What Are The Holes And Opportunities Of The Electricity Supplier Industry In 2016?

Cross border, sea Amoy, mother and baby, live broadcast pformation, net red Economics...

From 2015 to 2016,

The industry has taken on many new concepts, and many new players have been pursuing VC. From outside, the whole industry can be counted as a group of flowers.

However, in the second quarter of the year, besides

The main business share in China's stock market, Jingdong, vip.com and jumei.com, is not performing well.

The mainstream self operated B2C companies have been experiencing various problems in terms of traffic, user retention and supply chain.

While Alibaba's performance is beautiful, the growth of GMV, representing the whole industry's prosperity, has slowed down significantly.

Will the electricity supplier industry be good in 2016? What are the opportunities? Where is the opportunity? With this problem, nearly a month ago, Chinese entrepreneurs met many people in Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou. They heard some Tucao and broke the news. They also heard some good news. Here, the Chinese enterprise elder brother shared several small trends about the electricity supplier industry in 2016.

"The fate of self B2C"

Twenty years ago, the electricity supplier was divided into two groups, represented by Ebay platform mode, and Amazon as the representative of the proprietary mode.

In China, the representatives of these two models are the duopoly of electronic business: Alibaba VS Jingdong.

In addition, in the more vertical clothing, cosmetics category, as well as vip.com, jumei.com and other self operated electricity supplier listed companies.

From 2015 to 2016, in terms of performance and share price, China's own B2C days are not so good. China's electricity supplier competition is too fierce. It is not easy to do B2C in vertical industry.

First look at the "vip.com" stock. When it was listed in 2012, vip.com was less than $400 million when its market capitalization was the lowest, then the stock price rose all the way. By April 10, 2015, vip.com's stock price was at the highest point in history, and its market value was $17 billion 879 million. In December 30, 2015, vip.com's market value was $8 billion 835 million, which was nearly half of its highest point.

Today, vip.com's market value is hovering around $6 billion.

Over the past year, the market value of vip.com has been cut down. Many articles have analyzed the reasons. Nothing more than that: revenue growth, active user volume growth continued to decline significantly, while new user acquisition costs are rising.

In the mainstream self operated electricity supplier, the frequency of vip.com's user shopping is better than Dangdang and poly America, which is only lower than that of Jingdong.

This trend is very clear, vertical B2C, even in a category to achieve a heavy vertical invincible, its shopping frequency is always weaker than the integrated platform, new user acquisition cost is far higher than the latter.

Look at the 2016 Q1 quarterly report, vip.com's revenue and profits have a good growth. But in May 19th, after the announcement of the earnings report, vip.com continued to drop 12.19%.

Analysts believe that "vip.com announced the reduction of customer spending" is the main reason for this decline.

In the first quarter, customer expenditure averaged 337 yuan, down 8% from the same period last year.

Vip.com has been able to maintain high unit price because of its high unit price.

Vip.com has the advantages of supply chain, user sticky and repeat purchase.

The reason for the drop in the unit price is the increase in the sales volume of baby products, beauty cosmetics and health care products on the vip.com international business platform.

CEO Shen Ya's explanation is that young consumers have increased.

In fact, vip.com wants revenue and profits to continue to grow. It is necessary to acquire new users and expand new categories.

Look at the United States, in order to completely eradicate the shadow of counterfeit goods, poly America began its business adjustment in the third quarter of 2014, and abandoned the platform business to pure self run.

In the 2015 fiscal year, poly US revenue grew by nearly 90%, while net profit dropped by nearly 70%. Under the same scale revenue, the profit margin of platform business was high, while the profit margin of self operated business was low.

At the same time, the frequency of user shopping in the United States is still lower than that of vip.com, much lower than that of Jingdong, and the cost of acquiring new users is also high.

Finally, take a look at the boss of the self operated electricity supplier. The Jingdong of the integrated platform, in May 10th, after Jingdong's Q1 earnings announcement in 2016, Jingdong continued to fall by 7%.

Since its listing in 2014, Alibaba's stock price chart has been steeper compared to the $190 billion Alibaba after the $240 billion market value of the listing. The market value of the stock market has been greatly oscillating in the range of US $40 billion to US $30 billion, which proves that the capital market is not good enough for its business model.

Jingdong's recent slump has been said to be unprofitable. Jingdong has been losing money since listing, losing 9 billion 400 million in 2015 and 290 million in 2016 Q1.

