Participation In Reserve Cotton Auction Is The Only Way To Replenish High Quality Cotton.

The delivery of cotton reserves has already started.

The supply gap is about 1 million 500 thousand tons. In the middle of last 4 months, with the sharp rise of ICE, zhengmian and electronic matching, the progress of spot sales of cotton was greatly promoted. By the end of April, some cotton enterprises and traders in Xinjiang had already "cleared up" to achieve credit "double knot zero".

Taking into account the need for cotton entry from auction to 5-7 days, part of medium and small cotton

Replenishment is still being carried out step by step.

High grade and high quality cotton gaps have been amplified in market rumors.

The author believes that in 2016, except for the 1% quotas, cotton import quotas would be added to other forms of quotas, which are very small. (if cotton prices fluctuate a great deal, they do not exclude the possibility of issuing quasi tariff and processing trade quotas). For small and medium-sized cotton mills and operators without quotas, the reserve cotton prices and quality advantages are obvious, and participation in reserve cotton auction will become the only way to replenish high-quality cotton.

First, from the formula of reserve cotton liner's bottom price, domestic and foreign

The intention of linking up is obvious.

According to the current index, the 3128 level reserve cotton is equivalent to 12300-12400 yuan / ton gross weight, the auction price is lower than the real estate cotton 3128 market paction price; in late April, C/ASM and EMOTSM quotations are 75.50 cents / pound, 74.20 cents / pound, 1% customs customs clearance RMB quoted price 12300-12600 yuan / ton, and the price of real estate cotton is infinitely close.

Two, the color grading of cotton reserve is very tempting, but the requirements of fracture strength, horse value, fiber and evenness are all "one can not be less".

The cotton mill is still very attractive, and some small spinning mills in Henan and Hebei reckon that the cotton spinning with 11500 yuan / ton of cotton will have a net profit of at least 1500 yuan / ton; however, the cotton spinning mills with more than 1100-1200 yuan of yarn and combed yarn are cautious. On the one hand, the reduction of cotton reserves is too large to meet the requirements of spinning high count yarn and combed yarn. One or several color grades are the key. On the other hand, apart from 20-30 tons of cotton outside (more than 85% of them are American cotton), the enterprises are worried about the quality of Xinjiang cotton, such as the length of the Xinjiang cotton, the horse value, the three wire, the breaking strength and so on, and the high quality cotton is very fierce in the year of. Some Futures Company and agencies have converted to think that the maximum value of cotton reserves is 1100-1200 yuan / ton, even if the bid price is 200-300 yuan / ton, the price of 11500 yuan / ton cotton is less than that of spinning C40S yarn.

Three. The main purpose of reserve cotton production is to meet the demand and supply of cotton and not to suppress cotton prices.

The annual domestic cotton production in 2015/16 was 560-580 million tons (Statistics Bureau and cotton association data), while the data of USDA and the national cotton market monitoring system were about 5 million 200 thousand tons (some Futures Company and cotton enterprises considered production less than 5 million tons); in March -2016 September 2015, the cumulative import of cotton flowers was 576 thousand tons, excluding the final inventory, the total supply was 5 million 776 thousand tons.

There are 6 months to go from the new cotton market. Even if the 50-60 tons of unused quotas are included, there is still a gap of about 1 million tons (the average monthly consumption is 600 thousand tons, the total annual consumption is 7 million 200 thousand tons). Therefore, the government is considering that 2 million tons of reserve cotton should be able to meet the market demand this year.