Due To Low Cotton Prices And Grain And Cotton Prices, Global Output Continues To Decline.

2015/16 cotton production in the year of 21 million 820 thousand tons, down 4 million 120 thousand tons compared with the previous year, is mainly constrained by low

The relationship between grain and cotton prices and global production continued to decline, but India continued to maintain the first cotton producing country status of 5 million 835 thousand tons, followed by China.

In addition, China, the United States, Pakistan and India all have different downgrades, down 1 million 350 thousand tons, 735 thousand tons and 784 thousand tons and 588 thousand tons respectively.

Affected by the global economic downturn, global cotton consumption dropped to 23 million 779 thousand tons, a slight decrease compared with the previous year, down 236 thousand tons.

Among them, the largest reduction in China was 218 thousand tons, followed by Pakistan and Brazil, with a reduction of 21.8 and 65 thousand tons respectively.

With the gradual pfer of industries to Southeast Asia, consumption in Vietnam, Bangladesh and other countries increased by 21.8 and 76 thousand tons respectively.

The main change in import and export situation is restricted by China's quota policy. China's import volume has been further reduced by 715 thousand tons, to 1 million 80 thousand tons, while the import volume of Pakistan and Vietnam has increased by 319 thousand tons and 196 thousand tons respectively.

The main reason is that this part of cotton is pformed into Southeast Asia.

Import to China, and then replace domestic cotton consumption.

Global output has dropped sharply, consumption has decreased slightly. The end of the world inventory has decreased by 1 million 921 thousand tons compared with the previous year. Global cotton has been slowly going to stock, but the supply and demand pattern of the whole market has not been substantially improved.

China cancelled since 2014.

Since the purchase and storage policy and the target price have been implemented, cotton prices have gradually returned to the market price, and the cotton planting area has been decreasing. The cotton production in China has decreased by 1 million 350 thousand tons to 5 million 180 thousand tons in the new year. With the replacement of functional fibers, consumption has dropped by 218 thousand tons over the previous year, to 6 million 967 thousand tons, and the import volume has been reduced by 715 thousand tons by quota restriction. At present, there is only 1 million 80 thousand tons, resulting in a reduction of 110 thousand tons in the end inventory, but the inventory consumption ratio remains high, and the domestic supply and demand pattern has slightly improved, but there has been no obvious improvement.

On 18 March, approved by the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission issued the target price level of cotton in Xinjiang in March, which was 18600 yuan per ton, which was slightly higher than market expectations. It has a certain role in boosting the planting area of the city and has limited impact on the mainland.

By the end of March, cotton enterprises in all parts of the country started to operate at an apparent rate of shortage. Due to the expected impact of throwing storage, the cotton enterprises were mostly on the sidelines. The processing plants sold at a reasonable price and were afraid to stock up.

At the CCI meeting in March 27th, Mao Kailin believed that at present, the expected cotton planting will increase in many organizations. Although the final area is not known, it is now only in March that the planting area will have to be more accurately estimated after the sale of cotton seeds.

But in the overall trend, the planting area of the United States and cotton increased.

In addition, as for China's cotton reserves, Ms. Mao Kailin believes that in recent years China's import volume of cotton has been further reduced through the regulation of reserve + quota combination boxing. Now China's cotton imports have gradually dropped to Bangladesh in the world. China's imports of US cotton have decreased a lot. The direct impact of cotton reserves on the US cotton is very small, and the export of US cotton is still expected to be better.

The latest domestic planting intentions show that the cotton planting area in China is reduced by 8.8%, which is 9 million 370 thousand to 51 million 300 thousand mu less than the 60 million 670 thousand mu (2015 cotton planting data) in 2015.

Among them, wandering households accounted for 46.6%, a significant increase of 35 percentage points over the same period last year.

Cotton subsidies have been introduced in all parts of the country, of which cotton subsidies in Shandong area are 150 yuan / mu, Cotton Subsidy in Hebei area is 201 yuan / ton, Cotton Subsidy in Xinjiang is 500-540 yuan / mu, and there is certain support for cotton growers to grow cotton, but the overall cotton planting is still decreasing, but the descending rate in the mainland is obviously stronger than that in Xinjiang. Because of the large cotton planting area in Xinjiang area, it is better to grow cotton than planting other crops.

Now the main contradiction of the market is to throw out the implementation of the policy. Yin Jian, director of the 17 day development and Reform Commission, mentioned that the price of the cotton put into operation and the international linkage were put into operation in the middle and late April; the imported cotton was given priority in the early stage; the normalization of the stock was not released in the future, and the market thought that the impact on the cotton market was generally weak.

Due to the downward drag of the overall economic weakness at home and abroad, the supply and demand pattern of cotton market has not changed. Textile enterprises are buying along with the purchase, keeping low inventory. The market is waiting for the sale of national cotton stores, which seriously inhibits the spot market of lint. Although the target price of the new year has been promulgated and is much higher than the market price, it has not brought obvious influence on the current operation.

In addition, at present, the import port price of imported yarn has been lower than that of domestic yarn, the export kinetic energy has weakened, the internal and external yarn price has been upside down or continued, and with the expected time of cotton storage wheel approaching, it is difficult to predict the quality and quantity of cotton reserves.