Is It The Only Way To Delay Registration?

Can registration delay really save A shares? Can you really welcome the slow bull market?

This year's report on the government's work of the two sessions has not mentioned the registration system reform. In the 13th Five-Year plan, it also called "creating conditions", which was widely interpreted by many financial people as "registration system reform will be postponed indefinitely". What's more, the "A shares" will be launched.

Originally, as long as the registration system reform accelerated (investor class action system, normalization supervision and strengthening the delisting system followed up), the A share bubble (GEM) will be cleared as soon as possible. Under the continuous downward trend of market interest rates, with the bottom of the L of the real economy, the A stock market is expected to get out of the V structural rebound in six months, and the long-term bull market may also follow.

Should the registration system be delayed?

Most of the market participants agree with the direction of registration reform. The main difference is that the registration system should be delayed. There are many reasons for this part. What is the short growth period of A shares, the defects of the A share system, the instability of the market, the immature investors, and so on.

These reasons seem polite and seem to be considered for investors.

However, the essence of the A shares has not been calculated for a long time. The growth of the Holland stock market has not been reached for 30 years. Its growth period is really not as good as that of the stock market that has existed for more than 200 years, but it is not as good as that of the world's earliest public stock issuing stock in nearly 400 years. However, it should not be long because the growth period is short. The fact should be accelerated growth. We should know that now is the era of accelerating technological innovation. If we deduce from this logic and become a late civilized country, should we still stay in the farming and exploring? Do we still use steam trains after Yu Chaoqian's high-speed railway? Should we not have mobile intelligence and continue to spread the pigeons?

Institutional innovation is also the same.

The growth period of A shares for more than 20 years is not short. The evolution of the system is different from the growth cycle of the physiologic person. It can be used in imitation and reference to achieve institutional integration and institutional innovation. For more than 20 years, the stock market of a market based resource allocation and the policy market, all the regulatory departments and even more upper level decision-makers should be felt blush.

Besides, if the stock market germinated at the end of the Qing Dynasty and the beginning of the Republic of China, the growth period of China's stock market is not less than 30 years, but it has been over 100 years.

There are also reasons such as the A share system is flawed, the market is unstable, and investors are immature.

The A share system is flawed, but the biggest flaw is precisely the "no registration system". The supply and demand relationship between stock and capital is not marketization. Instead, it is an administrative system. Instead, it uses the logic of planned economy, artificially creates stock price bubbles and boosts investor sentiment.

Market instability? When did the A share market stabilize? What is market stability? Market stability is not a man-made stability, but the emotional stability formed by market self regulation. The reason why the A share market has never been stable in the past 30 years is rooted in the general speculative mentality generated by the policy market and the financing market. The real market stability comes from this speculative mentality, and how can investors mature?

Is it a good thing to delay registration?

Any anti market measures in the market are mostly in the name of safeguarding investors' interests.

This is the case with the delayed registration system. The IPO that has been suspended for a long time is just like this.

However, in fact, we find that under many protective measures, the interests of A share investors have not been effectively protected for many years. The A share market has lost more than 90% of its investors in the past 20 years, creating the world's leading capital market.

The principle of resource allocation, fair game rules and normalization of market supervision should be ensured by the regulatory authorities and even the policy-making level, and also the direction for deepening the reform of A shares.

The protection of investors under the premise is not a hooligan in the factual aspect.

Indeed, under the current market sentiment, hasty implementation of the registration system is likely to cause further decline in the market.

However, as long as we do a good job of normalization supervision, as long as we strengthen the delisting system, as long as China's economy does not have systemic risks, the market decline is limited. After all, in the past few months, the market has largely digested the "negative" of registration reform.

The downward effect of the registration system on the market will definitely cause further damage to the investors who have been heavily involved in A shares before the stock market crash last year. But for these investors, since their losses have exceeded 60%, then what is the difference between the 10% loss and even 20% loss?

The delay in registration reform is unlikely to protect investors' interests, because the logic of this kind of market support can reduce the losses of investors who are heavily occupied. However, the premise is that more investors must join the market.

To protect the interests of a small number of people (even the national team) at the expense of more people's interests, is this to protect investors?

Delaying registration system is not a good thing. Looking back on the history of A shares, as long as the market reform is not deepened, any man-made bull market or man-made bull market will eventually be hurt by small investors. Compared to bear markets, such bull market will lead to more investors being hurt and more seriously injured.

After the delayed registration reform, I am extremely optimistic about the trend of A shares in the future.

It is possible for stocks to maintain stability in the short term. However, how long will this artificial policy support the market, and how long will the credibility of the regulatory departments and even the policy-making level remain? Yes, the gem will probably be popular again. However, such a pursuit will not only benefit investors in the end, but most investors will only become a leek again. We must know that even though the current valuation ratio (GEM refers to the P / E ratio / Shanghai Composite Index), the current 3:1 is narrower than the previous 4:1, but its valuation is far less than that. It is still a wonderful landscape in the world's major capital markets. Yes, A.

I hope that the government work report does not mention the registration system reform, does not mean that "registration system reform has been delayed", the abolition of the government can not be attributed to personnel changes.

Otherwise, I will be pessimistic about the future trend of the A share market. It is likely to usher in another long bear market after a short "short".