Half Or Half Of The Economy Will Cut Interest Rates Or Reduce Or Postpone Interest Rates.

Last week's meeting of the Fed's January meeting showed that the collapse of commodities and the dramatic movements in financial markets triggered concern among Fed officials that the uncertainty in the economy is increasing. But the FOMC statement in January was surprising because officials decided not to evaluate the "risk balance" in the economy in the official statement. The Fed did not say that it was still struggling to raise interest rates. After 30 hours of negotiations, the EU finally made concessions last Friday, showing the desire to "retain" Britain. The "retention agreement" made concessions to some of Cameron's key requests, including a longest 4 years. Emergency braking "Britain is allowed to restrict the work benefits of EU immigrants," he said. Britain will hold a referendum in June 23rd to decide whether to stay or not. At present, the polls show that the number of people who support the stand is hard to distinguish.

China's economy still has great potential: we have such a high savings rate, such a big room for maneuver, once the economy really appears to slip out of the reasonable range, we will make a decisive decision when we sell. Eight ministries and commissions such as the Central Bank jointly issued the "opinions on financial support for industrial steady growth, structural adjustment and increasing efficiency", and put forward a series of specific financial policies and measures to support industrial transformation and upgrading from six aspects. Since February, regulators have issued three substantive real estate stimulus policies in succession: in February 4th, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the notice on preferential tax policies for public rental housing. In February 17th, the central bank, the Ministry of housing and the Ministry of Finance issued the "savings accounts of the employees' housing provident fund". interest rate Notice of formation mechanism; in February 19th, the Ministry of finance, the State Administration of Taxation and the Ministry of housing and construction jointly issued a document to lower the tax rate of individual purchase of housing, especially focusing on the adjustment of individual housing under 90 square meters. The decline in imports has widened and the economy has been mixed.

The year-on-year decline in imports continued to expand in January, taking into account the low base number of the same period last year and worsening imports. The domestic economy is facing a transformation, and demand has not improved in the short term. In February, the expansion of electricity consumption declined, indicating that industrial growth in 1-2 months is still still in the doldrums, and sales of real estate and automobiles continue to weaken. The only bright spot is consumption. The Spring Festival Golden Week retail sales grew by 11.2% over the same period last year, and rebounded after 4 consecutive years of decline. Among them, the emerging consumption such as cross border tourism and movies was even more popular, and the growth rate of cross-border tourism remained above 10%, and the box office grew by 68% over the same period last year.

Inflation is picking up and cautious about stagflation risk. In January, CPI rose slightly to 1.8%. If CPI weight adjustment is taken into account and CPI should be 2.1% under the old weight, inflation has obviously rebounded. Among them, the rise in food prices was the main reason, and non food prices also rose. During the Spring Festival in February, the price of food was still rising. It predicted a slight increase of CPI to 1.9% in February. In January, PPI narrowed to -5.3% last year, mainly due to lower base last year, and some industrial prices have improved. However, the weak pattern of industrial economy has not changed, and the factory price of black, oil, nonferrous metals and chemical industry has dropped considerably compared with the same period. In February, domestic coal and steel prices rebounded, and predicted that the PPI decline in February would continue to shrink to -4.8%. The sharp increase in imports in January reflects that domestic demand is still in the doldrums, and inflation is rising significantly. The risk of stagflation can not be ignored in the context of the sharp overshooting of money.

　　 Money and credit Overgrowth and easing continue to postpone. In January, the amount of new credit reached 2 trillion and 500 billion, which exceeded the peak of the same period in January, 09 in January, and 3 trillion and 420 billion in the financial sector. In the form of off balance sheet and off balance sheet financing, the M2 growth rate rebounded to 14% and exceeded 12%. Social credit in January is far ahead of market expectations, or indicates that demand stimulus is reappearing. In the short term, it is a stimulant for the weak market, but it will also test the determination of supply side reform. A sharp contrast with the overgrowth of foreign currencies is that the sharp contraction of foreign trade indicates that the economy is still in the doldrums, reflecting the obvious overshoot of money and accumulating the risk of long-term depreciation and stagflation. Zhou Xiaochuan emphasized the global dependence on monetary policy since the financial crisis in the economic 50 person forum. Yi Gang said that monetary policy should be overly relaxed, otherwise it would easily cause pressure on exchange rate depreciation, so the interest rate reduction would be reduced or postponed.