The Trend Of Continued Reduction In Cotton Production In 2016 Is Irreversible.

Affected by the continuous decline of domestic cotton yield in recent two years, cotton growers in the mainland and Xinjiang have gradually changed their traditional planting structure.

For example, Xinjiang has gradually reduced cotton production and encouraged cotton farmers to expand their grain, vegetables, medicinal materials and fruit industry.

As a large cotton producing area, Hami's Daquan Bay Township has a per capita annual income of over 10 thousand yuan, but as the market changes, local cotton farmers are looking at Chinese herbal medicines.

2016 cotton in China

This is the trend of the times. However, due to the limited reduction and the impact of dumping and storage factors, it is expected that the reduction will not play a big role in boosting market prices.

It is understood that, due to the market

Price and quality reasons, in 2015, the domestic cotton planting income decreased year by year, resulting in cotton farmers' enthusiasm to reduce cotton planting, cotton farmers will have a stronger willingness to change, and in 2016, the cotton will continue to reduce production.

According to the survey of cotton production cost and income of Xinjiang autonomous region development and Reform Commission in 2015, cotton production in Xinjiang showed a decline in production per mu, a slight increase in production costs, a decline in purchasing prices and a decline in yields.

In 2015, the average yield of cotton in Xinjiang was 108.21 kg, down 14.13 kg compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 11.55%, and the average cost of cotton per mu was 2119.55 yuan, an increase of 8.33 yuan compared with that of the previous year, an increase of 0.39%. The average output value of cotton was 1468.92 yuan, a decrease of 382.26 yuan compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 20.65%, and net profit per mu decreased by 357.73 yuan (including subsidized income).

It was temporarily calculated at 444.39 yuan per mu in 2014, a decrease of 150.39%.

The mainland cotton is less than Xinjiang cotton in terms of output, quality, price and subsidy, so the income of cotton growers in the mainland is much lower than that in Xinjiang (in 2014, the amount of cotton subsidy granted by mainland cotton farmers was less than half of that of Xinjiang cotton growers).

According to the national cotton market monitoring system in late November 2015, the national cotton planting intentions showed that in 2016, the national cotton planting area reached 47 million 500 thousand mu, a decrease of 3 million 688 thousand mu compared with that of the previous year, with a drop of 7.2%.

According to its output survey, in 2015, the cotton planting area in China was 51 million 188 thousand mu, and its output was expected to be 5 million 216 thousand tons.

According to this calculation, the cotton output in 2016 will probably be around 4 million 800 thousand tons.