After The 2800 Point Of Failure, Where Will The Experts Call The Clouds For You?

On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2800 points and fell below the 2700 mark in early trading today.

Li Daxiao, chief economist of British securities, said at micro-blog that the bottom of the baby had been fixed on 2692.97 points with iron, and Li Xiao Xiao believed that there were 5 reasons for the 2 bake at the 2692.97 point: 1, in fact, there was no real breakdown of the bottom of the baby, and the 50 of the blue chips (1874) had not been punctured. 2 of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 had a dividend yield of 3.89%, and the dividend rate of the bank shares was 5.7%, significantly exceeding the yield of the annual treasury bond yield; the RMB exchange rate and the Hongkong linked exchange rate stabilized; the central Bank significantly injected liquidity into the market; and domestic and foreign long term capital allocation A stocks should be strong.

But the market is not uniformly optimistic. Many investors and institutions are strongly concerned about the 2500 point:

Northeast Securities

Northeast Securities believes that, looking ahead, taking into account the lack of confidence in A shares and the unsteadiness of its own valuation system, the market still has the market bottom requirement before strong and effective management intervention; and the possible position at the bottom of the market is at the starting point of 998 points in 2005 and the extension line of 8% annual growth (2300-2500 points).

2015 Ye Fei, a fund manager with second earnings from private equity funds, recently said that crude oil was falling again and the external market was in a doldrums.

These factors are the main reasons for affecting the capital market. In addition, the stock market's overall performance has been depressed in recent years.

Short term stock market may continue to explore, but 2500 is a strong support, as for the market bottom, about 5178 of 1/2.

In 2016, the market's reasonable valuation center was around 3000, but the market will show a trend of wide concussion around the reasonable valuation center. The main interval between 2500--4500 points does not exclude the multiple resonance of several catalysts, resulting in the market similar to the stage of the two quarter of 2015.

Hong Kong International managing director and chief strategist Hong Hao recently said that the similarity between China's bubble and the NASDAQ bubble showed that the Shanghai stock market could further drop to 2500 after overselling technical repair.

In last December 9th's report, Hong Hao said that by comparing the bond yields and stock profit rates, the bottom line of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's reasonable trading area was 2500 points.

The stock market between 2500~2900 points is relatively cheap.

And Hong Hao believes that the national team may rescue the market again near the 2500 point.

Founder Securities

In the history of A shares, the bottom of the market itself is the real bottom (including the end of the stage), but such a large scale stop means that the market itself is at least invalid in the short term, and how to avoid the collapse is a major issue.

For the next market trend, we will continue to be cautious in the short term. According to the normal market, the market adjustment stage should be at the bottom of 200 points in 2850, the lowest point is 2645 points.

GF fund

Liu Xiaolong, the leading fund manager of GF, said that the global economic performance was already poor. The market anticipate that a crisis has been included in the price, and the fall always occurs when the gap between reality and expectation is bigger.

At the 2500 point of the Shanghai Composite Index, the 1500 point of the gem is a solid bottom, and the usual bottom of the market is about the level of 10~20% above that.

Rita futures

The main indexes fell more than 6% on Tuesday, and the Shanghai stock index fell below 2850 points. This technical breakthrough has made the downward trend since the end of December continue. The oversea stock market is not good enough, the market sentiment is frustrated, the volume is low and the volume is weak. The short term stock index will continue to carry out the downward trend. The target will be near the Shanghai Stock Index 2500.