In the view of Chinese enterprises, the market mentality of Jingdong's share price decline is not afraid of your losses, but your growth slows down.

After entering 2015, the growth rate of Jingdong GMV is obviously declining rapidly: Q1 is 99%, Q2 is 82%, Q3 is 71%, Q4 is 69%, and by 2016, this figure is 55%.

Obviously, GMV is not easy to grow at high speed, especially in proprietary business GMV. While the growth of the third party platform business is relatively easy, but the platform business accounts for more than 50%, Jingdong's user experience experience is a bit difficult. So by the year 2016, the proportion of platform business to Q1 has been reduced to 41%.

Obviously, we want to maintain high growth and maintain user experience. Jingdong is also very tangled.

However, the online shelf is infinite, physical storage space is always limited, and no longer able to complete any business, Jingdong self SKU200 million is approaching the limit. The growth engine of Jingdong will be open platform in the future.

Of course, the open platform and self run are two kinds of games. If you want to do an open platform, you will have to start shop with heavyweight brands, which is also related to competition with ALI.

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The demographic dividend of e-commerce channel replacement is gradually receding. China's online shopping population has exceeded 400 million, and growth has slowed down. Therefore, Alibaba's GMV growth rate is also declining.

For small and medium-sized players, China's market competition is bad.

On the side of the Big Mac Alibaba, the independent B2C will continue to grow in a category after they have taken a firm foothold. It is bound to acquire new users, expand new products, increase shopping frequency and increase the unit price of customers.

Note that the two big hot subdivisions of self operated cross-border electricity providers and maternal and child businesses, which began to boom in 2014, are just as safe as escaping from this fate.

Like cross-border electricity suppliers, the first is a vertical electricity supplier, which is called "imported goods". This category is currently suspended and the future is even more obscure.

As for mother and baby, the leader does not want to say that he is an e-commerce company.

Relying on 68 pieces of diapers, burning the money to get the entrance and the user's honey buds, after obtaining several rounds of financing, they are eager to get rid of the label of "electricity supplier" and tell the new story. They invest in the leisure hall, and cooperate with the United States and China.

The Matthew effect of China's electricity supplier market is much stronger than that of the United States.

In the United States, Amazon's market share is 30%, TOP500's electricity supplier, market share has not been more than 80%, each vertical B2C has its stable market.

In China, the Ali family accounts for 70% of the market share, the ability to aggregate traffic is quite scary. Vip.com, jumei.com, Dangdang, 1 stores, Amazon China and other vertical categories of large companies add up to about 10%, and the remaining tens of thousands of electricity providers, even 5% of the market share can not be accounted for.

The only one that can compete with ALI is Jingdong, which relies on self built logistics and user experience. It accounts for 15% of the market share. After all, the comprehensive shopping platform has advantages in terms of user retention and acquisition, but as mentioned earlier, Jingdong wants to further expand its platform.

"Ali and brand's wild hope"

Because of the decline in demographic dividend and the Matthew effect of the market, the vertical self employed B2C have suffered so much. Are there any happy people in this industry?

In the eyes of most people, since the emergence of Jingdong, which is known as a cheap genuine product, and after Taobao launched its B2C business, the brands began to sell directly on the Internet.

However, after talking with several costumes and beauty brands, the company discovered that in the past year, they have had a very good growth in the electricity supplier channel. For example, Nike, the growth of e-commerce channels in recent two years is over 100%.

"Many big brands have started to manage the inventory of online and offline channels in recent two years, and the direct supply rate has been increasing."

Chou Wenbin, a business operator of CEO, recalled that the first authorization he received in 2007 was PHILPS, the Taobao online store of PHILPS. In order to compete with Jingdong, he liked to play the concept of "direct supply rate 100%", saying that the goods he sold were brand direct suppliers. At that time, Jingdong received goods from two or three dealers, and the direct supply rate was 0.

PHILPS's online shop is just testing the water line, setting up an image and combating dealers fleeing goods.

The stock management of big brands is quite elaborate. At that time, the amount of online was too small, and the brand owners would not change the supply chain because of an online shop. That was a huge change.

Brands are now afraid to ignore online channels, but it is still quite difficult to pform the supply chain.

