Ren Zeping: Supply Side Reform Icebreaking Or Coming

China's economy has entered a slow dip period from the rapid decline period. The L model with a weak balance in the future economy may have a 3-5 year adjustment period. The market should have a full estimate.

The core points of the Ren Zeping report are as follows:

1. the world economy: three track operation.

The fundamental problem of the current world economic situation is that the monetary rhythm is inconsistent due to the disintegration of the recovery process, which leads to increased international capital flows, intensified financial market turbulence, increased vulnerability of emerging economies and frequent black swans.

2., China's economy: L type and structural differentiation.

From the perspective of speed shifting process, it has entered a slow period of rapid decline. The L with a weak balance in the future economy may have a 3-5 year adjustment period. The market should be fully estimated.

Due to the high base and micro stimulation effect of the financial industry, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2016 was reduced to 6.5%.

China has a vast market of 1 billion 370 million people. Although the macro economy is short of growth, there is no shortage of business in the micro scale, nor does it lack the rise of great companies.

3. price: overcapacity, large bear market.

Continued.

4, macroeconomic regulation and control: loose money, fiscal release and stable exchange rate.

RMB internationalization and inclusion in SDR need to increase capital account liberalization and exchange rate marketization reform.

But at present, the domestic economic recession and deflationary demand require the central bank to further reduce interest rates and reduce the accuracy. This has increased the pressure of capital outflow and RMB devaluation.

It is estimated that there will be 1-2 reductions in interest rates 6-8 times in 2016, and that the RMB exchange rate will be under pressure for a long time, which will depend on the prospects of reform in the long run.

5. the timetable and roadmap for reform: starting from fiscal and taxation, ending with state-owned enterprises and sandwiching financial resources, there are three conditions for successful reopening of reform: political control, and consensus and values.

6. since the adjustment of 5000 point,

Gradually approaching the end of the adjustment.

Stock game, 2016 is the era of trading and thematic investment, the structural market under the shock market is different from the trend investment of 2014-2015 years. The future molecular L type, risk free interest rate will still have a certain drop in space but not much. There is a process for the restoration of risk appetite. In the past year, the market's expectation for reform is from scratch, as long as it can not be falsified.

Concerned about 13th Five-Year, mixed reform pilot, military reform, registration system and emerging industries.

7. bond market: since June 2015, debt Bull has been mainly driven by stock market bear and bear switching, outflow of capital and expected deviation of economic fundamentals. The driving force of future debt cattle comes from monetary easing.

Decline, economic fundamentals and so on.

8. the new trend of the long term inflection point of real estate is "total slowdown and structural differentiation".

9. the three track operation of the world economy, the dollar peaked, but still in a strong cycle, commodity prices bottom adjustment.

10., risk warning: Federal Reserve raising interest rate and strong dollar; resource countries in emerging economies; China's economic L type is just weak balance and easy to be broken; the disorderly deleveraging and capital chain breaking of the three big black holes; in the chain of tight links, the policy of non prudent operation may be misread and amplified by the market.

On the stock market, Ren Zeping said that since the adjustment of the 5000 point, the market is gradually approaching the end of the adjustment. Under the stock game, 2016 is the era of paction and thematic investment, focusing on the 13th Five-Year, mixed reform pilot, military reform, registration system and emerging industries.