China'S Economy Enters A New Stage Of Impulse Exploration

From the perspective of China's new economic normality, the trend of economic development in 2016 has entered a pulsatile exploration. The biggest feature of the new normal period is that China's economy has entered the structural spanformation period, and the dual forces of the two forces are facing the new impetus of economic growth and the gradual weakening of the old power. At the same time, the global economic governance structure is also reconstructing, the old equilibrium is broken, the new equilibrium is still being established, and the market turbulence is inevitable.

Professor Ba Shu song's speech in the main points of his speech in 2016, China's economy has entered a pulsatile bottom. For the current economic trend in China, Ba Shu song has used the pulse bottom to describe. He believes that from the perspective of China's new economic normality, the trend of economic development in 2016 has entered a pulsatile exploration. The biggest feature of the new normal period is that China's economy has entered the structural spanformation period, and the dual forces of the two forces are facing the new impetus of economic growth and the gradual weakening of the old power. At the same time, the global economic governance structure is also reconstructing, the old equilibrium is broken, the new equilibrium is still being established, and the market turbulence is inevitable.

Ba Shu song believes that since the 90s of last century, China's economic growth has fluctuated. From the 1997 to 1998 Asian financial crisis, China has adopted a series of adjustments after the Asian financial crisis. For example, the share reform of state-owned banks, joining the WTO and the activation of the real estate market have contributed to the longest cycle of China's longest economic growth until 2007. In 2008, the sub-prime crisis of the United States came into contact with the economy. The economy dropped steeply and the rate of growth dropped precipitous to the low point in 2009. At this time of 2009, a package of stimulus policies represented by 4 trillion was introduced, which led to a significant rebound in the economy. The first round of the first quarter of 2010 reached the high point of recovery, and finally, the intensity of the stimulus weakened, and the economic growth rate also gradually declined. Until now, the fall is still in the trend. From now on, the downward trend will be basically bottomed out by the end of this year. This is the first big judgement, and we can see very clear fluctuation rhythm in the fluctuation cycle of the whole economy.

So what is the status of this year? Ba Sheng Song said: "my personal judgment, that is more like the first quarter of 2010 economic growth from high to gradually fall to the bottom of this stage, the current stage I call it a pulse bottom, in this stage of exploration, economic data become better or worse will be very frequent spanformation, the fourth quarter of last year began to increase fiscal stimulus, so the first quarter of this year's economic recovery, then see the policy effect, policy stimulus intensity weakened, so the two quarter may fall. Similarly, from the price point of view, the upstream commodity prices pick up and drive the profits of the upstream enterprises to improve. profit It may be down again, so this is a very important feature of the bottoming stage. CPI is also the same reason, because of the shortage of supply, the cold weather, seasonal demand and so on, so the price of pork and vegetables is rising very fast, so it promotes the rise of CPI in the previous stage, but the CPI of non food is very weak, so this is also an important feature of the typical economic exploration stage.

The reform of the supply side of the enterprises at the seminar site is the discovery of personalized demand, according to Ba Shu song. At present, the pressure of China's economic capacity to absorb excess capacity is still very large, but from the current progress, there are still twists and turns, because some progress seems to be temporary success, because after the production capacity, the supply and demand of the market has improved and the price has picked up, which may stimulate enterprises in the excess capacity industry to resume work.

Ba Shi Song said that when the state vigorously promoted the supply side reform, enterprises also had their own supply side reform. He mentioned that some entrepreneurs in Shenzhen, Qingdao and Guangdong believed that they understood the supply side reform, that is, as the side of the enterprise, as the market supply side, to determine what changes the market customers need, and the owners found that the demand of the whole household appliance industry began to become personalized after overcapacity, so they had to identify this personalized demand, and make adjustments through the internal organizational structure to adapt to the supply ability of personalized demand, which is the supply side of the enterprise level.

For example, modern people have a fast pace of work, and when they come home after work, they often start to wash clothes at eleven in the evening, but at this time they start washing clothes, but the washing machines are noisy, so the family members are disgusted with their neighbors, and some neighbors hate it. A home enterprise has watched this demand for noise reduction. The engine system of the washing machine has been slightly improved, and the noise of the washing machine has been reduced. After such a change, although the sales volume has been greatly reduced, the profit interval has increased rapidly. Therefore, the process of going stock to capacity is actually a process of "supply side" to adapt to the new changes of the market in the process of going to inventory. "The process of going to the inventory" is also a process of new changes. It is a process of "changing the supply side" to adapt to the new changes in the market. It is a process of changing the price of the washing machine to the market. It is also a process of "changing the supply side" to adapt to the new changes in the market. To break the rigid payment constraints to the long "three go" Ba Shu song believes that to go to capacity, go inventory, deleveraging, in fact, that is, through high capital costs in fact also implies a high risk premium of financial products, one after another "detonating" a process. For example, the excess real estate in those three or four line cities that go to stock can not be repaid if the house is not sold. So going to capacity and going to stock itself also means that there is a shuffle in the financial market. This process has also been shown in the market, for example, the case of Guangxi's nonferrous metals and other public bond defaults in the market in 2016.

