The Stock Market Will Go Out Of The Current Market.

Since the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2900 points in May 9th, stock market sentiment has been relatively weak. Even a small drop can lead to a huge negative speculation.

Yesterday, the Shanghai composite index was only 0.23% lower than the previous day's closing, down 0.7% from the opening day, and it was linked to MSCI's delay in bringing China's mainland stock market into account and raising interest rates in the US dollar.

Others suspect that the reform momentum is insufficient and that the policy direction of stabilizing the stock market is shaken.

I believe that the current

The whole state is healthy. The Shanghai Composite Index falls below 2900 points, not a reversal signal, which does not obstruct the overall situation.

The policy factors and economic factors that support the good market have not changed. The market will remain flexible and dynamic on the basis of the current market, and will gradually pick up along with the structural reform of supply side and especially the early harvest of state-owned enterprise reform.

At the same time, regulators will continue to strictly regulate the market order according to law and ensure a solid institutional foundation for the operation of the stock market.

This year is

The key year for structural reform is not only in the next two years, but in a period of about five years.

It is not surprising that the current reform shows a certain "stalemate". It is necessary to change the mind, start the layout, play the first three punches, and form some traction leading ones, which will take time to accumulate.

Positive signals have been released: Guangdong, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanxi, Anhui and Shandong have launched a structural reform plan of supply side, and all regions will implement the strategy of addition, subtraction and multiplication according to different actual situations.

The reform of state-owned enterprises is being intensified. Many enterprises have taken substantial steps to curb the blind expansion impulse, shrink the front line and highlight the main business. Some have shifted from "reducing quality and upgrading quality" to "double quality and quantity".

In May 18th, Premier Li Keqiang chaired the executive session of the State Council, and supervised the central enterprises to deepen reform and slim down their health.

The work of making up short boards and reducing costs is also proceeding in an orderly way.

It is clear that "at present and in the future, the supply side is the main contradiction, and the structural reform of the supply side must be strengthened and must be the main direction of the attack."

The demand side plays an important role in building up the environment to solve the main contradiction. Investment expansion can only be moderate, not excessive, and must not be replaced by the principal or subordinate.

Based on this, the expansion of the demand side can not be carried out in search of a sword, and can not be carried by the old methods. It should be measured in terms of "bicycle principle", that is, to maintain the speed of "no fall" and "continuous progress".

Under the premise of maintaining the growth rate of 6.5% to 7%, we should focus on structural reform, especially the structural reform on the supply side.

Further, stock market construction should be based on improving market mechanism and strengthening market forces.

Form a complete financing function, fully protect investors' rights and interests, and improve the quality of information disclosure.

Supervision is carried out according to law to crack down on illegal activities.

At present, efforts should be made to build basic systems such as issuing, delisting and trading.

With good market order, market stability is expected to be guaranteed.

On this basis, the stock market will be able to better support the reform of state-owned enterprises and support the structural reform of supply side.

The stock market itself should also do well in the structural reform of the supply side. The foothold is to provide a fair and just system support, provide quality investment and financing services, provide efficient supervision, establish a fair pricing mechanism, and safeguard the independent pricing power of Chinese capital.

From the stock market, of course, we must serve the "five major tasks", namely, capacity, leverage, inventory, cost reduction and compensation.

The 5 phrases of "five tasks" have specific policy implications. They should not be literal and literal, but should be understood and implemented on the basis of improving the quality of the economy, optimizing the economic structure and stabilizing the anticipation of reform.

For example, "deleveraging", the central government explicitly explained that it means to flood the water on the macro level, break the rigid payment in an orderly way on the micro level, and dispose illegal funds and other chaos in accordance with the law, and standardize the market order.

I think that is to remove "unreasonable leverage" and "unreasonable leverage" rather than no leverage.

The author believes that whether or not MSCI will be incorporated into China's mainland stock market and whether the US dollar raises interest rate and interest rate is not the key factor that determines the operation trend of China's stock market. What early harvest can be provided by the supply side structural reform is the key factor to boost stock market confidence and support the healthy development of the stock market.

The structural reform of supply side is a war that can not afford to lose. We must push forward step by step. We must resolutely do what is right and work well. With the emergence of "early harvest", the stock market will go out of the current situation.

The author expects that "early harvest" is not far away, and the first bright spot is most likely to appear in the field of state-owned enterprise reform.