China Remains An Important Part Of Global Trade

Preliminary customs statistics show that between 1 and February this year, the total import and export volume of the country was 3 trillion and 310 billion yuan, down 12.6% from the same period last year. Foreign trade showed many characteristics such as "a big drop in exports", "narrowing of imports", "a better situation in high-tech products", and "a rise in commodity prices and a fall in prices".

In response to concerns at home and abroad about China's foreign trade situation, Gao Hucheng, Minister of Commerce, pointed out at the China Development Summit recently that China has 1 billion 300 million domestic population, over 30 trillion yuan of domestic consumption market, more than 3 trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves, and 8000 GDP per capita.

He said that with the new round of opening up to the outside world, China will not only bring new opportunities to the world, but also change its outlook further.

In Chinese, there is a very interesting idiom called "looking at the truth".

The main idea is that if a man looks at the sky from a bamboo tube and uses the ladle to measure the sea water, his understanding of the nature of things will be very narrow and one-sided.

In the same way, if it is "qualitative" for China's foreign trade and even China's economy only according to the decline of foreign trade in the first 2 months of this year, it is obviously "a glimpse of the matter".

Not long ago, Shen Danyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, analyzed China's current situation.

The situation indicated that from the recent survey, enterprises generally reflected that the foreign trade situation in 2016 was indeed more complex and grim than in 2015.

But we should also see that the International Monetary Fund, the world bank and other authoritative bodies have generally lowered the expected growth rate of global economic growth in 2016 to the lowest level in 6 years, and the Baltic Dry Index also fell to the lowest level in history.

Shen Danyang said that in the same period of 2015, the base was higher, and the influence of Spring Festival factors was superimposed. The data in the first 2 months of this year had many factors that could not be compared, and could not fully reflect the trend of foreign trade in the whole year.

He disclosed that the relevant departments expected that after March, the decline of China's foreign trade gradually narrowed, and to a stable direction.

Douglas Libor, a senior trading economist at HSBC, thinks that global trade growth in 2016 is facing a risk of slowing to a single digit level. However, behind the weakness of international trade, there is a huge market potential. Consumption growth is also conducive to stimulating investment and promoting trade growth.

"

Vigorously promote the capacity of excess capacity industries to take measures to further optimize the allocation of resources, so that valuable resources into higher productivity industries.

At the same time, the adjustment of the economic structure is conducive to the growth of consumption, and promotes the development of health care, education, information and other industries, which will undoubtedly bring a very positive growth trend.

Libor said.

In fact, if we can observe the foreign trade data more meticulously, it is not difficult to prove that Li Po's judgment.

For example, in the first 2 months of this year, the export of China's high-tech products was 237 billion 300 million yuan, down 11.6% from the same period last year, but the proportion of total exports increased by 3.3 percentage points.

At the same time, the growth rate of state-owned and foreign-funded enterprises has declined, while private enterprises' imports have seen positive growth.

Fu Junwen, a researcher with the Institute of world economics, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with reporters that the pressure faced by China's foreign trade is not only influenced by external demand factors, but also reflects China.

Labor pains in the upgrade process.

Since reform and opening up, China has become the "world factory" by virtue of the price advantage of labor, land, resources and environment. This makes processing trade a big part of China's overall trade, and processing trade is precisely guided by factor price.

Today, on the one hand, China's economy is climbing to the high end of the industrial chain, pursuing higher added value; on the other hand, the rise of China's factor prices relative to other countries has also shifted some of the traditional processing and subcontracting industries abroad.

Fu Junwen analysis.

However, it is not only the law of development but also the initiative of China to "go old and cultivate new".

Gao Hucheng said that during the "13th Five-Year" period, China will accelerate the implementation of the strategy of "better and better" and speed up the pace of building a strong trade nation.

He said that China's trade in goods has ranked first in the world, and the next step is to promote the integration and interaction between trade and investment.

In the future, China will speed up the development of new trade patterns and trade formats, such as cross-border e-commerce, and optimize foreign trade products, markets and regional structure, and turn to high quality and good price, excellent excellence.

Ying Zhuohua, executive vice president of the world bank, believes that the world economy and trade will be rebalanced in the next few years, and there will be more capital to seek investment opportunities in the process to activate business and consumption power.

"Although economic growth has slowed down, China is still the major trading partner of all countries, and will have a very important impact on the trade development of developing economies and developed economies."

She said.

Wu Minzhi, vice president of Alibaba group, predicts that "Internet + foreign trade" will become one of the most important outlets for China's export under the severe trade situation.

In Wu Minzhi's view, while the demand of the international market is changing, the Internet also makes the cost of cross border procurement lower. The "foreign trade" of "big and big progress" is gradually decreasing, and "small single trade" is gradually becoming the mainstream.

"In the period of economic pformation, 3 problems need to be grasped in foreign trade: first, cultivate a number of highly competitive local enterprises as soon as possible, so as to fill the vacuum generated by the loss of processing trade; two, we should strive to control the trend of the rising cost of labor, real estate and government services, so as to enhance the attractiveness of foreign investment. Three, we must create an atmosphere of innovation, enhance the comprehensive quality of labor force, and improve the quality of human capital to keep pace with the rising cost of human labor."

Fu Junwen emphasized.