The Rise Of Polyester Is Obviously Less Than That Of Stocks.

As the stock of polyester in the end of 2015 was significantly higher than that at the end of 2014, the polyester load was forced to be lowered due to high inventory. The output in the first 2 months was obviously low.

In the first 2 months, due to the pressure of inventory, the rise of polyester was obviously insufficient.

But at the same time, it was activated by the external macro atmosphere and began in March.

Product prices rose rapidly, polyester production and sales increased rapidly, inventory fell rapidly, and the gross profit level increased rapidly.

1, PTA2016 supply and demand or maintain tight balance in addition to Hon BANG 2 million 200 thousand tons capacity on-line, the remaining two sets of devices on the line is very low, so the production level at 31 million 350 thousand tons probability is greater, and for the 3300-3400 demand expectations, supply and demand will maintain a tight balance in 2016, if we consider the device maintenance and failure and other reasons,

Tension may intensify.

But in the short term, due to high inventory, short-term pressure remains.

2, the PTA industry is at the bottom of the industrial cycle, and the capacity of PTA industry will be eliminated in the later stage or gradually. The duration of elimination will depend on the speed of excess and capacity and the increase of downstream demand.

But it is certain that the backward production capacity of polyester industry is phasing out, which will be accompanied by

The boom has been lifted from low to high, followed by a rise in prices and the enlargement of profit margins.

3, the upper reaches of crude oil, naphtha and PX have little change in the short-term pattern. The contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil is difficult to change, but gasoline inventories have declined significantly, and the bottom interval has gradually formed. The difference between naphtha and crude oil is at a historical low level. Late oil demand or price increases, while PX has more maintenance devices in the two quarter, and it will remain strong in April.

4, the speed and height and duration of polyester load increase will be the key factor in the PTA market. The current polyester load to 78.8 (corresponding to PTA balance load 70%) is 2009-2015 years, 7 years, an average of 802013-2015 years and three years with an average of 77.

After the two sets of small devices are opened, the PTA load limit is 77.3. Considering the amount of other fields in the month, the load of polyester balance point should be around 85%.

To sum up, PTA has been able to take action for a long time, but the short-term pressure still exists. At present, it is still in a state of discount. The warehouse receipts still have inflow pressure, but there is still room for arbitrage, but the interval is not large.

In operation, the trend single can be close to the balance point of supply and demand, the load basically reaches the highest, and can be gradually built in the low processing cost, paying attention to the change of polyester demand and the malfunction of the PTA device.

It is recommended that other potential chemical products, such as LL, hedge risks.

Arbitrage investors can pay attention to cross month Arbitrage (based on the judgment of TA's near weak and far strong), sell 5 to buy 9, can enter 80-90 points in price difference, near the target price difference 150, pay attention to the change of warehouse receipt, adjust strategy at any time.