Britain'S Retreat From Europe Will Have A Real Negative Impact On The Global Fashion Industry.

London's "withdrawal from the European Union" seems to be an absurd idea when it first entered the British parliament debate in early 2015.

In fact, it is unlikely that the idea of voting for the public will be heard, let alone the possibility of Britain's return to Europe (Brexit).

But 18 months later, there was only a few weeks away from the referendum against the agenda. The unprecedented immigration crisis and the entire eurozone continued to help Greece and other countries get rid of the debt crisis, and public sentiment was constantly stirred up.

The results of the polls are disturbing, and David Cameron, the prime minister, has put his political future on the ballot of "stay in the European Union" in full.

The British government's many factions, major banks, enterprises and other governments have warned against the endless risk of "leaving the European Union".

In last week's official statement of G7 group (the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Britain), the group announced that Britain's withdrawal from Europe would "pose a serious threat to global economic growth". 7

Meanwhile, the current British Chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne (George Osborne) said that Britain's retreat from Europe would create a "direct and profound" economic shock, or it would push the UK forward for 1 years in two years, reduce its position to 820 thousand, and reduce its GDP growth rate by 6%.

But the latest poll shows that the vote may be quite close.

In addition, Britain will return to Europe or to the UK and the world.

Industry has a negative impact.

In 2014, the British fashion industry contributed about 26 billion pounds (about 250 billion 69 million of the current price) to the country.

The most direct impact will be the depreciation of the pound.

At present, debates against euro have already had a significant impact on currency exchange rate.

In February this year, Cameron officially announced that it would consider a referendum on whether to withdraw from the European Union, and the pound against the US dollar immediately dropped to its lowest level in 7 years.

According to HSBC (HSBC) data, if the British people finally vote to "leave", the value of the pound may further fall to 20%.

For Britain

In terms of the retailer, retreat or will have a significant impact on the bottom line of its profit, because its mass production has been outsourced to countries such as China using the US dollar for payment (according to the data of the Financial Services Company UBS UBS group, UK, UK)

About 3/4 of domestic retailers are sourced from Asia.

The weakness of the pound will increase the cost of such pactions, and British enterprises either take the cost of themselves or pfer them to consumers.

On the other hand, foreign brands, such as Burberry, which have a significant proportion of foreign sales, will also be affected.

"If the cost of these brands is mainly paid in pounds, they will get a lot of euros and dollars from abroad, and they will need to buy large quantities of pounds in large quantities," explains Luca Solca, Exane BNP Paribas luxury leader in Paris.

The depreciation of the pound or the benefit of the tourism industry will greatly increase the consumption of tourist destinations in London.

But similarly, the weakness of the pound will also force the international brand to raise the price of its products in the UK, and any other gains may be offset.

There is no doubt that Britain's retreat from Europe will bring more uncertainty to the world, which has been deeply troubled by economic growth risks and further bruise consumer confidence.

Of course, Fflur Roberts, a luxury analyst at Euromonitor, said British consumers "will also reduce their confidence in wealth."

This will restrict the spending of the British people at home and abroad, especially in areas where the US dollar is strong, and dampen Britain and similar international fashion brands.

But if we finally leave the EU, British consumers are not the only victims.

If the retreat from Europe becomes a reality, the resulting changes in trade rules will also have a major impact on thousands of fashion companies opened in the UK and will spread to the global fashion industry.

Britain, as a member of the European Union, has cut a significant number of export tariffs. This is no small matter. According to the Ministry of trade and industry, the total export volume of British textiles and clothing to the EU in 2015 amounted to 5 billion 800 million pounds (about 58 billion 804 million yuan now).

European Union supporters argue that Britain will be able to renegotiate the trade agreement (similar to Norway, a non EU member state), and still enjoy favourable terms of trade in global market pactions.

But at the moment, no one can tell what the new agreement will be like and how long it will take effect.

Roberto Azevedo, director general of the world trade organization, recently warned: "almost all foreign trade in the UK is more or less negotiated in some way", while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that any renegotiation could be "a protracted war". Roberto, Azev.

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Barack Obama, for example, has unequivocally pointed out that if Britain really "returns to Europe" and wants to re establish trade agreements with the United States, it will have to "back row". Obama,

"Any additional obligations and any possible barriers to trade are bad things for the luxury industry," said Mario Ortelli, a luxury analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, a consultancy.

Finally, the euro retreat is also of little help to London's world-famous fashion education system.

The European Union has allocated scientific research funds, many plans to support innovation and bridging fashion designers, manufacturers and technology partners, which has benefited British fashion education.

London's leading fashion colleges have attracted talented students from the European Union, who pay less than international students from other regions.

Many students chose to stay in the UK to establish their own fashion companies.

Just look at some of the most exciting designers in the London Fashion week. They all come from the European Union, such as Roksanda Ilinic, Marques (Almeida) and Greece (Mary Katrantzou), contributing to Serbia's reputation as an innovation and design hub.

"When the cost of living and work in London has already created tremendous pressure on our creative industries, we need to open more opportunities, not the possibility of closing opportunities," said Frances Corner, head of London College of Fashion, University of the Arts in London. "This referendum bet is too big not only to have a huge impact on London."

The European Union's open border enables C line, a Paris based company, to operate normally at both ends of the English Channel (Phoebe Philo, the creative director of the brand, works in the London office).

"If the United Kingdom withdraws from the EU, where brands will establish headquarters or creative departments will have to rethink," Solca said.

Although the euro will not lead to the return of all European Union holders who return to Europe with the British visa, Ortelli said how the return of Europe would affect the free flow of personnel between other parts of the European Union and the United Kingdom.

If the new regulation is bad for people to enter different countries, it will also be disadvantageous to fashion and luxury goods industry, Ortelli continued.

Earlier this month, more than 280 British creative personages, including BoF editor in chief and chief executive officer Imran Amed, editor in chief of the British version Vogue, Alexandra Shulman and designer Vivienne Westwood jointly sent a joint letter to support the UK staying in the EU.

A survey by the The Creative Industries Federation found that 96% of the members of the alliance, including those in University of the Arts in London, supported "stay in the EU", focusing on entering the EU market and the flow of talent.

To sum up, Britain's retreat from Europe will weaken the pound, weaken consumer confidence, subvert trade rules, disrupt free flow of talents, and adversely affect cooperation, innovation and prosperity, all of which have adverse effects on the UK and the global fashion industry.

The referendum on whether to retain EU membership will be held in June 23, 2016. The deadline for registration is June 7th.