The Cotton Market In April Is Really Crazy.

April cotton Quotations should be the phrase "the most beautiful April days". The "blowout" of cotton prices has stunned the whole world. The management rushed out and gently poured cold water to put out the fire, but market The "soup" is still boiling. If it is not "drastic", the speculative market is likely to revive. If we do not curb excessive speculation, we will lose the cotton reform achievements in China for many years.

As the saying goes, "spring arrives, idiot busy", whether futures or spot, the cotton market in April is indeed a crazy one, CF1609 contract in a middle line at 12555 price. In Zhengzhou cotton futures prices "blowout" market interpretation of this, gorgeous turn a bend, quietly waiting for the May national dumping.

In fact, I always agree with capital to do moderate speculation. Speculator speculate is a neutral word. It also contains the meaning of "speculation, inference and risk taking". As long as there is no insider trading and market manipulation, as long as a reasonable, lawful and sensitive trader once finds a market opportunity and others react too slowly, this opportunity can be grasped and it will be profitable. Why not? It is mainly speculative trading that cannot be overdone and cannot be normalized.

Who called you market regulation is bad, who let you repeatedly postponed releasing details of throwing storage, who asked your policy to go back and forth again and again? In April, this wave of cotton market, many investment companies' traders studied and tracked for many years, and finally waited for a chance to sell, and everyone would do well in it. To blame, they gave these speculators "many bricks".

In fact, many times the industry customer pairs Quotation The basic judgment is right. The original information issued on the policy side was thrown in March, so those industries that really waited for the state to throw their reserves in March put in a large number of funds to protect the normal production and trade, but on the policy side they made a big turn that the industrial funds could not understand. They repeatedly delayed the announcement of the dumping and storage announcement. They were caught up by opportunistic funds and jumped up speculation. So the enterprises' hedging plates became deeper and deeper, and the funds kept accumulating lots accumulated a large number of positions, which aroused the interest of off site funds.

In the past, a small number of hedging plates were "mahjong", and the capital geese were not interested, and now the huge positions have made the market a "mahjong". Huge industrial capital positions have attracted capital sharks. Futures market is very keen on casino, not afraid of winning money, afraid you do not come, not afraid you lose money, afraid you cut the warehouse away. In the face of this opportunity of "more money and more fooling", how can traders let go of the "red packets" market? But speculation should not be too excessive. Otherwise, a few explosion incidents in history are the result of speculation too confident and unreasonable. I would suggest that we look at the movie thebigshort. The boss gave the "carrot", but don't forget that there is a stick in the boss.

Looking back at the market in April, on the daily chart and on the weekly chart, the short alignment of 5M-10M-30M's EMA system has not yet formed. Although the 5 antenna opens downward in the short term, the "dead crossing" has not yet formed effectively. The soup of the market is still boiling, but the management has poured a basin of cold water, but the firewood at the bottom of the pot is still burning. Take a closer look. Some of the bulls are still lurking. Some of the funds are not reconciled, and they are likely to make waves again.

Xiaobian believes that the market situation in May will not be too staggering. The long majority of speculation must be a bit of a face to the management. After all, it is in China. The word "speculation" is still derogatory in two words. In May, Xiaobian could not think of variables and hype themes, such as throwing away stores, failing to meet the Canton Fair, reducing the sowing area, and so on, and the old subjects such as traditional weather anomalies were also hyped up without any novelty.

As for June, I don't know. Xiaobian will not speculate on the long term market, but for our yarn industry, June is the traditional off-season. There is a common saying in Cantonese: "five poor, six anxious, seven turning over". I hope cotton will be returned to fundamentals after being fired.