The head of the electricity supplier of a women's clothing enterprise told the Chinese enterprise elder brother that in 2015 they were double eleven, they oversold 20 million of the goods, that is, after the users took the payment, they found that the stock could not be invoked, and finally all the refund.

"The corresponding SKU in the consumer's order is available in the warehouse, but the actual inventory is scattered in stores and warehouses around the country, and it has not been pferred to Tmall's warehouse. Tmall does not allow sales without physical warehousing, eventually resulting in no shipment."

Most people do not know the data is that today, 4 trillion of the electricity supplier pactions in 2015, the proportion of direct sales of brands accounted for less than 10%, that is to say, a lot of online goods are sold by dealers and market sellers, of course, brand dealers are direct + affiliate mode, dealers take a lot of sales tasks.

However, online channels can directly touch consumers, and many brands want to pform the supply chain and make direct online business. Therefore, the market will continue to grow in the coming years.

Therefore, the company that focuses on this market has a pretty good life.

In 2014, the scale of China's brand e-commerce market had reached 260 billion yuan, of which the cosmetics market accounted for about 10%.

At present, the largest market in this market is the first one in the US stock market, Bao Zun and Hangzhou Yok Ke.

The most famous is the beauty of Papi sauce and the beauty of beauty.

They are equivalent to a brand online dealer, the Tmall flagship store on the brand operation line.

Take Bao Zun as an example, there are more than 100 partners, including PHILPS, Nike, Microsoft, Panasonic, HUAWEI mobile phones and so on.

There are more than 60 partners in beauty makeup, including Maybelline, honey Buddha, Shi Hua Kong, Lancome and so on.

The investors behind beauty and makeup are Ali, and Ali hopes to get closer to brands.

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Instead of just being an online distributor, the electricity supplier is also helping brands pform their supply chain.

"If you put your big warehouse, brand electricity supplier, regional warehouse, even store inventory together, it will be amazing.

Before the store put one hundred clothes, consumers could only see one hundred, but now it is different, there are one hundred stores, there are ten thousand pieces in the warehouse, consumers can see ten thousand items in the shop, and ten thousand items can be seen in the store, the sales opportunities are much larger than the original ones, and the turnover of inventory will become faster.

Chou Wenbin said that today, Bao Zun is making brand wide supply chain management to enhance their sales volume.

And Ali CEO Xiaoyao recently said a concept is "retail all channels", including not only the supply chain, but also the marketing and user management, recently, brand companies are indeed doing the homework.

"We bought Youku and developed wireless search. Our UC headlines, including our investment in micro-blog, all hope to help our brand not only to establish a sales platform, but also to provide a marketing matrix for everyone, and consumers are everywhere in the wireless era.

Loyal online shoppers will not see products on the e-commerce online shopping platform for 24 hours. They may play games or chat. How to help brands reach consumers on different types of consumer carriers and how to get data across platforms?

One of the most important prerequisites for achieving full channel sales is to achieve user management in all channels, no matter where the user is, we can identify this user, be able to track this user, touch the user, and interact with this user, which is the great opportunity we see today.

Ali is striving to pay more attention to brands, and Jingdong also wants to do so.

Alibaba just wants to take a platform to face traditional businesses and brands. Ma Yun's idea is that every company should have its own electricity supplier department, and learn to use various Internet tools to actively pform itself.

Liu Qiangdong's theory of sugarcane believes that enterprises are comfortable with brand and design, manufacturing, marketing, trading, warehousing, distribution, and after sales.

In the 3C and the big power category, Jingdong has arranged procurement and marketing, which is indeed quite powerful. What the Chinese enterprises know is that many two or three line 3C manufacturers are trying to get their products into the self marketing system of Jingdong, so that they do not have to worry about sales.

Back to the essence of retail, 3C and home appliances, SKU limited, the brand is relatively concentrated, has scale effect, is recognized as suitable for centralized procurement to do self marketing category.

Non standard products such as clothing, shoes and hats, hundreds of millions of SKU, are mostly made by brands directly into department stores.

All along, Jingdong is good at making standard products, and Ali is good at non-standard products, which is already a consensus of the industry.

But interestingly, more and more brands want to reach consumers directly through the Internet and increase the online direct supply rate.

Even in the 3C industry, the top businesses, such as apple and Samsung, are the millet and oppo that have risen to the Chinese market in the past two years, and HUAWEI, which has entered the consumer business from the operator's business, have not given all the marketing to after-sale links to Jingdong as Liu Qiangdong said. Instead, they only regard Jingdong as a front line, and have been struggling to manage their own official mall, Tmall store, and all kinds of channels under the line.

