Fourth Quarter Consumption Is Lower Than Expected Textile And Garment Industry Optimistic About Mergers And Acquisitions And Transformation

　　 clothing The 15 year single Q4 terminal retail data is lower than expected, and is expected to be mainly affected by warm winter weather. Q4 total textile and apparel wholesale and retail quota above the quota increased by 7.5% over the same period last year, which is similar to that of Q3. But the number of clothing retail sales of 100 /50 large retail enterprises accelerated in 11 and December, and the number of data dropped by 5% and 7.7%, while 50 data fell 3.6% and 7.8%. This is consistent with the trend of our clothing company's grassroots data. We expect the core factor to be warm winter weather, and the actual purchasing power of residents has not declined significantly. In the slow recovery of the textile and garment industry, the slope is low and there are twists and turns.

Annual report performance is expected to continue differentiation, leisure leading growth is better, men's clothing gradually revival. Reverse category; 2) casual clothing continues to differentiate, and the overall growth trend is unchanged. Leading Semir casual wear is expected to remain normal throughout the winter, and the wholesale mode is relatively small. 3) the outdoor goods industry is slowing down compared with previous years. It is expected that the outdoor sports participation of the public will increase the inflection point of the driving industry. 4) high-end women's clothing is dominated by 100 Cargo channels, and no obvious improvement has been made; 5) the domestic textile industry has been growing steadily, leading companies are actively exploring new fields such as large household and service industries; 6) the recovery of the men's shoes industry is weak, and the leading AOKANG has benefited from income recovery and impairment reduction; 7) textile manufacturing is showing a good trend, and the depreciation of the people's money is expected to be beneficial to the leading industry, and the company with overseas production capacity will also benefit from TPP.. According to our three quarterly performance report, the molecular industry will see: 1) the 4Q year-end growth rate of men's clothing leading men's LAN home is expected to slow down, and business men's clothing will continue to recover.

We expect textile clothing The performance of key industry companies in 2015 is as follows:

1) there are 11 companies with a growth rate of over 20%: cross border, Shanghai Jahwa, Huafu color spinning, AOKANG international, search for special, Jen Sheng group, Maison culture, YOUNGOR, Hai Lan home; Semir apparel, Maison;

2) there are 8 companies with 0-20% growth rate: Roley home textiles, fuanna, INTERCHINA group, Meng Jie home textile, Sanfo outdoor, Jiumu Wang, noble bird, Xun Xing shares.

3) there are 11 companies with a growth rate of less than 0: seven wolves, Pathfinder, happy bird, Dayang creation, Lu Tai, Baron East, Jiaxin silk, Langer, Ka Nu Di Road, walth shares, Jialin Jie.

Investment recommendations: 16 years is the textile and garment industry mergers and acquisitions in the new year, optimistic about the extension of expectations, and good direction of transformation + with the major shareholders' demands consistent with the elastic target. Recommended targets: 1) active transformation target: seven wolves, business win global, Pathfinder, shares of shares; 2) determinate high growth target: cross border pass; 3) small market elastic target: Mei Xinda, card slave Road 4) oversold value white horse: Hai Lan's home, Semir dress.

Huafu color spinning: fixed 2 billion 200 million increase in Vietnam and Xinjiang, capacity layout adjustment

Huafu color spinning 002042

Research Institute: Everbright Securities analyst: Li Jie's writing date: 2015-12-25

The company's three quarterly report expects net profit year-on-year increase of 80%~120%. We judge: 1) the company's performance has been continuously improved, and the gradual stabilization of cotton prices is conducive to the improvement of gross profit margin; 2) to further utilize the preferential policies and expand the scale effect of Xinjiang's taxation and other policies, we have signed the investment agreement of 1 million color spun yarn and 60 thousand ton cotton dyeing project of Akesu Huafu Heng Tian color textile industrial park in July, and Xinjiang has become the key expansion area of future capacity. At the same time, with the expansion of the scale of production capacity in Xinjiang, the government will enjoy a certain amount of government subsidies in the period of construction and completion, and increase the scale of non main revenue gradually. 3) increase Vietnam's subsidiaries and build Vietnam's colored spinning production base, and Vietnam's capacity expansion will benefit from preferential tariffs brought about by the implementation of the TPP agreement; 4) expand the business development space on the basis of the main business, set up a network chain investment of 500 million yuan, develop supply chain business, and plan to access vertical integrated apparel business platform, and expect the supply chain platform to fall in the first quarter of 2016; 5) the cost of 1:9's leveraged employee stock ownership plan is 11.47 yuan, and the lockup period is 2015.6.30-2016.6.29.

At present, the company has a market value of 10 billion 600 million, and continues to be optimistic about the gradual release of the company's future capacity and the promotion of new business in the supply chain. The adjustment of EPS for the 15-17 years is 0.42, 0.48 and 0.55 yuan respectively, and the increase in the share capital will be diluted by EPS after the completion of the increase, and the "buy" rating will be maintained.

Risk warning: capacity construction projects are not advancing as expected, and new business in the supply chain is less than expected.

Hai Lan's home: layout intelligent logistics warehouse, optimistic about annual performance exceeding expected growth

Hai Lan's home 600398

Research Institute: Pacific analyst: Cheng Xiaodong, Liu Li's writing date: 2015-10-23

Events: in the first three quarters of 2015, the company achieved operating income of 11 billion 325 million yuan, an increase of 39.04% over the same period last year, and realized a total profit of 3 billion 44 million yuan, an increase of 42.33% over the same period last year. The net profit of the parent company was 2 billion 290 million yuan, up 41.95% over the same period last year. To achieve earnings per share of 0.51 yuan.

