The Pattern Of Competition Between China And The United States Will Be Radically Changed.

In essence, the major civilizations in the world are in a competition to see who can first get out of the current predicament through change.

The winner of this competition will be the leader of world civilization in the coming decades and even this century.

Li Daokui: what can China rely on to surpass the United States? Li Daokui: what can China rely on to surpass the United States?

The real competition between China and the United States is not in the South China Sea, not in the internationalization of RMB, not in TPP, but in the way of institutional change and fundamental solution to domestic problems.

The current chaos in the United States is very complicated: the presidential election is very noisy, and the mass protests on the streets and schools continue to occur.

The basic reason is the impact of globalization over the past thirty years on the American society.

The United States must establish a series of basic and efficient social welfare systems to stabilize frustrated social groups in the process of globalization.

This inevitably requires a group of people who benefit from the globalization process, especially Wall Street, to contribute more taxes.

75% of the federal government's tax revenue comes from personal income tax, but personal income tax is an important source of widening income gap in the United States, rather than a stabilizer for easing social income disparity.

The main source of income of Wall Street chiefs is capital appreciation.

Only 15%.

In contrast, the personal income tax rate of labor is often 25%~30% or even higher, which is clearly the direct cause of widespread discontent among the public.

In an American society advocating a high degree of freedom and independence, there are talented entrepreneurs, such as Bill, Gates and Jobs, on the one hand; on the other hand, they are low income people who live in the street, lose their family care and comfort their society.

This part of the low-income group often does not get formal work, because they have been drinking and taking drugs for a long time, so they can not get over the blood test requirements of most of the employment enterprises.

The government must shoulder the responsibility of appeasing this part of the social vulnerable groups.

The fundamental advantage of the United States lies in the fact that the rule of law is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.

Once again, the election campaign is going on again, and the public protests are widespread. Once the judiciary is involved, the community basically agrees with the court's judgement, which is the cornerstone of the economic and social reform in the United States.

The situation in Europe is almost the opposite of that in the United States. That is excess welfare, which accounts for about 40% of GDP, and half of government spending is for social welfare.

In addition to Germany, the main body of Europe needs large-scale social welfare reform.

The reason why Germany's economy is still in the doldrums of the global economy is still solid. The root cause is the social welfare reform advocated by the left wing Prime Minister Schroder in the past 90 years.

Large scale social pformation generally requires "form left, right or right" or "form right, real left".

Today, the United States needs a president who appears on the far right side (such as Trump). After taking office, he took bold reform of the left side to support vulnerable groups, improve basic social security and ease social contradictions.

The European continent needed the German leftist government to come to power. After coming to power, it promoted the right-wing reform with extensive public opinion. This is the successful political logic of the Schroder administration.

Looking back on China itself, it is also a contradiction. We must face the problem directly.

We must put forward new ideas that are different from the thirty years before and after reform and opening up.

The new train of thought should include at least three aspects.

First, precise regulation of the modern market economy.

Germany is a teacher.

The modern market economy has been widely accepted as the mainstream ideology of China's political and economic thinking, but we must establish a system to control it accurately.

In this regard, the experience of Germany and Singapore is particularly worth learning from.

For example, in the medical system, the initiative of the pharmaceutical industry, doctors and hospitals should be mobilized by the market mechanism, and the market can not be completely replaced. The government must accurately propose a set of policies to provide basic medical benefits.

For example, the real estate market should be based on the market economy, from developers to property management, households, second-hand housing pactions and so on, but the government's regulation must be in place - both to ensure the basic housing needs of low-income families, and to prevent the rise and fall of housing prices.

Second, the concept and system of legal system must take root.

this point

It's a teacher.

In any major social struggle in the United States, the riots broke out from the fact that white people prevented black people from going to school and blacks suffered unreasonable judgments in the local courts. From the occupy Wall Street movement to the presidential campaign between Gore and George W. Bush, as long as they rose to the legal level and had the involvement of the judicial system, the overwhelming majority of the people could accept it.

Nowadays, the legal basis of Chinese society is extremely weak. Public opinion, morality, politics and human feelings are all impeding the operation of the legal system.

This makes the society lose a basic anchor.

The tragedy of the Hongkong society in the past two years is precisely because of the loss of the universal concept of the legal system, and the obvious violation of law and the individual can not be punished.

Third, we must establish a group of ideal, constrained and motivating ruling elites.

Here, Singapore is a teacher.

The ruling elite must have lofty ideals, so that we can establish public trust in society and fundamentally keep it from corruption.

At the same time, the ideal ruling elite must be restrained and encouraged, and their performance must be matched with their personal interests.

It is impossible to gather a group of ruling elites in a long-term and sustainable way by virtue of "talking about ideals"; in turn, it is impossible to maintain a group of ideal ruling groups with institutional constraints and incentives.

It is not contradictory to have ideals, constraints, and incentives.

If China's reform can make substantial progress in the above three aspects, China will not have any suspense to achieve modernization in all aspects of economy, society and so on. China's comprehensive national strength will also be among the best in the world.

The appeal of Chinese civilization will also go up the whole world.

China's international status will rise.

The pattern of competition between China and the United States will be radically changed.