Influencing Factors And Trend Of China'S Import And Export Trade In 2016

A summary of China's economic situation in 2015

The situation analysis report (annual report) has taken inventory of China's import and export trade and macro-economic operation in 2015, analyzed the main features of the import and export trade structure, and made a scientific prediction on the total value and growth rate of China's import and export trade in 2016.

According to the report, the world economic growth slowed down in 2015 and entered the era of low and medium speed growth.

The economic growth of developed economies is insufficient, the recovery process is slow, and the overall performance of the emerging economies is poor. Although the rate of decline has slowed down, there is no sign of any rebound.

Facing the complicated international situation, China's real economy is weak and its investment has declined overall. The growth rate of import and export trade has dropped further, and there has been a negative growth. Our economy has been under great downward pressure.

At the same time, the report also made a inventory of China's macroeconomic operation and import and export trade in 2015, and analyzed the main features of the import and export trade structure, and found that the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports dropped significantly. However, the structure was further optimized, pformed and upgraded further, and the new driving force was further accumulating. In this regard, the analysis of trade partners, from regional analysis, from the analysis of trade patterns, from the nature of enterprises, from the 5 angles of commodity analysis, carried out a simple analysis.

After in-depth analysis from the above 5 perspectives, the annual report holds that: at present, the world economy will remain in a period of deep adjustment. The recovery prospects of major countries and regions are still uncertain. China's economy is undergoing a period of deepening reform and structural adjustment, and still faces many challenges such as the low price of international commodity prices, overcapacity and the pformation of new and old growth momentum.

Benefiting from the gradual emergence of the policy of steady growth in the country, the continuous promotion of the task of "three go, one drop, one subsidy" and the low base effect of last year, the growth rate of China's imports and exports will be negative. It is estimated that the total value of China's import and export trade in 2016 will be about 25 trillion yuan, up 1.9% over the same period last year.

Of which, 10 trillion yuan was imported, a decrease of 4.4% compared to the same period last year, and exports of 15 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.5% over the same period last year.

It is understood that the annual report is divided into three parts as a whole: the summary of the economic situation in 2015, the main characteristics of the import and export trade in 2015, and the influencing factors and trend of China's import and export trade in 2016.

Summary of economic situation in 2015

In the analysis of the overall economic situation in 2015, the report pointed out that in 2015, the world economy as a whole has entered a slow growth era, the Japanese economy has maintained a slump, and the European economy has slowly recovered.

In the analysis and summary of China's economic situation, the report pointed out that China's economy is facing the possibility of structural readjustment and the growth rate continues to bottom out; and from the analysis of China's region, the growth of foreign trade in the central part of China has been increasing; the trade in the western region has dropped considerably, and the import situation has improved; the eastern region's foreign trade has warmed up, and the decline in exports and imports has narrowed.

From the analysis of China's trade mode: the growth rate of general trade exports is higher than the whole, processing trade appears to double down, and the foreign trade benefit of customs special supervision area has increased slightly.

Part of the contents are as follows:

In the analysis and summary of China's economic situation, the report pointed out that China's economic growth slowed down, but its structure continued to optimize and upgrade.

The specific performance is as follows:

(1) the slowdown in domestic economic growth: in 2015, China's economic growth was 6.9%, for the first time in 25 years, it fell below 7% for the first time, and an increase of 1.6% compared with the three quarter.

(2) low price level: year-on-year consumer prices rose by 1.4% over the previous year.

Among them, the city rose by 1.5%, and the countryside rose by 1.3%.

In terms of classification, food prices rose by 2.3% over the same period last year, while clothing increased by 2.7%, and housing increased by 0.7%.

In food prices, grain prices rose by 2%, and pork prices rose by 9.5%.

(3) industry

Prices are sluggish: producer prices for industrial producers fell by 5.2% over the previous year, down 5.9% in December and 0.6% in the same period.

The purchasing price of industrial producers fell by 6.1% over the previous year, down 6.8% in December and 0.7% in the same period.

It is worth mentioning that in 2015, the scale of social financing increased sharply, which is as follows: at the end of 2015, the scale of social financing scale was 138 trillion and 140 billion yuan, an increase of 12.4% over the same period last year.

The balance of RMB loans granted to the real economy in 2015 for the whole year was 92 trillion and 750 billion yuan, an increase of 13.9% over the previous year, and the balance of foreign currency loans issued to the real economy was 3 trillion and 20 billion yuan, down 13% from the same period last year. The balance of entrusted loans was 10 trillion and 930 billion yuan, an increase of 17.2% over the previous year. The balance of trust loans was 5 trillion and 390 billion yuan, up 0.8% over the same period; the balance of non discounted bank acceptance bills was 5 trillion and 850 billion yuan, down by 14.8% over the same period last year.

{page_break}

Main features of China's import and export trade in 2015

(1) the development of import and export trade has entered a new normal. The export leading index shows that the pressure on future foreign trade exports is still greater.

1. In 2015, China's import and export growth slowed sharply, and the export leading index showed that export pressure was still great.

In 2015, the total value of China's imports and exports was 24 trillion and 580 billion yuan, down 7% from 2014, of which exports were 1 billion 410 million yuan, down 1.8%, imports 10 trillion and 450 billion yuan, 13.2%, trade surplus of 3 trillion and 690 billion yuan, 56.7% expansion.

From the monthly trend, except for the positive growth in February, the rest months were negative growth. In April, May, July, August, September and September, the decline was more than 8%.

2, the volume of import and export freight volume increased slightly, the volume of imports and trade volume were flat, and the volume of export cargo and trade increased.

