Whether Cotton Can Curb The Trend Of Decreasing Area Is Unknown.

Recently, Zheng cotton main contract continued downward 1605, the average system also diverged.

Textile consumption in the lower reaches is sluggish, and it is expected that the latter will continue to decline.

Due to the poor economic environment, the domestic demand market downturn, the fierce competition in the export market, the import of yarn and cloth to occupy the domestic share and the substitution of chemical fiber, China has many factors.

The situation is more severe, and cotton consumption has obviously shrunk.

The terminal demand of cotton downstream is very low, which restricts the textile enterprises to take the goods, thereby dragging their enthusiasm for stocking.

Moreover, the shortage of funds in textile enterprises is relatively common, which restricts the procurement progress, and the supply of cotton market is still loose.

Before the substantial improvement in downstream consumption, cotton prices rose powerless.

First, textile and garment retail has improved, but the effect is not obvious.

According to the statistics of the China National Business Information Center, in October 2015, the retail sales of clothing commodities of hundreds of major retail enterprises in China increased by 1.9% over the same period last year, reversing the 3 consecutive month of decline since June. The growth rate is 4.4 percentage points faster than the same period in 2014, which is 6.7 percentage points higher than that in September.

At the same time, the retail volume data show that in October, there were hundreds of key large-scale enterprises in China.

Retail sales of all kinds of clothing increased by 8.5% over the same period last year, 0.5 percentage points lower than in September.

According to the published data, domestic clothing sales improved in October, but it was not obvious. The domestic sales of China's textile and clothing remained depressed.

Second, textile and clothing exports continued to grow negative year-on-year.

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs show that in November 2015, China

Exports amounted to US $21 billion 982 million, down 7.07%, down 9.71% from the same period last year.

As of November 2015, there was a negative growth in export of textiles and clothing in 10 months, indicating that the downstream consumption demand of cotton is not optimistic.

Third, the enthusiasm of the textile enterprises as a whole is poor.

China cotton information network statistics show that in November 2015, the textile enterprises in the warehouse stock of 419 thousand tons, an increase of 29 thousand and 600 tons compared to October, textile enterprises can control cotton inventory of 421 thousand and 900 tons, compared with October to reduce 15 thousand tons.

In that month, cotton spot market resources were relatively abundant. Most enterprises were worried about the limited number of high-grade cotton, and later procurement was not easy to group, but centralized replenishment.

However, due to the lack of confidence in the market and the tight funds, many enterprises maintain a relatively low disposable inventory and weaken their purchasing intention later.

Some farmers said that the input and output of corn were basically flat and the income was limited.

Although the price of cotton market is low, the income of cotton farmers is limited, but under the policy of target price subsidy, the production activities of cotton farmers have been guaranteed.

Especially in Xinjiang, the average subsidy per mu is 400-500 yuan / mu, much higher than grain subsidy.

However, the mainland subsidy is relatively limited, most of which remain at 100-200 yuan / mu.

Because of the high cost of planting cotton, especially the need to invest a lot of manpower, subsidies can be a drop in the bucket.

The US Department of agriculture's December supply and demand report predicts that the total cotton output in 2015/2016 will be 22 million 580 thousand tons, 417 thousand tons lower than the November forecast value, the global consumption of 24 million 252 thousand tons, the reduction of 44 thousand tons, the global import and export volume of 7 million 700 thousand tons, the increase of 220 thousand tons, the end of the global period 22 million 729 thousand tons, the reduction of 369 thousand tons, and the global inventory consumption ratio of 93.72%, down by 7.76 percentage points year-on-year.