Financial Assets Are Better Than Real Estate And Bank Deposits.

As far as financial assets are concerned, both the stock market and the bond market have gone through a bull market that has lasted for two years. The probability of a big bull market in the next 1 years is expected to be small.

If there are bull markets, we are more inclined to the market, but there are still opportunities in the financial market, but there are limited opportunities.

If you want to get rich on the stock market, there are only three possible ways: first, to rely on listed companies, two to rely on the central bank, and three to rely on others.

The first one depends on the economy, and the economic good companies make a good profit. Just like Moutai and Tencent, the stock price has risen tens or even hundreds of times. The main reason is that the profit of the company keeps growing. The second way is to print money, and the central bank printing money is happy. It seems that everyone has made money. The essence is actually more money than money.

For example, in the United States, the stock market has gone up in the QE market.

China's stock market has risen sharply since 2014, largely because the central bank has started to cut interest rates continuously. There are third ways to rely on intelligence quotient. If you earn someone else's money, it means you are smarter than others, and smart people earn the money of fools.

Over the past two years, the overall A share has increased by more than 80%. However, from the perspective of earnings performance, the overall growth rate of A shares has increased by less than 10% in the past two years, of which 6% in 2014 and 6% in the first 3 quarters.

From the best gem, the cumulative growth of these 3 years is close to 300%, but the cumulative profit growth rate is only 70%. In 2013, the profit growth rate was 10%, and the 2014-2015 year profit growth rate was around 25%.

This shows that most of A share gains and profits are not related, even if the growth of the best gem, earnings growth is far behind the share price increase.

In the past two years, A shares are mainly making money from the central bank.

At the beginning of 2014, China's 10 year treasury bond interest rate was around 5%, corresponding to the stock valuation of 20 times PE, while the latest China 10 year treasury bond interest rate was about 3%, corresponding to the stock valuation equivalent to 33 times PE, so the stock market valuation could rise to 33 times from 20 to 70% as interest rate fell, which could explain the rise of the A stock market since 2014, all of the money sent by the central bank.

Everyone likes to earn other people's money, because there are so many leeks in A shares.

Similarly, from the gem, profit growth has increased by 70% over the past 3 years, and interest rate declines can rise by about 70% of the valuation. It is reasonable to increase 190% after the overlay. From the 700 point at the end of 2012, it can be explained that the increase to 2000 points is still explained, but it still can not explain why the gem has increased 300% in the past 3 years, and now it has reached 2800 points.

There is only one explanation for the above part. Everyone wants to earn money from others.

Why is the same thing, A shares are so much more expensive than Hong Kong stocks? An important reason is that A shares have capital controls, so they can't get rid of money, so there is a premium.

If it can only be allocated domestically, there are four main categories of assets in the country. The two largest categories are real estate and deposits, and the volume is over 100 trillion.

Less than 2%, the deposit interest rate is less than 2%, which is more than 50 times the valuation.

The other two are the stock market and the bond market, all of which are about 50 trillion orders of magnitude. At present, the interest rate of the bonds is still around 4%-5%, and the blue chip dividend rate represented by the above 50 cards is around 3%, which exceeds the rate of return less than 2% of real estate and deposits. Therefore, in the whole country, the stock market bond market is better than the real estate and bank deposits.

But as far as financial assets are concerned, both the stock market and the bond market have gone through a bull market for two years. The probability of a big bull market in the next 1 years is expected to be small.

If there are bull markets, we are more inclined to the market, but there are still opportunities in the financial market, but there are limited opportunities.

We did a historical study of the US and Japan, including China, and found that the average return of US stocks in the past 100 years was only 6% (not counting the dividend rate), and the nominal growth rate of GDP was almost the same as that of 6%.

The Japanese stock market has not paid back in the past 20 years, because its economy has not increased in the past 20 years.

China's economy has grown by an average of 14% over the past 10 years.

The average rate of return is 14%.

History tells us that the long-term returns of financial markets are comparable to those of the real economy. Finance does not create extra value. Finance is not alchemy.

In the future, the domestic interest rate has limited space and the valuation space is limited. This means that the future bond market must rely on coupons, and the stock market depends on the profits of enterprises. But the latter two are not easy. Therefore, if we can get a similar 4%-5% return with the nominal growth rate of GDP, it will not be very good.

This is actually what Professor Song Guoqing said: in the future, we should get used to receiving 3%-4% returns every year.

Lower returns

You can still find the right assets to earn a healthy return.

For example, the current high level corporate bond interest rate can also reach 4%-5%, while the premium blue chip dividend rate can reach about 3%, plus 5% profit growth, the return of 5%-10% should also be easy.

If expectations are too high, they may end up with no grain.

From a single individual, it is no problem to earn more money, but if the whole market wants to earn money from others, it is theoretically impossible.

We said that many of the stock gods who had made their worship before the ceremony were later found to be making profits by unfair means.

The so-called "slow is fast", it is recommended that you reduce the 2016 expectations, there may be unexpected gains.