Steady Foreign Trade Grab Or Drop In "One Belt And One Road" Still Need A Burst Of Struggle.

In February, import and export data remained unchanged for 12 consecutive months.

Experts said that at least for the first half of this year, the foreign trade situation is not optimistic. The next step is to stabilize the foreign trade.

The export decline in February was expanded to 20.6%.

"This situation has been comparable to the end of the 2008 round of the current financial crisis, a period of early 2009."

Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research department of the Ministry of Commerce, said.

China's exports had a sharp decline in 2009.

In the first 6 months of the year, exports fell by nearly 20% in January and March, compared with 20% in the rest of the year.

"The advantages of traditional trade have been lost too fast, and the formation of new advantages is relatively slow.

In the context of double extrusion from industrial RE development in developed countries and industrial development in the developing world,

No change has resulted in the accelerated decline of foreign trade. "

Bai Ming pointed out.

In this regard, Shen Wan Hongyuan research report pointed out that the decline in import growth narrowed, commodity prices stabilize is the main reason.

"Commodity prices have stabilized, and the import price index has risen sharply, which has had a big positive impact on the narrowing of the import volume, which is the main reason for the improvement of imports."

Also, it should be noted that the trade surplus has shrunk considerably in February.

In February, the trade surplus was 209 billion 500 million yuan, narrowing 43.3%.

In the context of Bai Ming's view, China's foreign exchange reserve has declined for four consecutive months. The decrease in surplus will increase the pressure on foreign exchange reserves, which deserves attention.

The information disclosed in this year's "government work report" or "13th Five-Year plan" is not hard to find. The next step is to firmly grasp foreign trade in the construction of "one belt and one road".

It is very likely that "one belt and one road" is a breakthrough point.

In the two and a half years of "one belt and one road", the early stage is to form a consensus. The next step will be docking, that is, the large-scale landing of the project, and the effect will take some time to release.

"In addition, such as FTA, overseas

The construction of such parks will also help the relative concentration and optimal allocation of resources.

Bai Ming pointed out.

Bai Ming said that at least in the first half of the year there is no optimistic expectation, and there may be a reduction or a rebound in the second half.

Shen Wan Hongyuan's view is more pessimistic, "the first two months of the data did not show signs of stabilization, suggesting that the overall situation in 2016 is probably not optimistic."

Data show that in February, the import and export of China's customs supervision only decreased by 3%, which contrasted with the general decline of other foreign trade data.

"This shows that under these circumstances, these parks reflect the optimal allocation of resources.

Foreign trade is not only a problem of selling goods, but also can gather industries through the park, making foreign trade more closely related to industry and forming the competitiveness of foreign trade.

Bai Ming said.