The Profit Growth Rate Of Big Banks Is Getting Lower And Lower.

As of Friday, a total of 10 listed banks disclosed a quarterly report in 2016. The five major banks, including industry, agriculture, China, construction and exchange, have all appeared in addition to China Construction Bank. Their profit growth rates are respectively: ICBC increased by 0.59%, agricultural bank increased by 0.83%, Bank of China increased by 1.71%, and Bank of China increased by 0.51%.

In addition to the profit growth of CITIC Bank was 2.49%, the number of small and medium banks increased by 19.49% in Nanjing bank, 16.11% in Ningbo bank, 8.12% in Ping An Bank and 6.56% in China Merchants Bank.

Increase by 6.15%.

At the same time, in terms of asset quality, the non-performing loan ratio of large banks is still rising, and the provision coverage rate is declining.

Among them, the bad rate of ABC is 2.39%, and the county level is 3.03%, that is, the 100 yuan loan bad loans under the county seat have exceeded 3 yuan, while the provision has dropped from 177% at the end of the year to 177%; the bad rate of ICBC and the Bank of China is lower than that of the Agricultural Bank, 1.66% and 1.43% respectively, but the provision of two lines is lower than that of the regulatory red line 150%.

If strictly abide by

The minimum requirement is the provision coverage rate of 150%. Only one industry bank will raise more than 18 billion yuan provision, and ICBC's profit in the first quarter will be 74 billion 764 million yuan. In this case, ICBC's profit is not a slight increase of 0.59%, but a reduction of 23.6%.

In this respect, small and medium-sized banks are much better than big ones.

For example, the bad rate of Nanjing bank was only 0.85% (0.83% at the end of last year), while the provision was as high as 447%. The bad rate of Ningbo bank decreased from 0.92% at the end of last year to 0.91%, and the corresponding provision increased from 309% at the end of last year to 328%.

There is no doubt that for banks, asset quality is far more important than profit growth. Once bad debts, tens of billions or billions of profits are said, no more.

Why do small and medium banks with better asset quality grow faster than the big ones? An important reason is that during the first quarter of this year, the credit increased sharply (the first quarter).

Increased by 4 trillion and 610 billion yuan, a record high), small and medium-sized banks relatively better control.

Bank of Nanjing, for example, has a deposit of 630 billion 700 million yuan at the end of the quarter and a loan of only 280 billion 400 million yuan. The loan to deposit ratio has dropped from 50.7% last year to 44.7% at the end of this year. In about 280000000000 of the loans, personal loans were about 46000000000. Obviously, most of the loans were mortgage loans. In the same quarter, Nanjing's housing sales situation was very good, while mortgage loans generally had a very low rate of bad loans.

Similarly, the total assets of China Merchants Bank declined by 0.8% in the first quarter, and liabilities (mainly manifested as deposits) fell by 1.2%. It has become the only one in the listed banks that has disclosed a quarterly report. Although interest rates of almost all banks have dropped to a large extent along with the central bank's interest rate cut, the interest income has increased by 2.17%, the non interest income has increased by 28.34%, and the non interest income has accounted for more than 40% of the total revenue.

In the economic downturn, we must learn to lose weight. This is the common sense of any business operator.

Why can't big businesses do that? In my view, besides the big central enterprises in China, they always pursue the scale in the first place, which is related to the system and mechanism.

For example, China Railway Material debt, which failed to pay the principal and interest, has been suspended for a period of time. The net assets of the company are only 6 billion 955 million yuan, and more than 20 banks have even given 101 billion 500 million yuan credit line. At present, 32 billion 800 million yuan has been used, of which the Agricultural Bank's credit line has reached 22 billion 200 million yuan, which has been used for 8 billion 440 million yuan.

Including some state-owned big bankers themselves admit, "credit is high mainly depends on the background of the company's central enterprises".

Just imagine that this kind of central enterprises do not care about the quality of the assets of the trust persons. Such exposure and undisclosed hidden debts do not know much about the big state-owned enterprises.