Gu Mingde'S Development Trend In The Late Stage Of Bear Market

People turn a blind eye to the most classical words in textbooks.

Although labor prices continued to rise after more than a month after labor day, they did not last long.

A shocking domestic and foreign stock market crash has caused the overwhelming majority of investors, including myself, to suffer different degrees of calamity.

Few people recommend stocks on the road or at the table.

Most of the stock commentators on TV are empty.

At present, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are trading only 1/10 of the volume in the same period last year.

The Shanghai composite index is 3000 points, compared with 4500 points in the same period last year, the gap is 50%.

Not a few

In particular, private investors left the stock market, and some of them went to serve as new leeks for commodity futures.

This is also the labor day. Is the fundamentals of the stock market worse than last year? This is not the case. From the economic growth, financial and monetary policies, the debt leverage ratio of the whole society, the probability of financial crisis and the stability of the RMB exchange rate, these big frameworks haven't changed much since last year.

The small change is: first, in May last year, the economic growth rate was in a downward path. Gross domestic product (GDP) dropped from 7% to 7%, and the economy was a soft landing or hard landing. It is hard to conclude that the first 5 months of this year, the economic growth rate is stable and no longer going down. The soft landing has become a consensus at home and abroad. The prices of commodities, steel, iron, oil, grain and so on are all showing signs of stabilization.

Second, last summer, the domestic and foreign extremely empty renminbi, offshore long-term

The exchange rate is significantly lower than the domestic RMB exchange rate on the shore. This year, the RMB exchange rate between China and the mainland has been close. The stabilization of RMB has become a consensus at home and abroad. The answer is that the probability of China's financial crisis is falling.

Third, during last May, it was

It is inevitable that the stock market will be released during the year, and the stock market will be issued on a large scale, and the large and super safety line will be bought on the inside and off the market. In May this year, these crises will be basically eliminated.

Fourthly, in the first quarter of last year, the US economy grew strongly, the rate hike was strong, and the global capital flowed to the US. In the first quarter of this year, the US economic growth rate was only 0.5%, while China had stabilized 6.7%, and the global funds were gradually differentiated, and the RMB became stronger and more internationalized.

Fifthly, when the pensions came into the market in May last year, they did not know. In May of this year, the market had clearly started to enter the market.

In short, the latter stage of bull market and the latter stage of the bear market do not lie in the fundamental changes of the economy, but in the difference between the public psychological state.

Only a few of them can overcome and lead the public's mental state and be used in actual combat, so that they can gain superhuman gains in the stock market.