Ali VS Jingdong, who is the favorite of branding business, who is the winner of the next season?

"Is internet economics an opportunity or a hole?"

First sharing two gossip is all about content.

Jumei.com has recently increased efforts to smash money to do community and live broadcast. It is the determination of Chen ou and mogujie.com June.

For a long time, the marketing events led by Chen, Europe, which are highly valued after 80 years, have made a lot of market fees for the poly American Province, and envy the colleagues. But in 2015, Chen Ou was no longer satisfied with "salt for himself". He hoped that more people would bring salt to him. He was deeply stimulated by Xiao Hong and mogujie.com.

It sounds like the content is king's rhythm. Don't worry. Look at second gossip again. What the Chinese enterprise elder brother heard is: "a mature mother and infant community wants to realize the traffic volume and become an electricity supplier. In 2015, it pressed a lot of goods and lost about 50000000."

The maternal and child electricity supplier in 2015 is almost a gesture of hand to hand combat. The fierce external price war makes the sales volume larger, and the upstream bargaining power is stronger. The companies with high efficiency in warehousing, distribution and after-sale are winning, and the acceleration of strength is eliminated.

Chinese enterprises hear more spicy gossip is that the price of diapers is too low, some mother and infant e-commerce sales are not delivered, but in order to follow the price war, can only get some unidentified sources.

"The boss wants all things, how to live, the next person to complete the KPI, the dog to get a fake.

The external pressure is too great, so it is easy to lose control inside the start-up company.

The professional electricity supplier company is so difficult that a community specializing in content wants to cash in. How can it be so easy? Between content and cash flow, it seems that 1 kilometers are not enough, and it has been discovered that 10000 kilometers have not been reached.

Of course, from 2015 to the present, there are a lot of fans and fans in the social network. The sales miracle is also true. Nowadays, the top ten shops in women's clothing category of Taobao C store account for more than half of the net red shops.

"Net red can find the difference between micro-blog traffic and Taobao traffic."

Mogujie.com founder June said so.

Internet portal is attracting more traffic on social networks and locking fans. Of course, it is far cheaper and more stable than all kinds of advertising and marketing tools provided by Taobao.

Let fans choose the style that they want to wear and reproduce it, which is more efficient and cheaper than traditional women's clothing enterprises.

In the view of the elder brother, the economics of Internet is the source of traffic in the final analysis.

About the net red traffic bonus, Ali CEO xiaoxiaozi's interpretation is: "everyone is concerned about where the traffic is coming? Is it expensive? Today, in the era of wireless Internet, consumer groups are there, the entire flow is created, not bought, traffic is brought by content, planning and entrepreneurship."

He means simply that the way of running traffic has been out, and now we need to use a new generation of tools to solve it.

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All along, what Ali wants to do has not changed. The whole channel of Xiaoyao Zi is to provide a platform.

Before the "net red", Ali Li pushed out the brand of Amoy, so that the whole world saw the power of Taobao channel, the seven grid, the city of angels, the Korean clothes house, the broken silk and so on.

All of them used geometric progression to scare the traditional brands.

In 2010, the VC of the whole world was looking at the electricity supplier, and all the top 100 shops in Taobao were VC.

"At that time, the hope of VC was that a new brand could emerge from the new channel, and the brand could expand from Taobao to the level of independent IPO.

5 years passed, and so far the success of the brand has not yet come out.

Taobao's online channel bonus has irrigated these brands, but they have not done much.

Jin Wenji, managing director of Junlian capital, is not unreasonable.

Since 2015, seven brands such as gege, Kelan diamond, Tai Po, Yin man and so on have all chosen to reshape the supply chain. They either accept traditional enterprises to buy shares or even hold shares, or seek to open offline stores to try to upgrade their brands.

In the Amoy brand of Ali channel initial traffic dividends to eat clean, want to "clean out" to further upgrade the supply chain, "net red" just take the stick, continue to Ali new story.

No matter how the platform changes, the core of retailing is good goods and strong supply chain.

If the goods are good and the operation is poor, the company will grow, but it will be slower.

However, the supply chain will not work.

It's all in vain.

The content is good, at most is a good media, the distance from the good electricity supplier is still 10000 kilometers away.