Guo Shiliang Talks About How To Save A Bear Market

Generally speaking, when the market index effectively falls below the supporting position of the annual line, it often indicates that the market has officially entered the bear market.

Perhaps, for some investors, they will be more keen to judge the bull and bear market with half a line.

In view of the former, if the annual line is used as a criterion, the Chinese stock market has officially established a bear market at the end of last year.

At the same time, with the early impact of the fusing mechanism in early 2016, it has further confirmed the pattern of the bear market.

As for the latter, if the half line is used as a judgement index for ox bear, the bear market will be established in August last year.

However, today, no matter what judgment we adopt, we can not deny the fact that China's stock market has fallen into a bear market.

In the bull market, if bear market thinking is used to speculate in stocks, it is often easy for them to fall into a state of long-term tread. On the contrary, in the bear market, if bull market thinking is used to speculate in stocks, and in the face of a continuous drop in the market, the stock market will remain unchanged.

Whether it is standing in the perspective of management and governance, or analyzing the vital interests of ordinary retail investors, it will be very important to save the A bear market.

However, in the face of the A share market, which has just caught a bear market, what means can it be used to save it from the bear market? For this, I have the following views for reference.

First of all, we should introduce new liquidity funds and increase the scale of long-term capital to increase the proportion of institutional investors.

In this regard, social security funds, pension funds and foreign capital and other long-term funds will undoubtedly guide the market in the future.

Secondly, in recent years, the CIRC stressed in the relevant draft that it intends to further expand the investment scope of venture capital and release the investment space of venture capital.

At the same time, after the Spring Festival this year, the national social security fund has already allocated accounts for a number of domestic managers, amounting to about 10 billion yuan to buy shares in the two tier market.

However, there is still room to be excavated for the venture capital fund with a scale of more than trillions.

Moreover, the accelerated pace of pension market entry is also a trend.

According to the relevant data, the current balance of the pension fund in 2015 was about about 300000000000 yuan, while its accumulated balance reached about 3 trillion and 400 billion.

If the pace of future pension into the market is increasing, it will bring some new liquidity supplement to the stock market to some extent.

However, in essence, because pension funds are related to people's pocketbooks, and equity asset investment is not limited to stocks, the psychological impact of pension market entry is far more than the actual impact.

In addition, the acceleration of foreign capital entry is also an important supplement to enhance the new liquidity of the A share market.

According to statistics, QFII has opened new accounts for 49 consecutive months, and the total amount of approved investment has exceeded $80 billion.

From a long-term perspective, the pace of foreign capital entering the market is expected to accelerate further.

Bring more new liquidity supplements.

It should be noted that because such funds are basically long-term investment funds, their share in the A share market is enhanced, which is conducive to enhancing the overall share of institutional investors in the A share market, and is conducive to the smooth operation of the stock market in the medium and long term.

However, standing in the current market environment, the stock market has been difficult to complete a round of "deleveraging" and "de bubble" process, the current market as a whole.

It has been well reduced.

In this regard, the possibility of further loosening the two financial institutions or reforming the trading system is not great.

The author believes that for the A share market, it is still inseparable from a feature, namely, "become a capital, lose money."

However, when the stock market completes the process of "turning the bear to the bear", it means that the stock market is basically driven by stock capital.

As for social security funds, pension funds and even

The acceleration of market entry may require a relatively lengthy process, and the current market expectations do not essentially change the characteristics of the existing market driven by stock capital.

In fact, if we want to save the A share market from bear market, we can also improve the utilization efficiency of stock funds, or enhance the investment confidence of stock market with the help of the reform of market trading system.

Among them, moderate modification of the market trading system, such as the pilot part of the stock T+0 trading system, to alleviate the pressure of market timing trading system asymmetry.

At the same time, we can appropriately relax the two financial businesses, or moderately raise the two conversion rate, which will bring more or less stimulus to the stock market.