Discussions On The Trend Of Cotton Prices In 2016 Are Also Increasing.

In 2016, what is the demand for spinning cotton in China? In the past few years, China's textile industry was in a period of rapid expansion, and the amount of cotton used per year was about 12 million tons.

But in recent years, the development of China's textile industry has entered a cooling period. The amount of spinning cotton has dropped to about 7 million tons per year, especially the substitution of chemical fiber and other fibers to cotton has been increasing.

It is inclined to produce blended yarn. It is estimated that China's spinning cotton will be around 6 million 500 thousand tons in 2016.

It is worth mentioning that in recent years, China's textile industry high count yarn production capacity has continued to expand, while the low and medium yarn production capacity is showing a rapid downward trend.

Mr. Liu, manager of a textile enterprise in Shandong, said that in 2015, the production capacity of 50-80 yarn in their factory increased by 20 thousand spindles, while 21S and 32S decreased by 20 thousand spindles simultaneously.

Some people in the industry estimate that from 2013 to the end of 2015, the national cotton yarn production capacity dropped by about 40%, but the output of 50 or more medium and high count yarn increased by about 20%.

High count yarn has strict requirements for raw cotton. Many enterprises only choose high-quality cotton, cotton and Xinjiang cotton with cotton.

Therefore, the demand for quality cotton in textile enterprises increased in 2016, while that of cotton in general quality decreased.

According to the state

According to the market monitoring system, the total output of cotton in 2015 was 5 million 216 thousand tons, a decrease of 21.2% over the same period last year.

Of course, the supply of cotton plus about 10000000 tons of national cotton stocks.

In the near future, a hot topic in the market is when the national cotton reserves will go out.

In 2016, the policy background was "going out of stock, going to capacity, deleveraging". In 2016, the national cotton store came out of the game. The market is not expected to be too high, at least to maintain the current level of 12000-13000 yuan / ton, and even some enterprises believe that the price of the national cotton mill should be 10000 yuan / ton and below.

In addition, one problem may be overlooked, that is, in 2015, cotton production in the whole country not only decreased but also decreased in quality.

A Xinjiang textile enterprise official said that in 2015 Xinjiang cotton (including mainland cotton)

The decline is mainly due to shorter fibers, thickening and rising horse values. This is a common phenomenon.

In the past years, Xinjiang and the mainland accounted for more than 85% of cotton quality at grade 3128B and less than 60% in 2015, and almost no high-quality cotton of 3129, 2129 and 1129.

Generally speaking, 3128 grade lint is suitable for spinning 32 or 40 regular yarn. If spinning more than 50 high count yarn, cotton with better quality is needed for cotton blending. It is also difficult to find cotton suitable for spinning high count yarn from national storage cotton.

Therefore, from the perspective of supply, China's high quality cotton is tight in 2016, while low quality cotton is oversupplied.

From this point of view, in 2016, domestic cotton prices will appear "ice and fire two days" situation, high and low quality cotton price difference may continue to widen.