" is decreasing.

In the past 10 years, the value added of state-owned enterprises in GDP has decreased by 10%, although private enterprises have been complaining about "going back to the country" and will continue to decline in the future.

In addition, banks have given most of their resources to state-owned enterprises and local governments, but the latter are all highly debt.

It can be seen that "government's role" often leads to inefficient allocation of resources, and at the same time, the availability of resources will be less and less.

For example, the proceeds from land leasing are decreasing and bank deposits are losing.

For the stock market, the role of the government is also declining.

Today, there is a popular saying in the WeChat group: before the Long March, the Red Army was nearly 300 thousand, and the remaining 25 thousand in Northern Shaanxi.

If we make a K-line chart, it will show a deficit of 92%... It seems that investors have begun to doubt the "role of the government".

Today, the European Union postponed deciding whether to give China a market economy status. Thus, the market economy is still a good thing.

As a group of retail experts who have long struggled on the forefront of the stock market, they should really change their minds and not always expect the government to rescue the market with policies.

There will still be some measures to save the market, but the effect is decreasing.

One day, Chinese retail investors will no longer worry about the expansion of new shares as worried about plague. By that time, the market will be healthy.

Split the share price into "market price" and "government credit warrant price".

As mentioned before, the A share market is obviously "protected".

If the A share market allows the government to withdraw, such as the implementation of the company system on the stock exchange, not to the regulatory authorities, the stock issue will follow the market, the company will lose money, the market will meet the delisting request, and the government will no longer bear the responsibility for the stability index. Then the price of many stocks will be unable to sustain, and the reduction of the total market value from this can be regarded as the valuation of the "government role".

Therefore, many stock valuation levels remain at a high level for a long time, which implies "government credit warrant price".

Even as a private listed company's shell resources stock, its noble price is also caused by market control.

From the perspective of PE and PB median, A shares are the most expensive stock in the world. This is mainly due to the value of "government credit card price", because it not only implies the price of "confidence index", but also implies "credit" price and "asset injection or reorganization" price.

Many people worry that the impact of registration system on stock prices is not necessary.

Because the regulatory authorities are implied to stabilize the market.

The stability of the market is shields, and the regulators will not attack each other in a single hand with a shield in one hand.

Therefore, we must not regard this stock market decline as a market clearing and a return to value.

In the past 25 years, the reduction of every round of China's stock market has been considered by many scholars to be a return of value, so to calculate the "reasonable valuation" level and reasonable index level.

But as long as the government still plays a very important role in the stock market, this "government warrant price" is not a bubble, but a real "value".