Policy Topic: The Government Must Not Be As Smart As The Market.

Today, many people are reading or interpreting the 2016 government work report.

Indeed, the government work report is a retrospective summary of the previous year and a task and objective for this year.

Therefore, people from all walks of life will be very concerned about the contents of the report. Any topic that interests and relates to them will be digested word by word.

Indeed, the writing cost of our government work report should be the highest in the world. Therefore, the more than 19000 word is not exaggerated with the word "one thousand words". The former Office of the State Council should summarize the annual plans and plans of the ministries and commissions and the provinces and municipalities of the whole country before writing the draft, and then form a two draft, which will be discussed by the Party Central Committee, the NPC, the CPPCC, the democratic parties and experts from all walks of life. Then, the General Assembly will be revised and finalized and finally finalized by the prime minister.

Therefore, the formation of the government work report does give full play to democracy, the number of people involved, and the wide scope of its coverage, which is rare in the world.

Therefore, in name, it is a report on the work of the government, in fact, it is more like a common programme of all sectors and sectors of the society.

Since the Communist Party of China established the socialist market economy system in the third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee in 1993, the market level of China's economy is becoming higher and higher, and in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the "market in the allocation of resources" is further clarified, indicating that the role of "market mechanism" is greater than that of the government.

That is to say, the government should follow the market to play its due role.

In fact, there are also many cases in the government work report that conform to public opinion and market.

As a financial and securities industry, we have noticed that the registration system is not mentioned in the report.

At the end of last year, I decided that "the real registration system has not yet arrived" because the real registration system should be built on the basis of open market, perfect supervision system and independent exchange.

However, in last year's work report, registration system was proposed.

This shows that the development of the market has

To launch a reform measure, we must comply with relevant conditions, otherwise we will be talking about armchair.

Therefore, the goals put forward in this work report, such as GDP growth rate of 6.5%-7% and M2 growth rate of 13%, have also complied with the changing trend and public opinion of the market.

Of course, there are also low targets, such as the deficit rate of 3%, while last year's target is 2.3%, but the actual implementation is 3.48%, so this year 3% estimates can not be carried out, and still exceed.

Because the current leverage ratio is too high and the social credit risk is increasing, it is necessary to finance and maintain stability.

Therefore, before launching an economic policy, the government will generally seek advice from all sides.

This is also a way to respect the market and listen to the market.

But the question is, do the consultants chosen by the government really represent the market and reflect the wisdom of the market? Can they reflect the voice of the people? Not necessarily.

On the eve of the two sessions, the people's daily issued a rare voice and asked the representatives of the two sessions to "deliberate and criticize the report on the work of the government" instead of "learning to understand".

"Your incompetence means the absence of the people." your aphasia means the silence of the people.

Thus, the NPC and CPPCC representatives may not be competent, not necessarily experts, not necessarily representative.

Although I was lucky enough to be employed as an "expert" by the government departments, I felt that my professional standards were limited.

Why can't we invite some grassroots or trader as an expert? Every policy has the space of "institutional arbitrage" and "regulatory arbitrage", so that rent seekers and arbitrages can earn a full pot.

For example, the side effect of financial innovation is the legalization of illegal fund-raising, plus the leverage in the field, and the down payment of real estate leads to a new round of speculation.

In fact, the cost of policy mistakes is not exaggerated by trillions.

This year's goal is to "go to capacity, leverage, inventory, supplement and reduce costs", but it seems that there is little reflection on how excessive inventory, excess capacity and excessive leverage are formed. In fact, not all problems should be attributed to four trillion of the heads of two years.

As long as we do not fear the market and are too confident, the problem of excess capacity and over leveraging is the problem of system and mechanism, which will exist for a long time.

In fact, it is not necessary to hire such grass-roots groups as the real estate group, the daily limit board and the death squads to be experts.

But we must fear the market, so that we can respect the market and let the market play a decisive role.

In addition, we must respect logic. It is only a good wish to be more quick and better. It is helpful to improve the quality of policy in the future by reassessing all previous policies.

The price is heavy: too many goals violate logic.

I remember that in the age of planned economy, we are familiar with the slogan "building socialism quickly and economically", but the actual implementation results are slow and slow, neither good nor bad.

But after the reform and opening up, there is not so many goals, and the growth rate of GDP has risen sharply.

Meng Zi said that bears and fish fingers must not be concurrently.

Mundell also said that only two options could be chosen between free floating of exchange rate, free capital flow and independent monetary policy, and three goals must not be achieved at the same time.

Nowadays, government departments often propose five goals, which should be implemented at the same time, which is obviously very difficult.

Moreover, some of the five goals are conflicting.

Recently, Lu Lei, director of the central bank's Research Bureau, said: "China's macro-control framework is weak." he asked, for example, how to maintain macroeconomic stability and financial stability in the process of financial reform, which is a matter of great concern to China's fiscal and monetary authorities.

Why do we need financial reform? It is just the beginning of 13th Five-Year. The central government has already made decisions and plans. You can't do it, and you must implement it effectively. But in the process of implementation, we must maintain market stability, price stability, and money supply related variables to maintain a reasonable balance, and of course, including exchange rate.

At present, the result of the reform seems to be heading for regulation. The reason is very simple, because there are too many objectives, and there may be conflicts between A goals and B goals.

Looking back on the government work report over the years, we will find that the task of growth is often easy to accomplish, but the task of reform is often difficult to achieve.

In contrast, some developed market economies have a relatively low goal setting.

The difference between China and China is that they do not set GDP growth targets, and the general goal is to set the target of unemployment rate.

Because GDP is just the result, the unemployment rate is related to the residents' living security.

Deliberately pulling up GDP will definitely lead to waste of resources.