Among them, Q3 achieved 3 billion 392 million yuan in 2015, an increase of 37.79% over the same period, and a net profit of 624 million yuan, representing an increase of 61.91% over the same period.

Hai Lan home and Bai Yi Shun Shun exceed the expected growth rate: in the first three quarters of 2015, Hai Lan home brand realized income of about 9 billion 200 million yuan, an increase of 42% over the same period last year; the brand of Bai Yi Shun Shun achieved an income of about 250 million yuan, an increase of 183% over the same period last year, and San Keno achieved an income of about 1 billion 300 million yuan, down 4% from the same period last year. E-commerce business revenue of about 370 million yuan, an increase of 110% over the same period, is expected to complete the electricity business year 800 million yuan sales plan.

The gross profit margin declined slightly: the gross profit margin of the first three quarters was 39.82%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, down 0.09 percentage points from the same period last year. The cost control is relatively strong: the period cost rate is 12.85%, and the ratio is down 0.98 percentage points, down 1.22 percentage points compared to the same period. The sales cost rate was 7.75%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points, up 0.28 percentage points compared to the same period, mainly due to the increase of advertising fees, staff salaries, and direct store rentals with the expansion of sales scale. The management fee rate was 5.84 percentage points, up 0.62 percentage points, down 1.55 percentage points compared with that of the previous year, and the financial cost rate was -0.73 percentage points, up 0.08 percentage points, up 0.06 percentage points over the same period.

The expansion of the channel and the sales volume of the same store maintained a high growth: as of September 30th, the number of stores in Hai Lan's home was 3450, an increase of 100 compared with the beginning of the year, and the number of stores was home, which increased by 40 compared with the beginning of the year. From the sales volume of retail terminals, the same store growth in the first three quarters was 23%.

Stock in autumn and winter led to high inventory level: by September 30th, the company's stock amount was 8 billion 977 million yuan, an increase of 47.50% compared with the 6 billion 86 million yuan at the beginning of the year, and the stock growth was due to the preparation in autumn and winter. Among them, the stock of Hai Lan's home is about 8 billion yuan, and Bai Yi Shun is about 400 million yuan.

Intelligent logistics warehouse construction project: in order to meet the needs of marketing network expansion, improve logistics efficiency and further enhance the market competitiveness of the company, the company intends to build "intelligent logistics warehouse construction project". The total investment amount is 1 billion 307 million yuan. The project is located at the Huashi Industrial Park in Hai Lan, Jiangyin. The land area is about 177 mu, and six intelligent warehouses are planned to be built. The total construction area is 473 thousand square meters, and 2318 sets of all kinds of equipment are purchased. After full load operation, the project will have a turnover capacity of 150 million pieces / year. The project is to complete investment in construction within 2 years and complete all the investment in the next 3 years. The normal annual income is 360 million yuan and the internal rate of return is 9.57% after tax.

Investment recommendations: combined with the latest three quarterly reports, the company's earnings per share for 15-17 years were 0.74 yuan, 1 yuan and 1.45 yuan respectively. According to the closing price of 15.73 yuan in October 20th, the corresponding P / E ratios were 21 times, 15.73 times, 10.84 times respectively. The valuation level is lower in the brand clothing section, slightly higher than the employee stock ownership price 15.2 yuan. Considering that the market value of the company is large, the price elasticity of the shares is small, and it can be arranged in a long line, giving a "buy" rating.

Semir Costumes: glory reappear, better than ever.

Semir costumes 002563

Research Institute: Yuan Da securities analyst: Liu Peiyun's writing date: 2016-01-05

The center will be the first to Semir In the scope of the study, a buy rating, target price of 15 yuan, was obtained based on 26 times estimated earnings per share in 2016 and implied 21% rise. The reason why we are optimistic about Semir is that it has the leading position in the leisure and children's clothing market, and its profit visibility is rising day by day. We anticipate that the following factors are expected to drive Semir valuations up: 1) the company's leisure apparel brands have regained operational growth, and the estimated annual compound growth rate is 15% over the next 2015-17 years; 2) Semir's children's clothing brand BAlabala will remain the leading position, and the estimated annual compound growth rate of 16.5% in 2015-17 years is 16.5%. 3) the company has excellent advantages and is expected to benefit from the trend of e-commerce. The gross profit margin of children's clothing business has increased, and the gross profit margin is expected to be expanded.

Semir brand glory reappearance: as China's leading leisure apparel brand, Semir has resumed its kinetic energy after 2012-14 years of overstock problems, and has been operating in the first half of 2015. The research center predicts that with the expansion of Semir brand strongholds, its annual compound growth rate of revenue can rise from 0.2% in 2012-14 to 15% in 2015-17 years.

Balabala brand continues to drive growth: Despite the fragmented market structure, the market share of Balabala has increased from 1.9% in 2010 to 3.6% in 2014. We believe that with the following competitive advantages, Balabala will maintain its leading position: 1) the sales network covers a wide range / across the country; 2) the brand enjoys a good reputation; 3) the product quality is reliable, and the pricing strategy of "parity value" is adopted.

The strength of e-commerce is strong: Semir's online sales increased by 82.8% in 2014 to about 940 million yuan, leading the same industry, accounting for 11.5% of its total revenue. Semir has an excellent advantage and is expected to benefit from the O2O trend, because the company: 1) it has stepped into e-commerce in the early stage; 2) developing its own online brand, anti blocking network / entity sales erosion effect; and 3) acquiring ISE equity of Korean electricity supplier to expand the cross-border electricity supplier market.