Interpretation Of The Stock Market: Overshoot And Rebound

Last week's downtrend continued, and the market continued to tumbled this week. It lost a number of important integer points, and on Thursday it reached a minimum of 2867 points, hitting the lowest 2850 point in last year's stock market crash.

2850 whether the support can be formed is the focus of everyone's attention.

There are private individuals who believe that with the exchange rate and the reduction of major shareholders,

After the reform and other early negative factors gradually stabilized, the adjustment of A shares will come to an end. Over pessimism is no longer necessary, there are also private equity claims, the bear market has long arrived.

This week, market inertia has fallen, and the weekly chart shows that there have been three consecutive weeks.

No matter the daily line or the weekly line, there is a complete blank arrangement.

There is no doubt that the trend of the market is very ugly.

Now the market's vision has been placed on last year's low 2850 whether can form the support.

To be fair, from the big perspective, the 2850 point is indeed at stake.

Because from the 3680 point of the fall is unlikely to form a flat box finishing wave band trend.

The 3680 point is clearly the wave band of a group of C waves.

However, in the short term, the support of the 2850 point is likely to be maintained.

This is not just because the market has been down for three weeks, and the daily line index is obviously deviated from that.

The reason why the deviant degree is obviously bigger is known for all reasons, and more importantly, from the operational structure of the index, a group of falling waves beginning at the 3680 point has clearly come to an end.

In this way, the technical judgment structure is the overshoot and rebound.

It can be seen that the so-called "strong flat" risk problem that the market is worried about is more likely to be caused by investors' self expectation and self reinforcement.

Actually, this week

The reason why we want to play off is objectively reflecting the panic mentality of the market.

Although I also worry that these strong platters will suppress the rebound power of the market, I also consider another aspect.

First, the financing and the pledge will not wait until the trigger line is strong again. In accordance with the normal procedures, these plates either entered the process of opening the warehouse in advance or found the corresponding margin security pad.

Any bank will not be foolish enough to go strong even after triggering a strong tie line.

Because Hira Kurakiwa could not sell well.

Banks will never undertake such operational risks.

Secondly, in turn, if a large number of strong flat plates really fail to find any safety cushion in advance and are forced to enter the strong leveling process, there is no doubt that the loss is not only the parties but our banking system.

And if the banking system is damaged, it is not afraid to cause a series of bad financial consequences. Therefore, even if we look at the problem from the perspective of financial risk mitigation, management will not allow the financing disk and the pledge to enter the warehouse directly.

So there is no doubt about the way out.

Where is the way out? My view is that either let the market stabilize for a period of time to give an exit time for the merger, or enter the suspension process as some listed companies do.

As for this stable role, who will play the role? Of course, the national team! After all, guarding against financial risks is the primary task.

Moreover, from the whole year's thinking to consider the problem, now the chips near the 3000 point must be a chip to make money.

I still believe that the operation of the market has its objective rules.

The market trend reflects more fundamental and financial aspects.

Although today's market has entered the adjustment process of C wave, there is also a necessary rebound in the decline of C wave.

Because falling is also a process of energy gathering.

Therefore, although the large market shape is not ideal, but I still believe that the short-term rebound is imminent.

Next week, the market is likely to rebound week.