Clothing, Textiles, Footwear And Other 7 Categories Of Labor-Intensive Products Exports Increased By 2.2%

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in May 8th, the export volume increased by 4.1% in the month compared with the same month in April, but the cumulative decline was 2.1%, while the import volume dropped 5.7% in the same month and 7.5% in the same month. The surplus in the first 4 months increased by 15%.

Compared with consumption and investment, net exports have little impact on steady growth, but foreign trade data still deserve our attention, especially from the perspective of exchange rate and inflation.

The cumulative negative export growth is dragged down by the slowdown in global economic growth.

In the latest issue of the global economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund lowered the global economic growth rate by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2% in 2016 and lowered the growth rate of international trade by 0.3 percentage points to 3.1%, reflecting the increasing uncertainty this year.

Against this background, the recovery of China's exports is bound to face a complex situation.

But exports also showed some good signs.

In the first 4 months,

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7 categories of labor-intensive products, such as the total export of 855 billion 200 million yuan, an increase of 2.2%, accounting for 20.7% of the total value of exports.

This shows that China has certain competitive advantages in labor-intensive products.

In the past few years, due to the rise in labor costs and the appreciation of the renminbi, these industries have encountered relatively large difficulties and their share in the global market has decreased.

With the end of the RMB appreciation cycle and the slowdown in labor cost growth, the situation of these industries will be improved, and it is expected that the pformation and upgrading and industrial pfer will be carried out more calmly.

In addition, in April, the export volume of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products decreased sharply compared with the previous year, and the export volume of integrated circuits increased even higher, indicating that the recovery of exports could be expected.

Imports have been negative growth for 4 consecutive months, and the decline in April has expanded again. On the one hand, it reflects that the domestic economic growth has not really stabilized and picked up. On the other hand, it is affected by the decline in international commodity prices.

Imports of crude oil, natural gas and iron ore are increasing in volume and decreasing in volume.

The trend of commodity prices will have a significant impact on this year's foreign trade data.

This will first be reflected in the import side. Low commodity prices will keep China's imports in negative growth; if its price rises, it may push China's import growth rate from negative to positive.

In addition, this will also affect the export of our country. If commodity prices keep low, many emerging market economies will be in a predicament. China's exports will probably be low or even negative growth. Conversely, if prices rise, the situation of China's exports will probably improve.

Judging from the price of crude oil, this year reached a low level in January and February this year, followed by a wave of rising prices, but it has not yet exceeded the level of the same period last year.

It can be predicted that crude oil prices will decline year-on-year in the first half of this year, and that the situation may change in the second half of the year, because the base of the second half of last year is relatively low, and it is possible that there will be a year-on-year rise.

The future trend of crude oil price is affected by supply and demand, and demand growth is weak. In terms of supply, it is difficult for OPEC countries to cut production, but non OPEC countries may lose output.

In addition, the price of commodities is also affected by the US dollar trend, and the impact of the US dollar trend is even bigger than that of supply and demand.

The recent rise in commodity prices has much to do with the weakening of the Fed's rate hike and the decline in the US dollar index.

Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in June? In the first quarter, the US economy grew by only 0.5%, and the number of new non-agricultural employment decreased for two consecutive months, which reduced the possibility of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve in June.

But if commodity prices continue to rise, they will push up inflation in the US, and the Fed will feel the urgency of raising interest rates.

Foreign trade has little impact on domestic economic growth, but it may have a significant impact on exchange rate and inflation.

In terms of inflation, China imports large quantities of commodities. If its price rises, it may lead to imported inflation.

In terms of exchange rate, if the export growth is low and the import growth is negative and positive, the trade surplus will decrease, which may trigger the expectation of RMB depreciation.

We should anticipate the relevant situation and establish a corresponding buffer mechanism.