Reflecting a package of international staple

The CRB index of composite prices continued to decline, refreshing a 14 year low, indicating that demand for commodities continued to slump, leading to a sharp decline in demand for larger carrier vessels. In December, the Baltic dry bulk index (BDI), known as the world bulk shipping barometer, dropped to 471, a record low.

Over the same period, China's import and export freight volume was 39.47 billion tons, an increase of 1.44% over the same period.

3, through the analysis of contribution rate, we found that mechanical appliances parts and so on (84 chapters) and precious metals (71 chapters), knitwear (61 chapters) and so on are the main commodities that drag export growth.

Fossil fuels (the 27 chapter), special unclassified commodities (98 chapters) and ore Sands (26 chapters) are the main commodities that have contributed to the growth of China's imports.

On the export side, through the 98 chapter analysis of the contribution rate of commodities, it is found that in 2015, electrical machinery, electrical equipment and parts (85 chapters) and furniture, bedding, mattress, spring mattress, etc. (94 chapters) are the main commodities that stimulate export growth, and the total contribution rate is 86.7%.

On the contrary, mechanical equipment parts and so on (the 84 chapter) and precious metals (71 chapters), knitwear (61 chapters) and so on are the main commodities that drag export growth, the negative contribution rate is 167.2%, and the total of three leads to the decline of 3.1 percentage points in China's imports.

In terms of imports, precious metals (71 chapters) and electrical machinery, electrical equipment and parts (85 chapters) are the main commodities that increase import trade, and their contribution rate is 25.6%.

Mineral fuels (the 27 chapter), special unclassified commodities (98 chapters), ore, slag and mineral ash (26 chapters) are the main commodities that have contributed to the growth of China's import trade. The total contribution rate of the three is 89.1%, and the total of three imports has led to a 11.8 percentage point decline in China's imports.

Influencing factors and trend of China's import and export trade in 2016

(1) main advantages

1. the release of policy dividends.

The central economic work conference pointed out that, while moderately expanding the aggregate demand, we should focus on strengthening the structural reform of the supply side. This means that the policy of 2016 will still be weighed between "steady growth" and "structural adjustment", with the demand side policy steady growth, creating a stable environment for the supply side's "adjustment structure".

2. the emergence of new growth momentum.

New business models such as cross-border e-commerce, market purchasing trade, and foreign trade comprehensive service enterprises are developing rapidly. With the implementation of relevant supporting policies and measures, the new business model is expected to become a new driving force for the growth of import and export trade.

3., the promotion of regional cooperation.

While vigorously implementing the "one belt and one way" strategy, we will actively promote negotiations on regional comprehensive economic partnership agreements and strive to build a new open economy system.

The construction of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area has become a new target of China's regionalization development. Once the target is reached, its huge market scale, economic growth potential and trade and investment income will far exceed the integration agreement of the enterprise area.

(two) major adverse factors

1. the global economy and trade are still slowing down.

The global economic situation and outlook 2016 released by the UN will reduce global economic growth by 0.4 percentage points in 2016, with an expected growth rate of 2.9%.

In the same period, IMF also lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2016.

As a result, Global trade will continue to be weak. WTO will adjust the global trade growth forecast from 4% to 3.9% in 2016, lower than the average level of 5% in the past 20 years.

2., the international bulk price will still be in the doldrums.

Since mid December 2015, the price of commodities has continued to decline and the market outlook is flat, except that coal is benefited from seasonal demand and the price has been postponed.

3. China's economic and foreign trade situation is under tremendous pressure.

2016 will be a year of continuous economic development in China, and macroeconomic indicators will fall further.

On the one hand, the stock adjustment has not been carried out substantially, and the excess capacity has not been completely withdrawn. This not only constrains the reconfiguration of labor, land, capital and other factors, but also distorts the price of the elements, exacerbates deflation in the industrial production area, and restricts the overall profitability of the enterprise sector.

Due to overcapacity, China will still face serious obstacles to import, export excluding cost and frequent international trade frictions. On the other hand, although incremental driving has achieved remarkable results in recent years, the cultivation of new industries, new formats and new power needs a longer cycle, which is difficult to fill the gap formed by traditional strength pformation in the near future.

{page_break}

4. private enterprises are troubled by financing difficulties.

In order to reduce social capital and support the real economy, the people's Bank of China lowered the benchmark interest rate and the 4 deposit reserve ratio 5 times in 2015, but the scale of social financing was reduced by 12963 billion yuan over the same period last year. 2015

Credit market has long been a structural problem, credit imbalance, low interest rate large state-owned enterprises occupy most of the credit resources, and small and micro enterprises, private enterprises, new industries high interest rate is very difficult to obtain credit resources, financing difficulties, financing expensive has been a major factor in the development of enterprises.

In addition, the annual report of the customs information network also judged the trend of China's import and export trade in 2016.

Looking forward to 2016, the world economy will remain in a period of deep adjustment. The recovery prospects of major countries and regions are still uneven. China's economic growth is in the new normal of deepening reform and structural adjustment, and still faces many challenges such as the differentiation and downtrend of international commodity prices, overcapacity and the pformation of new and old growth momentum.

But we will benefit from the gradual growth of the policies of the steady growth policy of the government, the continuous promotion of the task of "three go, one drop, one subsidy" and the low base effect of last year. In 2016, the growth rate of China's import and export is expected to be negative.

Combined with the boxer Jenkins model, the total value of China's import and export trade in 2016 was about 25 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.9% over the same period last year.

Of which, 10 trillion yuan was imported, a decrease of 4.4% compared to the same period last year, and exports of 15 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.5% over the same period last year.