China'S Stock Market Analysts Are Too Bad To Deviate Too Much From Imagination.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which has lost 1/3 of its market value since the end of April 2015, has plummeted after the biggest rebound, shocked the global market, because it shows how bad the analysts who are engaged in Chinese stock market analysis are.

Compared with other stock market analysts in the world's top 20 stock markets, Chinese analysts' forecasts are quite out of line.

According to the statistics compiled by Bloomberg using the weighted calculation method to convert the company consensus price target into the prediction index reflecting the collective wisdom of the analysts, if their prediction is correct, the Shanghai composite index should be 43% higher than the 2938 point of last week.

The Shanghai composite index is based on the target price of 2000 stocks.

The worst option in Shanghai's 25 largest companies is CITIC Securities (600030), which is 54% lower than the target price of about 36 yuan a year ago when it lost half of its value.

Zheng Chunming, an analyst with Qunyi securities in Shanghai, said: "capital market is hard to predict."

He had bought a rating on CITIC Securities last year, and the target price is much higher than the current level.

What makes the problem even more difficult is the worst performance of the Shanghai stock index in the past two months. One month, it was exacerbated by the fact that Chinese regulators forced the implementation of the policy of emergency discontinuation at the beginning of this year.

"It's hard to predict from the collapse of last year to the selling of the fusing mechanism in January," Zheng said. "In July,

It is not unusual for analysts to predict that the deviation is too big when stocks are hit hard.

At the end of 2013, on the eve of the loss caused by the Greek credit crisis, we studied the country.

Analysts predicted that the price target in one year would be the most inaccurate forecast in the developed world, with a margin of 50%.

In the 2008 financial crisis, analysts in the 25 largest markets deviated from the target average by more than 120%.

According to the article, at least, analysts who studied Shanghai composite index were right in predicting the direction of last year.

Together, they forecast a 5.3% decline.

Job forecasters who offer American trading shares proposals for mainland customers are more inaccurate.

A year ago, they predicted Bloomberg Sino-US.

It will rise by 11%, but the result is 9.7%.

As mainland speculators and novice investors poured into the stock market at an unprecedented rate in the hot market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 150% in the year, reaching its peak in June 12, 2015, and the Shanghai stock index began to issue an index forecast.

In the same period, analysts who engaged in the Shanghai Stock Index skyrocketing stock doubled their target price.

The article said that as the government expects to continue to implement stimulus measures, it will become a major commodity.

When the policy suddenly changed and the economic growth slowed down, market sentiment worsened and triggered a sell-off. China's stock market evaporated 5 trillion dollars.

Michael Wang, a London hedge fund strategist who invested in Chinese stocks, said: "stock analysts have been doing poorly in capturing macro inflection points and forecasting exchange rate measures.

At the moment, investors do not believe that China's revenue forecast from the bottom is still too high and needs to be lowered again, just like in previous years.

Although China's economy shows signs of stabilization, part of its improvement is stimulated by borrowing.

New credit in the first three months of this year has exceeded 1 trillion dollars in the first quarter, and GDP has increased by 6.7%, but it is still the lowest growth rate in 7 years.

Analysts say the analysts are optimistic.

The current estimate is that the Shanghai Composite Index will rise 13% in the next 12 months.

For Chinese Listed Companies in the US, they expect to increase by 21%.

Paul Christopher, chief international investment strategist at Wells Fargo consulting, said that the type of Shanghai stock index has made it more difficult to predict Chinese stock prices than predicting other stock markets in the world.

He said in an interview in New York: "China's largest company is essentially owned by the government, and what the government can order them to do, for example, no insider selling.

They did this for some time last year.

The article said that Chinese officials took unprecedented measures to rescue the market, including the 6 rate cut since the end of 2014, the suspension of listing and the prohibition of large investors from selling stocks.