Only by breaking the "bad" company, will the market enhance its discriminatory power, and the capital will flow to a healthier company, and the cost of investment will come down. Therefore, if we do not break the restrictions of rigid payment, the differentiation of capital flows in the market will be very difficult. However, according to the current situation, this situation is still hard to avoid. For example, last year's stock market crash, one of the reasons that finally prompted the decision makers to go to the rescue market is that if the stock market continues to stop down, it may lead to the rigid payment of the financial products of the bank being broken without order, because the public will think that the bank's financial products are rigid payment, and the actual situation may be that some products are related to the stock market. If the rigid payment is broken after the stock market down, it will affect the market's confidence in the banking system.

From the last few months in 2016, we can see that the rebound in capital and real estate investment has promoted the short-term rebound of steel prices and coal prices. The risk of default in the overcapacity industry has been alleviated, but the credit overshoot and real estate investment are difficult to sustain. Moreover, the debt problems of these surplus industries are hard to come back. Therefore, in the second half of the year, if the economy falls again, credit risk will rise again.

However, Professor Ba also suggested that although it is imperative to go to capacity to stock, it should be well prepared at the same time, because the production of excess capacity will also directly or indirectly drag the growth of the economy. For example, the output of crude steel in the 2015 years has declined, which has decreased by 2.2% compared with the same period last year, and the coal output has dropped by 4.9%. If the annual output reduction is 10% in the next three years, the annual growth rate of GDP will be directly reduced by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points. At the same time, the production of overcapacity will also raise the market slightly. unemployment rate The five largest overcapacity industry accounts for 3.90% of urban employment. If we cut production capacity by 30% in the next three years, 3 million people will be laid off. According to the 1998 experience, laid-off workers may end up with 1/3 unemployment, that is, 100 or ten million people are unemployed, accounting for 0.3% of the urban employment population. They need to increase the intensity of social security and provide new jobs.

The real estate industry has become a second-hand housing dominated housing market for the real estate industry, Ba Shu song believes that in 2015, real estate sales continued to rise, but the new construction area continued negative growth, which shows that the market has voted with feet shows that there are obvious excess inventory of real estate. However, more importantly, even in the 2015 years of sale scissors difference is so huge, no matter what kind of caliber calculation, the 2015 year end of the real estate inventory continued to increase at the beginning of the year, which means that the real estate to inventory pressure. The first quarter of this year continues to be this situation, the area of real estate for sale is still increasing.

　　 Ba Shu song Using charts and charts to do a simulation calculation, real estate is really going to inventory. On the one hand, the sales area of demand side needs to be increased. On the other hand, the new supply area of the supply side needs to be further reduced. From the demand side, the total area of commercial housing sales in 2015 was 1 billion 280 million square meters, which was close to the historical peak level of 1 billion 300 million square meters in 2013. Taking into account the slow growth of urban population and the decline in sales area in the second half of 2015, we expect that the sales area of commercial housing will still increase in 2016, but the growth rate will not be too high. From the supply side, if the real estate wants to go to stock, the new construction area needs to continue to decline. According to the calculation, if the real estate inventory is to be substantially reduced, the growth rate of the new construction area should be further reduced to -20% under the assumption of 5% sales area growth rate (-14% in 2015), and the corresponding inventory area will increase by -5.7% (2.6% in 2015).

Therefore, under the condition of relatively stable sales scale, there is a possibility of increasing stock pressure. But at the same time, there are some profound changes in the real estate market.

First, from the industry point of view, the real estate market has spanformed from a new market dominated by a single hand to a stock market dominated by second-hand housing. After the overall housing market balance, the spanaction of second-hand housing has become more important than the new housing. There is a very big difference in the price formation mechanism between second-hand housing and Yishoufang. At the same time, the impact of the same regulation policy will be quite different, because the whole market structure has changed greatly, which has led to a change in the mechanism of price reaction to the policy, which is a market dominated by second-hand housing.

Second, population change. The population in the first tier cities is slowing down, and even negative growth has occurred in Shanghai. At this time, tightening policy will not only cause turnover but also push down house prices.

Third, changes in base volume. At present, the turnover of the real estate industry has exceeded one hundred thousand billion yuan, and the industry fluctuation has great impact on the economy. Under such a huge basis, the potential macro risks of the regulation of the property market in the first tier cities are not only related to the industry and economic development of the first tier cities, but also to the national property market and economic development. For example, in the first half of this year's economic recovery, some foreign media said that China ultimately depends on real estate, or the same way. Indeed, the United States is also the same. After the real estate industry has reached a certain scale, the fluctuation of the industry will affect the whole industry's fluctuation.

Fourth, the driving force changes. In the past few years, the real estate industry has been talking about rigid demand, and now most of them have become demand for improvement. The improvement of demand is very sensitive to policy regulation. This round of regulation is the second set of improvement needs of the first tier cities. Therefore, the policy has slowed down and the housing prices of these major cities have continued to rise. In fact, the housing affordability of residents has decreased significantly.