There Is No Doubt That The Reserve Cotton Is Coming Out.

There is no doubt that cotton reserves are coming out, but as long as no dust is settled, all analyses and expectations are like castles in the air, which is the most important reason why the industry deeply expects the policy to land.

3 since mid late June, the policy of centralized replenishment and reserve cotton in downstream enterprises has not yet been clearly defined.

There is a "Spring River heating duck prophet", the first to feel warm is some spot enterprises, because the inventory on hand is fast out, or because the procurement of good quality cotton in Xinjiang is becoming more and more difficult, so breeding may not feel that the market is so depressed.

Compared with previous years, it has not yet been published.

The context of the policy is clear.

As early as the March 18th National Cotton Exchange Market hosted the 2016 'CNCE cotton industry development annual meeting, the leaders clearly put forward the principle and goal of storing cotton out of storage.

The industry's most concerned pricing mechanism, the structure of the outgoing library and so on are basically clear. After that, the key link of rumor's re export inspection has been gradually strengthened in the industry.

Everyone, except for more details, is expected to get a clear statement and a psychological conclusion.

It can be seen that policy landing does not mean that market divergence has evaporated, and the trend has become clearer, because the factors that affect the judgement of short and long term may not change fundamentally with the introduction of policies.

To say the least, even if it is clear, most people agree that the instant trading opportunities are over.

So hurry up

Before making a clear decision, it is even more important to start from the predictable information and paction logic and paction details in advance.

Let us first see what factors dominate the market's judgement of the market.

The main factors that I know about the loss of cotton reserves are:

1. Domestic

And immediate pressure to leave the warehouse.

2. The relationship between the reserve cotton output and the international price, the pricing mechanism and possible interaction effects.

3, the sale of Xinjiang's domestic cotton sales has not yet been able to sell pressure, and even the competition between cotton and cotton, will cause prices to fall;

4, if we want to effectively block imported cotton yarn, we must cut down the stock price.

5. Check the premium that may cause various quality problems.

If the package is rechecked, the premium will be larger than the color grade test.

Look at the point of view of multiple heads.

1, the cotton gap existed objectively in that year. If the cotton could not be delayed, it would only make the supply of resources more and more tense.

2, Xinjiang's good quality cotton is not much, especially the good cotton in Xinjiang is becoming more and more difficult to find, and there will be great problems in the hierarchical structure.

3, the textile enterprises' stock tension is objective, and the imported reserve cotton with priority output is relatively good quality. It will become the object of competing purchase and will raise the actual paction price.

4, textile to the traditional peak season, the production situation is good, effective support for procurement;

5. The mismatch between positions and deliveries in September's cotton contract promotes the demand for price return.

There is no logic in any of the above reasons.

However, the author believes that in the face of the correct paction logic, the two different results may result from different details.

Therefore, at this critical moment, attention to detail is often more important than emphasizing paction logic.